Well it's good news through drug use always seems to have it's small ups and downs with apparently no reason. Until we see something like a greater than 33% decline then we can get excited.
Though as the parents start to be more and more Gen-Xers instead of the selfish, Divorce Prone, Could give a Rats A§§ about their children baby boomers I would expect drug use and all other problems with many kids have had in the past 20 years to decline.
The following is the original press release from the United States Department of Health & Human Services, which includes more information about the methods and results:
News Release
|
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, Dec. 19, 2003 |
Media Contacts:
ONDCP: Tom Riley, 202-395-6618
NIDA: Blair Gately, 301-443-6245 |
Teen Drug Abuse Declines Across Wide Front
Eleven Percent Reduction Exceeds President's Two-Year Goal
HHS Secretary Tommy G. Thompson and John P. Walters, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, today released results of the 2003 Monitoring the Future survey, showing an 11 percent decline in drug use by 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students over the past two years. The finding translates into 400,000 fewer teen drug users over two years.
When President Bush released his first National Drug Control Strategy in February 2002, he set aggressive national goals to reduce youth drug use by 10 percent in two years and 25 percent in five years. Today's release of the 2003 Monitoring the Future Study confirms that President Bush's two-year goal has been exceeded. Current use (past 30 days) of any illicit drug between 2001 and 2003 among students declined 11 percent, from 19.4 percent to 17.3 percent. Similar declines were seen for past year use (11 percent, from 31.8 percent to 28.3 percent) and lifetime use (9 percent, from 41 percent to 37.4 percent).
"Teen drug use has reached a level that we haven't seen in nearly a decade," Director Walters said. "This survey shows that when we push back against the drug problem, it gets smaller. Fewer teens are using drugs because of the deliberate and serious messages they have received about the dangers of drugs from their parents, leaders, and prevention efforts like our National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign. Having fewer youth use drugs is important because we know that if young people can abstain from drugs before they graduate from high school, they are much less likely to use and have problems with them later."
"This survey offers promising signs that more children and young adults are steering clear of illegal drugs," Secretary Thompson said. "Monitoring the Future confirms that prevention efforts by federal agencies, states, communities and our many partners in the private and volunteer sectors are having the desired effect. We are pleased to have exceeded the President's two-year goal and look forward to a continued and needed reduction in drug use in the coming years. We must now lengthen our stride as we seek to reach the young people who are still putting their health and futures at risk."
Use of marijuana, the most commonly used illicit drug among youth, declined significantly. Current use declined 11 percent, from 16.6 percent to 14.8 percent; past year use also declined 11 percent, from 27.5 percent to 24.5 percent; and lifetime use declined 8.2 percent, from 35.3 to 32.4 percent. The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign, a comprehensive federal effort to provide drug prevention messages to America's children, was reworked in 2002 to produce harder-hitting ads that have focused on the harms of marijuana.
Of the 7.1 million Americans that need drug treatment -- 19 percent of which are teenagers -- over 60 percent need treatment for marijuana. The Media Campaign has been a powerful tool in this effort to educate Americans, particularly teens, on the serious threat marijuana poses.
In addition to measuring usage rates, Monitoring the Future also measures student attitudes about drugs. Among all three grades, the perceived risk of using marijuana increased markedly. Exposure to anti-drug advertising (of which, the Media Campaign is the major contributor) has had an effect on improving youth anti-drug attitudes and intentions, Director Walters said. In the Monitoring survey, youth attitudes among all three grades are found to be to a "great extent" or "very great extent" less favorable toward drugs, and students say the ads they have seen make them less likely to use drugs in the future. The increase in negative attitudes toward drug use corresponds with the course of the Media Campaign, launched in 1998. More than half of the increase in these outcomes among all three grades has occurred in the past two years. This is particularly striking among 10th graders, the primary target audience of the Media Campaign.
Monitoring the Future also showed significant declines in the use of other drugs. The use of LSD and ecstasy among youth has plummeted. Lifetime use of LSD fell 43 percent between 2001 and 2003 (from 6.6 percent to 3.7 percent) and past year and current use each dropped by nearly two-thirds (from 4.1 percent to 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent to 0.6 percent, respectively). Lifetime use of ecstasy dropped 32 percent, from 8.0 percent to 5.5 percent. Past year and current use were each cut in half (from 6.1 percent to 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent to 1.1 percent).
"The overall reduction in drug use by America's young people is heartening," said National Institute of Drug Abuse Director, Dr. Nora Volkow. "We are confident that our concerted effort to provide students and teachers with informative, accurate information about addiction and drug abuse will contribute to further reductions in drug use."
"Monitoring the Future has been tracking substance use and related attitudes among American teenagers for nearly 30 years," states Lloyd Johnston, the study's lead researcher. "Because its methods have been scientifically rigorous, and intentionally held constant across time, its results have proven to be quite accurate and reliable."
In addition, lifetime and current use of cigarettes declined among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders between 2001 and 2003. Lifetime alcohol use by all three grades also declined over the past two years, suggesting that teens do not trade one intoxicating substance for another.
The Monitoring the Future survey is designed to measure drug, alcohol, and cigarette use and related attitudes among adolescent students nationwide. Survey participants report their drug use behaviors across three time periods: lifetime, past year, and past month. Overall, 48,467 students from 392 public and private schools in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades participated in this year's survey. The survey is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), a component of HHS' National Institutes of Health, and conducted since its inception by the University of Michigan. Information from this survey helps the nation to identify potential drug problem areas and ensure that resources are targeted to areas of greatest need.
Monitoring the Future is one of three major HHS-sponsored surveys that provide data on substance use among youth. The Web site is http://monitoringthefuture.org.
The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), sponsored by HHS' Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, is the primary source of statistical information on illicit drug use in the U.S. population 12 years of age and older. Formerly known as the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, the survey collects data in household interviews, currently using computer-assisted self-administration for drug-related items. More information is available at http://www.drugabusestatistics.samhsa.gov.
The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), part of HHS' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, is a school survey that collects data from students in grades 9-12. The survey includes questions on a wide variety of health-related risk behaviors, not simply drug abuse. More information is available at http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dash/yrbs/index.htm.
More information on Monitoring the Future can be found at http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov.
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Here is the purpose and design of the Monitoring the Future study on teen drug use:
Purposes of Monitoring the Future The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, begun in 1975, has many purposes. Among them is to study changes in the beliefs, attitudes, and behavior of young people in the United States. In recent years, the U.S. has experienced tremendous changes in public opinion toward such diverse issues as government and politics, alcohol and other drug use, gender roles, and protection of the environment. Much of our current upheaval in attitudes is especially concentrated, and often first seen, in today's youth. This study focuses on youth because of their significant involvement in today's social changes and, most important, because youth in a very literal sense will constitute our future society.
The results of the study are useful to policymakers at all levels of government, for example, to monitor progress toward national health goals. Study results are also used to monitor trends in substance use and abuse among adolescents and young adults and are used routinely in the White House Strategy on Drug Abuse.
Design of Monitoring the Future The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, also widely known for some years as the National High School Senior Survey, is a repeated series of surveys in which the same segments of the population (8th, 10th, and 12th graders; college students; and young adults) are presented with the same set of questions over a period of years to see how answers change over time.
The project has been conducted under a series of research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, a part of the National Institutes of Health. Surveys have been carried out each year since 1975 by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. MTF respondents are 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students who participate by completing self-administered, machine-readable questionnaires in their normal classrooms, administered by University personnel.
The survey began with senior classes in 1975, and each year about 16,000 students in approximately 133 public and private high schools nationwide participate. Beginning in 1991, similar surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted annually; the 8th-grade samples contain about 18,000 students in about 150 schools, and the 10th-grade samples contain about 17,000 students in about 140 schools. In all, approximately 50,000 students in about 420 public and private secondary schools are surveyed annually.
Beginning with the class of 1976, a randomly selected sample from each senior class has been followed up biannually after high school on a continuing basis. These respondents receive a mail questionnaire at their home, which they complete and return to MTF.
The study's design permits the investigators to examine four kinds of change:
- Changes in particular years reflected across all age groups (secular trends or "period effects").
- Developmental changes that show up consistently for all panels ("age effects").
- Consistent differences among class cohorts through the life cycle ("cohort effects").
- Changes linked to different types of environments (high school, college, employment) or role transitions (leaving the parental home, marriage, parenthood, etc.).
Sampling Procedures The data from students are collected during the spring of each year. Each year's data collection takes place in approximately 420 public and private high schools and middle schools selected to provide an accurate representative cross section of students throughout the coterminous United States at each grade level.
A multi-stage random sampling procedure is used for securing the nationwide sample of students each year at each grade level.
Stage 1: - The selection of particular geographic areas.
Stage 2: - The selection (with probability proportionate to size) of one or more schools in each area.
Stage 3: - The selection of classes within each school.
Within each school, up to 350 students may be included. In schools with fewer students, the usual procedure is to include all of them in the data collection. In larger schools, a subset of students is selected either by randomly sampling entire classrooms or by some other random method that is judged to be unbaised. Sampling weights are used when the data are analyzed to correct for unequal probabilities of selection that occurred at any stage of sampling.
Administration About 10 days before the in-school administration, the students are given flyers explaining the study. Also, advance letters to parents inform them about the study and provide them a handy means for declining their child's participation if they so desire. The actual questionnaire administrations are conducted by the local Institute for Social Research representatives and their assistants, following standardized procedures detailed in a project instruction manual. The questionnaires are group administered in classrooms during a normal class period whenever possible; however, circumstances in some schools require the use of larger group administrations.
The follow-up questionnaires are mailed to respondents with a return, self-addressed, stamped envelope and a small monetary gift of $10 from the University of Michigan as a token of appreciation.