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Gore Stumbles Onstage Way Too Early
St. Petersburg Times ^ | 12/10/03 | Susan Estrich

Posted on 12/10/2003 7:02:58 PM PST by shortstop

Al Gore has done it again.

There is a reason he isn't president and it's not just the chads in Florida. The man has the worst political instincts of anyone to have gotten as far as he did in this business.

Once again, he has proven why he is a loser and not a leader.

Of course, the endorsement by the former vice president helps Howard Dean, at least in the short run. It cements his role as the front runner in the race, sending a powerful message about the race to insiders and outsiders. Try making fundraising calls today if you are Joe Lieberman or John Kerry or Dick Gephardt. Try explaining to would-be donors how it is that the race is still wide open. Say thank you to Al Gore for that.

But if Dr. Dean wins the nomination, Gore can hardly claim to have been the kingmaker. The rules were written for a candidate like Howard Dean. They were intended to ensure that an insurgent candidate would have a chance against a better financed, better organized front-runner. When the better financed, better organized candidate IS the insurgent, the rules provide him with an overwhelming advantage. According to current polls, Dean is already ahead of John Kerry in New Hampshire, and is running neck and neck with Dick Gephardt in Iowa. But the Iowa numbers may be misleading. Polling in caucus states is notoriously difficult to begin with. Dean's Internet base should help him immeasurably, and the fact that Dean is free to spend as much as he wants in Iowa, while Gephardt is limited by the expense limits that come with federal matching funds, gives Dean advantages not reflected in the current numbers.

To be sure, the fat lady has yet to sing. There is always a chance that Gore's endorsement could backfire. Iowans do not like to be told how to vote. There is a nasty streak among Democratic primary and caucus voters: Candidates can start losing when they become"inevitable" and "unbeatable"- just ask Fritz Mondale who almost lost the nomination to the unknown Gary Hart.

Still, the smart money for the nomination has been on Dean for some time, which gives the other candidates even more reason to be angry at the former vice president, both personally and institutionally.

Was Joe Lieberman not loyal enough? Remember the Al Gore who used to complain about HIS running mate Bill Clinton not being loyal to HIM? Al Gore apparently did not even have the decency to call Lieberman before endorsing his opponent.

What about Dick Gephardt, who carried the Clinton-Gore agenda for eight years in the House, and then put aside his own personal ambitions in 2000 to endorse Al Gore over his friend, Bill Bradley? And what about all of Gore's former aides, who are now working for Wesley Clark?

What harm would it have done for Gore to wait, and give voters the first chance to decide? Let his former running mate, his former allies, his former aides take their best shot, and if they fail, so be it. He had that chance. Why should they? Indeed, the danger for Gore is that if Dean should be the nominee and lose, as some on the hawkish side of the Democratic Party fear (including some old friends from the Democratic Leadership Council, which Gore helped to form-and watch Hillary Clinton while you are at it), Gore can kiss his role in the party goodbye. But that's the least of it.

Even looking only at this year, the former vice president's timing is way off. The time for leadership comes later, when at least some voters have had the opportunity to speak, when a winner has emerged and when the time has come for the losers to pull out, the party to pull together and the nominating season to be over.

The problem with the Democratic rules, and I know because I both wrote many of them and suffered under them, is that it can take too long even for a winner to amass the number of delegates necessary to cement the nomination. Because the Democrats have eliminated winner-take-all primaries, because minor candidates can stay in the race and continue to collect delegates, there becomes a point in the process when you need party leaders to declare the process ended, even if no one has literally won a majority yet. Al Gore could have played that role- now someone else will have to. A man who has stepped on those who have stood by him is in no position to lead.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2004; algore; dean; estrich; gore; howardean; stpetetimes; susanestrich
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To: Billthedrill
Ms. Estrich likes the Clintons, but she's been saying for months now that Hillary needs to remain a Senator (she thinks Hillary can be a great Senator) and that Bill needs to stay out of the spotlight and let others have their turn.
21 posted on 12/10/2003 7:40:00 PM PST by LenS
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To: Billthedrill
**Susie's pulling for Hillary so hard it's affected her judgment.** Here's another St. Pete Times article by Susan Estrich which contradicts your statement. She's no fan of the Clintons: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/912091/posts
22 posted on 12/10/2003 7:46:01 PM PST by shortstop ( Win One For the Gipper)
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To: shortstop
I think she may be confusing between Gore doing what's best for Gore, and doing what's best for her.

When she says,

there becomes a point in the process when you need party leaders to declare the process ended, even if no one has literally won a majority yet. Al Gore could have played that role

she has it completely backwards. Gore is trying to king Dean right now so Hillary doesn't have a chance to meddle later.

Her strategy critique comes off as sour grapes to me. I don't give Algore much credit, but this was a good time to get momentum and try to put the contest away. Plus Algore gets credit for being relatively early on the curve. When you have a lead and an opportunity, go big.

23 posted on 12/10/2003 7:46:41 PM PST by Monti Cello
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To: lawgirl
The rules were written for a candidate like Howard Dean. They were intended to ensure that an insurgent candidate would have a chance against a better financed, better organized front-runner.

I do have to take issue with her here, though. The rules were intended to be written for someone like Edwards or Wesley Clark, the golden child heir-apparent candidate hand-picked by the Clintons to lead the party forward and cement their stranglehold on it. These rules were tinkered with by the Clintons (pulling Terry McAwful's strings of course) for this year in order to expedite the process by severely front-loading the primary season.

It's the ultimate irony that this "streamlining" of the rules, designed to allow a Clinton-approved nominee to be quickly selected so he could immediately get to work raising enough money to beat President Bush (and to take a dive near convention time if Hillary decided she had a chance of winning the election), has actually allowed a candidate over whom the Clintons have no control (Dean) to all but lock up the nomination before the first vote has been cast in any primary! Bill, Hillary and Terry have just become the sorcerer's apprentices - they've started this thing up and now can't do anything to stop it. Talk about a major miscalculation - anyone could have seen this one coming from miles away, when you stack the deck so that the loudest and looniest in your party have even more say in the nomination process, since they were already the ones to vote first.

Says a lot about the "brilliant" Rhodes scholar ex-President and the "smartest woman in the world" that they couldn't see it.

24 posted on 12/10/2003 7:47:09 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (AIDS, abortion, euthanasia - don't liberals just kill ya?)
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To: shortstop
Gary Hart! That's who they need! Gary Hart can save the party from the disaster of Howard Dean, the mean metrosexual. If only they could see their way to forgive him for the monkey business on the Monkey Business.
25 posted on 12/10/2003 7:47:53 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: shortstop

26 posted on 12/10/2003 7:48:55 PM PST by BunnySlippers (Help Bring Colly-fornia Back ...)
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To: shortstop

27 posted on 12/10/2003 7:49:27 PM PST by Samwise (There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil.)
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To: LenS
I'm no expert on politics, but it's hard to take seriously the person who put Dukakis (SP?) in that tank.
28 posted on 12/10/2003 7:49:59 PM PST by ElTianti
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To: Verginius Rufus
Gary Hart! That's who they need! Gary Hart can save the party from the disaster of Howard Dean, the mean metrosexual.

Never happen. Gary Hart actually has some semi-sensible things to say about national security. That means of course, that unlike most of the party leadership, he doesn't advocate immediately surrendering to the French. That alone ensures he would never make it out of the primaries, even though he would get points for his past "monkey business."

29 posted on 12/10/2003 7:55:03 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (AIDS, abortion, euthanasia - don't liberals just kill ya?)
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To: shortstop
The one thing this column persuades me of is that Susan Estrich is extremely mad at Gore and is determined to nail him as hard as she can.

I don't think it was a stupid move; I think it was extremely smart. It changed the picture overnight, and gore gets all the credit. Hillary must be steaming.
30 posted on 12/10/2003 7:57:28 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: CFC__VRWC
Kind of cements the "legacy" of the Clintons being really horrible politicians. Anything positive they acheived politically was all luck (Perot running in 92, Rep's running Dole in 96. Oklahoma City happening freezing the Republican Revolution in its tracks, Clinton shutting down the government in 95 and the media blaming Gingrich, Guliani bowing out of the 2000 NY Senate Race). Anything calculating they have done politically has backfired. This just follows the script.
31 posted on 12/10/2003 8:01:01 PM PST by L`enn
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To: shortstop
To be sure, the fat lady has yet to sing.

"Mi, mi, mi, mi......"

32 posted on 12/10/2003 8:04:49 PM PST by Paul Atreides (Is it really so difficult to post the entire article?)
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To: shortstop
"The man has the worst political instincts of anyone to have gotten as far as he did in this business. "

But now Dad is no longer alive to pull the strings. Gore would not make it in a REAL business.
33 posted on 12/10/2003 8:05:17 PM PST by JSteff
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To: Cicero
I don't think it was a stupid move; I think it was extremely smart. It changed the picture overnight, and gore gets all the credit. Hillary must be steaming.

I'm sure that gigging the Clintons was 90% of Gore's intention. These people have the maturity level of 3-year-old children, so indulging their spiteful little one-up games is the main thing that drives them.

The rest of Gore's reasoning, very simply, is that Dean is the candidate who's closest to him (far, far left).

34 posted on 12/10/2003 8:08:11 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (AIDS, abortion, euthanasia - don't liberals just kill ya?)
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To: ImProudToBeAnAmerican
Ah! well a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross
About my neck was hung.

"The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner"
Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Is Dean smart enough to know what had just been placed around his neck?

35 posted on 12/10/2003 8:08:41 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: LenS
Egad - I've been out of touch. Thanks for the correction - Susie seems to be coming to her senses a bit, but she's still a major Hillary fan.

Looks like I'll have to start reading her again...but I draw the line at Helen Thomas...

36 posted on 12/10/2003 8:08:56 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: L`enn
Anything positive they acheived politically was all luck (Perot running in 92) I would prefer to see what kinds of government contracts Perot's company got post 1992 before calling that one "potluck".
37 posted on 12/10/2003 8:10:50 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: shortstop
Susan Estrich can be such a breath of fresh air from time to time!
38 posted on 12/10/2003 8:13:00 PM PST by Huber (11 Presidents, 2372 judicial nominations, zero filibusters...till now!!)
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To: L`enn
It reminds me of something Rush said before he went into rehab, to the effect that the liberals are overrated. It makes a lot of sense to me. After all, we get non-stop, 24/7 hype from the major media about liberals, about how they have all the beauty, all the brains, all the glamour. And even though we know better (on an intellectual level), we still can't help ourselves from tensing up at the thought of taking them on.

The Clintons remind me of Mike Tyson in his early days, before he turned himself into an ear-chomping freak show. His whole schtick was intimidation, pure and simple. He didn't have any technique or strategy, he was just a brutal thug who would mercilessly pound his opponent into hamburger. He tirelessly promoted this image, with the result being that his opponent was already halfway beaten before a single punch was thrown. That's what the Clintons do - build themselves up as invincible and come at you with everything they've got. Call it the politics of "shock and awe."

39 posted on 12/10/2003 8:20:46 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (AIDS, abortion, euthanasia - don't liberals just kill ya?)
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To: shortstop
Whatever gets Dean closer to the nomination is ok by me!
40 posted on 12/10/2003 8:20:54 PM PST by Graymatter (Let's issue a new $40 bill to honor our 40th president)
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