I stand by my claim that, with 110 pounds of HEU, the successful construction and detonation of an atomic bomb is trivial.
The only non-trivial part these days is getting one's mitts on the requisite quantity of Uranium-235. Everything else can be accomplished in one's garage.
If this is true, it seems that about all that stands between Al Qaeda (or other Islamics) and "the bomb" is time itself.
Sooner or later, they are going to get ahold of enough materials, and enough know-how to put one of these devices (albeit crude, but workable) together.
Once they have that, all they have to do is _get it here_.
I wouldn't be surprised that in time, the North Koreans -- who build their weapons to sell for cash -- put together a "do-it-yourself" nuke kit. It won't necessarily include the U-235; rather, it will contain all the other components, complete with an easy-to-operate detonator. Just assemble with the requisite quantity of fissionable material and you're good to go.
Or perhaps, pay a little more, and get the whole shebang. Delivered in either in kit form, or complete and ready to rumble.
Another source might be Pakistan, a country that _cannot_ be trusted with their nuclear arsenal. They are literally "one heartbeat away" from a leadership that _might_ lean towards the fundamentalists. Didn't Musharraf narrowly escape an assasination attempt just days ago? And how many of Pakistan's "nuclear team" are, in truth, Islamonazi sympathizers?
A recurring comment in this thread is that, technologically, the Islamics are still "back in the 30's". Fair enough. But look how far they've come along in recent years. They weren't a threat so long as they had mostly guns and swords. But then they learned how to steer airplanes. That's progress.
Again, if the construction of a working nuclear weapon, regardless of its "crudeness" by modern standards, "can be accomplished in one's garage" (in Prime Choice's words), there is sufficient cause for alarm. This is a feat which no longer can be considered "unattainable" and out of the reach of the Islamics.
They don't have to build a 1990's or 2000-class weapon. All they have to do is make the stride from the "thirties" to the "forties".
Cheers!
- John