That 'Jobless Recovery' Isn't So Jobless After All

The Wall Street Journal ^ | December 9, 2003 | GEORGE MELLOAN

[presidio9]

Much has been made of the "jobless recovery" in the U.S., and most of the much has been highly political. One of the Bush administration's biggest missteps, the laying on of high steel tariffs 20 months ago, was prompted in part by loud complaints that foreign imports were eating up American jobs. The administration, having gone to the brink of a trade war with Europe, with the World Trade Organization in Europe's corner, nonetheless rescinded the tariffs last week.

[Molly Pitcher]

So what's the answer to all of this? One possible answer was provided by the Journal's Jon S. Hilsenrath in "The Outlook" column1 at the beginning of this month. The statistically "missing" workers have apparently gone off to work for themselves. He cites a BLS "households" report showing that 400,000 Americans have joined the ranks of the self-employed over the last year. And many of them seem to be doing rather well.

Hmmmm. Future conservatives, perhaps, if they're not already....

[Naspino]

Good article.

[MonroeDNA]

The doom & gloom crowd won't be persuaded.

See tagline for their real agenda.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

it's just possible that some self-employed workers insist on being paid in cash.

Even tax filings showing self-employed income just may not reflect the true number of jobs created. Everyday hundreds of thousands of jobs are created in major cities. Day by day. Hey! Jobs is jobs.

Cyber India Online Ltd. reports that "Since the H-1B cap was raised in 2000, nine out of 10 new jobs in IT have been awarded to H-1Bs. By the end of December 2001 more than 890,000 H-1B workers were employed in the US. Add to this the 312,000 from 2002 and you have a total of 1,202,000 H-1Bs replacing US citizens and green card holders by year-end 2002." They go on to say not to worry about H1B cuts, U.S. corporations will simply move the jobs to India, better for India.

So what is the truth? This..or on the other hand.. that? Politics aside. Not possible, I see. Either believe or you're a Bush hating, doom-and-gloomer.

If ever there was a need to find that one-armed economist that Harry Truman was looking for, now is the time.

At least Mr. Melloan acknowledges that large numbers of manufacturing jobs have migrated and he even admits that IT-enabled jobs have trickled offshore.

[lelio]

He cites a BLS "households" report showing that 400,000 Americans have joined the ranks of the self-employed over the last year.

Odd that the WSJ brings this up when it'll make the job gains number look better, but is silent when applying the same logic to unemployment figures -- self employeed people aren't counted.

[presidio9]

You forgot to mention the plight of the millions of slave laborers imprisoned in Chinese gulags.

[ex-snook]

"So how does one account for the weak employment numbers? One answer is that the BLS survey of employer "establishments" apparently isn't picking up the full story, even though it is the one usually relied upon by the media and Wall Street."

Well it would help, instead of moaning about BLS, if the WSJ would do some reporting and post the names of the companies that are hiring 6,000 - 600 - 60 - whatever to match earlier media reports on layoffs. [BTW for those seeing a great hiring surge, what companies are hiring in your locality?]

[lasereye]

Odd that the WSJ brings this up when it'll make the job gains number look better, but is silent when applying the same logic to unemployment figures -- self employeed people aren't counted.

Why should self employed people be counted as unemployed?

[KarlInOhio]

Is someone who is self-employed but not getting any work counted as unemployed?

[lelio]

Is someone who is self-employed but not getting any work counted as unemployed?

Had to run out the door this morning (darn work interfering with my FReepin) and that's the point I wanted to make: the labor market's shifted a lot from the large employers of the 50's up to the 90's to the small person independent contractor.

I don't think they show up on a 1st time unemployment figure, nor on a job gain, nor on a unemployment percentage figure. They probably show up on the phone survey that one of the government agencies does to get a better idea of labor trends. But when was the last time you got one of those calls?

Of course this "uncounted" figure could go either way -- your indy work is going like gangbusters and you're pulling in 5x your previous corporate job. Or you could be burning through your savings as you haven't had a gig in a year. Looking at the standard government figures you'll never know.

Does the IRS publish 1099 tax receipts? That would be interesting to see the rise in both dollar amounts and percentage of salary paid to individuals.

This is where I think Bush deserves credit: the increase in the writeoff for small businesses will greatly stimulate the economy. However I don't think you'll see it directly in employment figures as its difficult to count the small business employers using current methods developped when large companies ruled the land.

[MonroeDNA]

""if the WSJ would do some reporting and post the names of the companies that are hiring..."

My day company in South Florida hired two new people. Doesn't sound like much, but we had 17 to start. That's over 10% hiring, in the past four months.

My night job is my own business. I started it this year, and made around $23k after expenses. I hired one guy temp (who also worked at night), and paid him $12 grand. I hired another for a bit of work, and paid him by the hour. Both are now independent contractors, in addition to their day jobs.

BTW, Union folks need not apply, to either company. Bwa-ha-ha!

[ex-snook]

"For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. Top executives of SBC Communications Inc. said Tuesday that, as part of an ongoing staff reduction program, the telecom company plans to reduce its workforce by 3,000 to 4,000 in the fourth quarter."

Know any company hiring 3,000 - 4,000 in the fourth quarter?

[Sunshine55]

Actually, I do. I work for them. Verizon Wireless.