Poll: Dean opening big lead over competition in New Hampshire (30 points)

SF Gate ^ | 12/4/03 | AP

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

Howard Dean has opened a daunting lead in the Democratic presidential contest in New Hampshire, says a poll released Wednesday night.

Dean was at 42 percent, 30 points ahead of his closest rival, John Kerry, in the Zogby poll of voters who say they're likely to vote in the Jan. 27 primary. One in five, 19 percent, were undecided.

[.cnI redruM]

I'd laugh if the other eight all pulled out of NH and joined up with Hillary! to have it canceled as a waste of money. It would serve Dean right for trying the same tactic with regards to the S. Carolina primary.

[Timesink]

Go Dean go! Lead the Democratic Party into the future!

(And right off the cliff.)

[demlosers]

americanresearchgroup.com
American Research Group, Inc.
814 Elm Street Manchester, NH 03101
603/624-4081 603/627-1746-FAX
The New Hampshire Poll

December 4, 2003
Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

Ballot Preference - July 2003 through December 3, 2003
Likely Democratic
primary voters Dec Nov Nov Oct Sep Aug July

Carol Moseley Braun 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Wesley Clark 11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 1% 2%
Howard Dean 45% 38% 38% 29% 31% 28% 19%
John Edwards 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Dick Gephardt 5% 4% 3% 6% 8% 10% 10%
John Kerry 13% 17% 24% 19% 21% 21% 25%
Dennis Kucinich 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Joe Lieberman 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 6%
Al Sharpton 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Undecided 15% 21% 21% 29% 27% 32% 30%

[apollo11]

John Kerry must be in tears--his next door neighbors giving him this drubbing!

IMO, the biggest story in this campaign has been the utter implosion of the Kerry campaign. A year ago he was widely considered a shoe-in for the nomination.

[ken5050]

Look for Dean to throw lots of troops and money into Iowa..hes gonna blitz the state..if he wins both, it's over...

[Green Knight]

The current status of the Kerry Ketchup Campaign.

[zygoat]

It would appear that Dean is going to be the dem nominee at this point. However, I keep reading that Hillary could easily dispatch him if she decided to run. Dean is obviously anti-war and would no doubt pull the military out of Iraq. H.Clinton voted for the war and recently stated that we need more troops in Iraq. These two are polar opposites on the issue of Iraq, which is probably going to be THE ISSUE in the 04' elections, yet they are both supposed to be the cream of the democratic crop. This is proof that their entire party is nothing but an unrealistic,unthinking cult of personality.

[GOPJ]

From freeper thesummerwind:

Here's a little more info for you on ole' Howie and the military and his skiing; In 1971, Dean, who had been a wrestling team captain in high school, received a draft deferment for an unfused vertebra in his back. In the Aug. 15, 2002, Aspen Times, Dean said he "skied 80 days" in Aspen during the winter of 1971-72. The Times reported that Dean "loved skiing bumps," otherwise known as moguls. (Some health publications note that moguls can put particular stress on the spine.) "It was a great time to be a kid and do something relatively fun," Dean recalled. He added that he also worked that year "pouring concrete."

Time reported on Aug. 11, 2003, that Dean spent the year "skiing and bumming around. He hit the slopes, tried pot, washed dishes, poured concrete and drank impressive amounts of beer."

On June 22, 2003, Tim Russert asked Dean on Meet the Press, "Why were you able to ski on Ajax Mountain, pounding your back, and pouring concrete, and not serve in the military?" Dean told Russert, "I was given an examination. I had a previous back problem, which is evidently congenital, which prevented me from doing any sustained running, a problem that I've had since then, since that time, which requires that when I get out of the car I often have some pains up and down my leg and back and so forth. But I have been able to exercise [and have] a vigorous athletic life except for some things. One of those is long-distance running, which is how the problem came to my attention in the first place. I noticed the pain when I was in high school running track. … After the physical, I received a 1-Y deferment, [which] means you can only be called in times of national emergency. I didn't have anything to do with choosing any draft deferment. … The United States government said this is your classification. I'm not responsible for that."

Also --------- Dr. Dean got the medical deferment, but in a recent interview he said he probably could have served had he not mentioned the condition. "I guess that's probably true," he said. "I mean, I was in no hurry to get into the military."

In the 10 months after his graduation from Yale, time he might otherwise have spent in uniform, Dr. Dean lived the life of a ski bum in Aspen, Colo. His back condition did not affect his skiing the way the rigors of military service would have, he said, nor did it prevent him from taking odd jobs like pouring concrete in the warm months and washing dishes when it got cold.

Even the candidate's mother, Andree Maitland Dean, said in a recent interview about his skiing after receiving a medical deferment, "Yeah, that looks bad."

[governsleastgovernsbest]

The article's author missed the most significant news: both Kucinich and Sharpton have surged from 0% to 1%. Seems pretty clear that we're heading to a Dennis/Al ticket. Perhaps they could pre-emptively name Carol Moseley Braun as Secretary of Defense.

[Miss Marple]

How Kucinich will win:

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Vote for Dennis, and the lions will lay down with the lambs, and the dogs with the cats! Or was that the fleas?

[Miss Marple]

Don't forget the mice! (Or is this a Rat?)

[zencat]

Also saw last night that Dean was ahead of Gephardt in several Iowa polls. Right now, it doesn't appear anyone can stop him. A win in Iowa and huge victory in New Hampshire will likely give him the momentum need for the nomination.

Bush will crush him in the general election.