The Party of Clinton vs. The Party of Dean

Viewpoint Journal ^ | December 11, 2003 | David Flanagan

[dpflanagan]

Today, Ryan Lizza was quoted by Opinionjournal.com as saying that “the Democrats are splitting into two parties: the party of Clinton, and the party of Dean.” This was something Ms. Lizza wrote last month! A very impressive bit of insight into the Democratic Party’s growing troubles.

At the same time, I think we’ve all been missing, or overlooking, a central reason where this whole schizm started in the first place. The fact is, one of Clinton’s field generals is responsible for sparking this internal civil war, and his name is Terry McAuliffe.

The tactics that Dean uses have always been the Terry McAuliffe trademark approach to campaigning. The reason for this tactic is simple, Mr. McAuliffe recognized that in order to halt and/or reverse the Democratic Party’s steady slide from power in Washington, he had to ignite the party’s base.

How did he plan to ignite the base? Fear, fear, fear, and more fear! In other words, playing on the fears and anger of many hardcore liberals frustrated by a decade of failure. Its not a new tactic for the DNC and it is a very effective way of getting the party’s base to the polls. The only problem with that tactic is that it tends to turn off moderate voters who recognize these tactics for what they are... an appeal to ignorance.

So, how do you incite the hardcore liberal base of the Democratic Party without scaring off moderates? You play “Good Cop/Bad Cop” of course. So, while a Democrtic candidate is off saying reasonable things to win moderate voters, Terry McAuliffe launches the angry assault that we’ve come to know and love him for to get the hardcore voters engaged and incited.

So, while one element of the party launches their vile attacks on political opponents, the candidates can run their campaign without losing many or any moderate votes because the they can just distance themselves from the message while, at the same time, affirming the right for that group to “express its opinion.” Remember the 2000 presidential election when the Texas chapter of the NAACP ran a TV ad against the then-Governor Bush tying him to racist acts such as the one in which James Byrd Jr. was dragged to his death behind a pickup being driven by three white supremacists. The TV ad literally had a camera’s-eye view of what it must have looked like for Mr. Bird as he was dragged to death, all the time decrying Governor Bush’s unwillingness to support hate crime legislation.

When Tim Russert questionted Gore and asked if he would call for the ad to be pulled, big Al’s response was basically that he would not interfere with those groups that wished to “express” their issues during the campaign. In other words, “I won’t say directly that I approve of the ad, but, really, I do.”

Ex-Governor Gray Davis loved this kind of political Pearl Harbor tactic. Wait until just before the election and then lower the boom with all kinds of accusations against your opponent, but do it through other groups so that you are removed from any accusations of mud-slinging. But are in a position to benefit from the media focus.

And the liberal media, of course, is only too willing to play along. But I seriously digress...

So, in comes Howard Dean who has decided to borrow from Terry McAuliffe’s playbook. What has this done for Dean? He has focused on the very short-term goal of winning the nomination and seems to have decided that he’ll worry about the rest of it later. It’s likely, then, that he is hoping to do a quick right-turn after he wins to begin positioning himself as a moderate. In other words, Dean is playing a version of “Good Cop/Bad Cop” where he gets to play both roles.

Will it work? I seriously doubt it. Despite McAuliffe’s constant appeal to the base instincts of their voting base, they’ve made no gains at all that I can see in the past several years. I expect that Dean’s version of the McAuliffe manuever will prove even less effective.

Time will tell. Meanwhile, I think I’ll go to bed.

David Flanagan
Viewpointjournal.com

[Cicero]

If Dean's base will stick with him when he talks about Confederate flags, they'll stick with him when he moves to the right--no doubt with a wink to people in the know. The question is whether the average non-political joe, who probably still doesn't know who Dean is, will notice the contradictions.

[Egregious Philbin]

The question is whether the average non-political joe, who probably still doesn't know who Dean is, will notice the contradictions.

I'd say "doesn't know who Dean is" is a bit of exagerration, but I otherwise agree with your assessment. It seems that Dean's plan was a move to the middle all along, and that is probably where he feels more comfortable. I think the Republican plan to stick the McGovern tag on him will fail, for the reasons you describe. What does that suggest to the average voter? Not that much. Certainly not the damning phrase it is meant to be.

[longtermmemmory]

Could the Dean surge be part of the Good cop/Bad cop routine?

[randog]

The question is whether the average non-political joe, who probably still doesn't know who Dean is, will notice the contradictions.

If you accept the author's assertion that Dean is playing it right out of McAwful's playbook then the answer is yes, the average joe will notice the contradiction. The McAwful Stragegy is a miserable failure, resulting in dems losing seats in state and national races at a record rate.

D. Flanagan: good article and assessment of the situation. The dems are running on fumes, having exhausted any reasonable ideas several years ago. They can continue to play this switch-and-bait game for only so long; eventually they're going to have to bring something to the table or face extinction.

[dpflanagan]

You may be right. I do think, however, at least some of his supporters will feel betrayed by any dramatic change of tone. They'll see him as "selling out," or worse, as having lied to them in a way similar to the way he accused Bush of lying to the American people. At the very least, Republicans can point this out at every opportunity to show that Dean is just another politician who is willing to compromise his values for the opportunity at gaining power.

Thanks.

David Flanagan

[randog]

They'll [leftists] see him as "selling out," or worse, as having lied to them in a way similar to the way he accused Bush of lying to the American people.

You can always count on ideologues to do this, although they may be whipped into an "anyone but Bush" state by then. But then there's Nader, who's thinking about.......

[longtermmemmory]

Hmm, as the DNC collapses we could start to see little "green" pockets pop up as the gorezones fade into oblivion.

[monocle]

What most people are missing is how Clintonesqe Dean is. Dean is all over the place changing his position to fit his audience and parses words on par with Clinton on Clinton's best day. Big media is doing its part by playing down inconsistencies or ignoring them so that if Dean wins the nomination over the media's favorite or favorites big media can still promote him over Bush.

[dpflanagan]

Also a possibility, however, I think Dean has stuck his neck WAY out there by promoting things such as the complete withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, universal healthcare, a massive tax increase on everyone, and a host of other issues. Clinton at least did offer a moderate tone and did not try to appeal to just the angriest elements of the Democratic Party. In Dean's case, I believe that at the beginning of his campaign he adopted a very short-term, short-sighted strategy of harnessing the angst of the party's angry-left to pull of come-from-behind win in the nomination process.

His strategy has been very effective, but what is not guaranteed is how that will play against him once he becomes the party's official candidate. Even though Americans are concerned over the deficit, they are not real gung-ho on a massive tax increase either. As well, a significant majority of Americans, including most of the presidential candidates, believe that pulling completely out of Iraq would be a huge mistake.

So Dean has really built himself a vehicle that travels well with one very distinct group within his party, as long as the media does not shine too much light on him. But, if he is nominated, he won't be able to avoid the significant attention that will be focused on him by the media. Either he will have to shift his message a great deal or he will crash in the polls with mainstream Americans.

Thanks.

David Flanagan

[expatpat]

It will be up to Republican advertising to point out these flip-flops, assuming Dean gets the nomination.

In fact, the new, open-convention Democrap rules make it more difficult for Dean to win. First, 40% of the delegates are uncommitted 'super'delegates, so an outsider needs 5/6 of the uncommitted delegates. Second, committed delegtes are now 'earned' proportionately, not on the old winner-takes-all basis.

The convention may be a wild one, with the witch winning out in the end!