Posted on 12/25/2003 5:07:46 PM PST by slagish
They will wait until they have killed Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf to launch thier next attack. I have no doubt it will be of the biological, chemical, or most likely nuclear variety. OBL and al-Zawahri continue to operate from Pakistan and they want to make sure that Musharraf goes the way of Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud who was was killed September 9, 2001, by a bomb inside a video camera during an interview at his headquarters with two Tunisian al Qaeda operatives posing as journalists. To this end there have been two assasination attempts on Musharraf in the past week, both of which he narrowly escaped. Once they are successfull at eliminating Musharraf I have no doubt they will launch their attack.
Incidentally if you read the report about the cancelled flights from Paris to LA the suspected terrorists who never boarded the planes are reportedly Tunisian.
I think there is also something very different about this "Code Orange," particularly since the standard for code orange today is a bit higher than it was several months ago. I also think that the LEO as coordinated through DHS is more in tune now than at any time since 09.11, and when they show signs of heightened concern, we need to be extra suspiscious, vigilent, cautious, etc., etc.
The fact that AQ hasn't used nukes or other WMD means nothing to me other than (a) they don't have them, yet; (b) they have them, but lack the logistics to use them at this time; (c) they have them and have decided for strategical reasons not to use them yet; or (d) they have tried to use them, but the attack was thwarted by LEO, DHS, our spooks, whatever.
As to why AQ would use jet planes and more conventional explosives as weapons if they in fact have WMD, my theory is two fold: Either AQ didn't have the weapons on 09.11 or lacked the logistical network to use them effectively; or they chose not to use them at the time because they don't have many and are saving the best for last. In other words, why use WMD on 09.11 when you can hijack a few airplanes and kill 3000 plus people -- a number which could have easily been ten times that amount if AQ had attacked the WTC an hour later that morning and crashed the planes into the middle of the towers rather than the upper floors. Jet planes are not as easy to hijack these days so AQ will use a different plan to obtain maximum death and destruction, which is why they may choose to use WMD at this time, because that may be all they have left.
In my view, AQ is not so much a terrorist organization as it is an army at war. The goal is not to terrorize, but to defeat the west and establish the Wasabi brand of Islam worldwide. An occassional car bomb, sniper attack, power outage, or airport shooting is not going to win the war when LEO can provide a less threatening explaination for the event. AQ will plan carefully and take their time between attacks so as to cause maximum death and destruction when the time is right. They used airplanes 09.11 because they could do so with relative ease. They may use WMD this time, because that's all they have left.
Lastly, I don't know whether these threatening internet posts are from one person or many, or whether the writers are members of AQ or AQ wannabees, or just kids looking for kicks or whether the purpose is to instill fear in the infidel or send messages to AQ cells. I do beleive, however, that the fact that AQ has not warned of attacks in the past is meaningless. The only thing worse than a catastophic attack in the USA would be advance warning of the attack and our inability to stop it.
I have also heard that, but in the absence of a link, I didn't want to include it in my analysis. I wonder if the pre-09.11 warnings had the same bravado as the recent warnings.
Why? Could they somehow get his nukes and use them against us?
Wilhelm Tell could probably explain it better, but here goes:
Since it's inception 711 years ago the Swiss Confederacy has had essentially a 100% draft, with every male citizen under 65 in the reserves. Currently this means that there is an assault rifle and ammo in virtually every Swiss house, next to the uniform. They can mobilize in under an hour. They have a very low crime rate! Would you want to burgle a house with an assault rifle armed resident???
This makes Switzerland the gun grabbers target #1.
The Pro-Tell movement is intended to thwart the gun grabbers.
On the nature of the current threat. I also agree there is "something" more that is undefinable, but real. Here is something that I'll bet most of you remember: There was a lot of talk amongst military folks a few years ago that the former USSR had a number of "Back-Pack" nukes they had smuggled into this country and prepositioned them during the cold war era. That of the 25 they supposedly hid, they had either lost or sold several to people who would pay, in a "cash poor" but "hardware wealthy" post USSR world, right after the fall of the communists. This is not a so called "dirty bomb. it is a nuclear device with a nominal yield of of about 1 kiloton or so....maybe a bit more. One kiloton is about 1000 tons of TNT. How much of downtown New York City would be destroyed in a blast of 1000 tons of explosive?
Speaking of "Hardware Wealthy" When I was attending the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare School, the instructors were telling us about the old USSR's favorite weapon that was roughly analogous to our delight with the claymore mine and it too, is a landmine, a chemical landmine. There were thousands and thousands of these chemical landmines just gathering dust in unprotected warehouses or bunkers in the former USSR. They are housed in a plastic casing or hull, non-ferrous and about the size and shape of a softball "base" used in physical education classes all over the country. They are designed to be set up in fields and or be command detonated by illiterate soviet privates and they even come with instructions that are pictures instead of written so anybody can use them! How comforting. You guys don't wanna know the effects of GB Soman on the unprotected nervous system. Soman is a nerve agent, very similar in nature to our own VX.
The left has been working to erode these freedoms. Some cantons allowed concealed-carry, but I think the leftists recently made concealed-carry illegal nationally. Now they want gun registration, and the left wants to do away with the citizen army and replace it with a "professional" army that will no doubt take its orders from the U.N. I suppose from that point the left will be free to re-organize the country along authoritarian lines. The left recently suffered an electoral defeat but they will not rest until every country is as "progressive" as Cuba or North Korea, so it is a constant struggle.
Pro-Tell's website is at: Pro-Tell
sorry it is not in English.
By the way, I have a friend who is the great-granddaughter of Wilhelm Tell, LOL, by that I mean that her ancestor was the man they used to model for both the statue and the coin of him!
And I know how serious the army is. There are deaths every year; they are not playing tin soldiers. My husband had permanent cigarette burns on his arms from "war games"; he would NOT talk. LOL.
I didn't know about Pro-Tell. Very interesting! And if you are Swiss yourself, Gruezi wohl!!
Back before WW I, there was a meeting of all the Heads of State of Europe or their representatives. During a break perhaps for a meal, the German Chancellor approached the Swiss Prime Minister and they had a little exchange of words. It went something like this:
Chancellor (CH from now on): I understand that every person in your country is in the militia.
Prime Minister (PM): Uh-Huh.
CH: and there are about 500,000 men at arms elegible to fight in your country?
PM: 'bout that, yup.
CH: So what are you going to do if I send my 2 MILLION guys across your passes and take your pitiful little country?
PM: weeeeellll I GUESS, I'd have to issue my guys four rounds apiece, we'll shoot 'em and then we'll all go home.
Nobody ever invaded the Swiss. The other Euro-TRASH may laugh at the Swiss, but they respect the skill of the Man-At-Arms. Another reason is those Swiss Banks that control much of the money flow siphoned off by European corruption.
I'm not sure about the numbers I'm terrible at math so I made sure the numbers added up. But you get the drift. I first learned this at a meeting of conservative educators some years ago. This is of course the kind of history that liberals hate to mention or even acknowledge. But the Swiss militia is historical fact and as I said, I modernized the verbiage but the meanings are clear and the same as history recorded.
A funny story was also repeated -- that when individuals in the army at the time were asked about an invasion by Hitler, they said that they might have to first shoot a few officers of their own first. I guess some were Nazi sympathizers.
The Swiss are fiercely independent, and I am sure, except for a few cowards and Nazi-philes, they would have put up a huge fight. Glad they never had to.
Also, I tend to believe my version because the time was pre First World War, not WW II and at that time air power wasn't quite sufficient to breach the alps as a sure bet. Not like it was the next time around and certainly not like today. Sure the passes are the key to an actual invasion with armor and anti-armor missiles (just a few) would lock 'em up, but not for too long.
Airborne troops don't need passes and neither do straight leg infantry or for that matter special operation guys. Couple all of that to technology as it stands today and the Swiss are toast in a real conflict. But there again, the banks would save them. It all comes down to money, in the end.
Anyway, the exchange took place pre-World War One, so I think the reference to the nazis is a little premature. Just a little.
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