If this is true, it seems that about all that stands between Al Qaeda (or other Islamics) and "the bomb" is time itself.
Sooner or later, they are going to get ahold of enough materials, and enough know-how to put one of these devices (albeit crude, but workable) together.
Once they have that, all they have to do is _get it here_.
I wouldn't be surprised that in time, the North Koreans -- who build their weapons to sell for cash -- put together a "do-it-yourself" nuke kit. It won't necessarily include the U-235; rather, it will contain all the other components, complete with an easy-to-operate detonator. Just assemble with the requisite quantity of fissionable material and you're good to go.
Or perhaps, pay a little more, and get the whole shebang. Delivered in either in kit form, or complete and ready to rumble.
Another source might be Pakistan, a country that _cannot_ be trusted with their nuclear arsenal. They are literally "one heartbeat away" from a leadership that _might_ lean towards the fundamentalists. Didn't Musharraf narrowly escape an assasination attempt just days ago? And how many of Pakistan's "nuclear team" are, in truth, Islamonazi sympathizers?
A recurring comment in this thread is that, technologically, the Islamics are still "back in the 30's". Fair enough. But look how far they've come along in recent years. They weren't a threat so long as they had mostly guns and swords. But then they learned how to steer airplanes. That's progress.
Again, if the construction of a working nuclear weapon, regardless of its "crudeness" by modern standards, "can be accomplished in one's garage" (in Prime Choice's words), there is sufficient cause for alarm. This is a feat which no longer can be considered "unattainable" and out of the reach of the Islamics.
They don't have to build a 1990's or 2000-class weapon. All they have to do is make the stride from the "thirties" to the "forties".
Cheers!
- John
In the final analysis, yup. Time...and a sufficiently-advanced rogue nation. I'd like to think that our knocking some rogue nations out of the picture is sufficiently prolonging that time frame.
Once they have that, all they have to do is _get it here_.
Or worse, construct it in a piecemeal fashion in a less-than-orderly nation with which we have porous borders. I won't name any names, but the country's initials are MEXICO. (Oops...I was supposed to think that part and not say it...)
I wouldn't be surprised that in time, the North Koreans -- who build their weapons to sell for cash -- put together a "do-it-yourself" nuke kit. It won't necessarily include the U-235; rather, it will contain all the other components, complete with an easy-to-operate detonator. Just assemble with the requisite quantity of fissionable material and you're good to go.
The requisite parts are pretty available already. One may recall that Hussein himself managed to get his hands on a few nuclear detonators back in the 1980s. He even had a press conference holding one in his hand. (And the Left still insists he was not pursuing WMD...)
Or perhaps, pay a little more, and get the whole shebang. Delivered in either in kit form, or complete and ready to rumble.
If there's one thing that nuclear weapons aren't, it's cheap. The core ingredient costs serious money; whether it's mined or manufactured. But your mention of North Korea stands to reason. There is a long history of treachery among many an Asian nation in which they would furnish weapons to the enemy of their enemy and let the two of them duke it out so that their original enemy would be weakened enough that they could make demands on them...or attack them outright.
Another source might be Pakistan, a country that _cannot_ be trusted with their nuclear arsenal.
That one has me bothered as well...but I'm reasonably sure that there are contingency plans in place that would prevent those weapons and their caretakers from remaining in Pakistan in the event of a '70s-style Islamic revolution.
And how many of Pakistan's "nuclear team" are, in truth, Islamonazi sympathizers?
If my hunch is correct, those problematic situations have been addressed roundabout the time that Pakistan made overtures to the U.S. in the events leading up to the liberation of Afghanistan.
A recurring comment in this thread is that, technologically, the Islamics are still "back in the 30's". Fair enough. But look how far they've come along in recent years. They weren't a threat so long as they had mostly guns and swords. But then they learned how to steer airplanes. That's progress.
It's more of a change in scope of the suicide bomber tactics, really. And considering the Kamikaze attacks of 1944, it wasn't original either. Yes, al Qaeda chose to use planes instead of cars. This was likely done because they saw how miserably a car bomb failed in the 1993 attack on the WTC.
Again, if the construction of a working nuclear weapon, regardless of its "crudeness" by modern standards, "can be accomplished in one's garage" (in Prime Choice's words), there is sufficient cause for alarm. This is a feat which no longer can be considered "unattainable" and out of the reach of the Islamics.
So long as the fissionable material is not readily available in sufficient quantities, there isn't much to worry about in terms of an al Qaeda A-Bomb. Now a dirty bomb...that's a different story.
They don't have to build a 1990's or 2000-class weapon. All they have to do is make the stride from the "thirties" to the "forties".
All the more reason to continue taking out rogue nations. In that, we are not only denying al Qaeda their haven, we are denying them resources critical to such an enterprise.