US chain store sales end Nov. in the red - report

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | December 2, 2003

[Starwind]

US chain store sales end Nov. in the red - report Tuesday December 2, 8:56 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Shoppers feasted on Holiday promotions but stayed mostly away from department stores, leaving U.S. chain store sales mixed, Instinet Research said in its Redbook report on Tuesday.

Retail sales ended November down 2.8 percent compared with October. The pace of sales at major retailers grew by 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Nov. 22, after rising 4.1 percent in the preceding week, the report said.

Department stores struggled through the holiday weekend, particularly with apparel, although discounters reported solid gains.

"More consumers seem to be taking advantage of deals to shop on-line, lured by free shipping, avoidance of retail sales taxes and crowds as well as easy price comparisons," the report said.

The Redbook data are compiled from a sample of same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least one year. The index is released weekly by Instinet Research, a division of Instinet, a Reuters-owned electronic brokerage.

[Starwind]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031202/economy_retail_btm_1.html

US chain store sales droop in Holiday week-report Tuesday December 2, 7:46 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The kickoff to the holiday season could not push U.S. retail sales into the black though discounting was not widespread, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 0.1 percent in the week ended Nov. 29, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS said in a joint report, compared with a 0.4 percent rise in the preceding week. Compared with theprevious year, sales for the week grew 5.2 percent.

Wet weather in the East coast and some evidence of promotional sales dampened the opening of the traditional holiday shopping season.

How well retailers performed in the month of November and the strength of sales during the first two weeks of December will be key measures of overall holiday sales, the report said.

The BTM/UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is compiled from a group of major discount, department and chain stores across the country that report their weekly results. The index measures sales growth with the year 1977 equaling 100.

[Starwind]

I normally don't post these weekly chain store sales reports, but these two point up the zero-sum game retailing is becoming.

Walmart, target, etc are taking market share and their increased holidays sales indicate less about the economy and more about cost-concious consumers shifting their spending patterns.

[MudPuppy]

My female relatives and I always go Black Friday shopping and usually have a lot of fun. This year we actually bought very little because there were no good sales. Most of the things we were looking for were shown as being on sale but were actually regular prices. The retail price was jacked up and then they put a 25% off sale sign above it.
Bah-humbug.
We all refuse to stand in line at any electronics stores to fight for the few good deals there.
We didn't see a lot of people dragging bags of goodies through the mall like we have in years past.

[sarcasm]

Are they more cost conscious because of declining real wages?

[Starwind]

Do you live/shop in large metropolitan areas, or rural areas (town pop < 100,000)?

[Starwind]

Are they more cost conscious because of declining real wages?

Hard to say. The survey data don't get that sophisticated. If you look at the 4 monthly consumer sentiment surveys, the closest indicator is job security, but it doesn't delve into disposable income and the sentiment indicators are up for the last couple of months.

I think generally, people are increasingly uneasy about their levels of debt. I don't think they've thought through how they got there.

[RiflemanSharpe]

My wife and I also are not shopping much this season. We shop year round, a little here an little there. The only thing I have left to buy is a bottle for the annual whiskey exchange with my hunting buddy. I buy him scotch and he buys me bourbon.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

Walmart, target, etc are taking market share and their increased holidays sales indicate less about the economy and more about cost-concious consumers shifting their spending patterns.

I disagree, unless you make over $100,000 there is no reason to go to a department store at all. Wall-Mart, Target, etc sell the same stuff at a lower price. The department stores either need to get better quality stuff or lower their price. If you make over $100,000 then you only need to go to Wall-Mart and Bloomingdales.

[egarvue]

Exactly - stores jacked up prices. We just started giving my four year old daughter an allowance. She had been saving for weeks and weeks to get this Barbie doll she wanted (it took a long time, as her $4 allowance is split up - $.40 for church, 1/3 for her savings account, 1/3 for medium term saving, and 1/3 for "spending money"). The barbie she wanted was $14.95 at WalMart. She'd even been putting aside her "spending money" into the medium savings jar, so she could get the doll faster. Every week she'd go by the aisle and check to see if "her" Barbie was there. By the week of Thanksgiving, she finally had enough saved, she knew that she'd need exactly $16.03.

I took her the day before Thanksgiving to get the doll, we didn't want to fight the Black Friday crowds. We got there and Wal Mart jacked up the price to $18, and had the gall to have one of their little signs above it saying "Was $19.95". What a crock - for weeks they had been selling it for $14.95. Luckily, she can't really add yet, and daddy had a couple of dollars in his pocket he slipped the cashier. She got the doll, but what a low trick - jacking up the price and then saying that it had come down from a higher price.

[LS]

The message is that retailers don't HAVE to offer sales this year because the economy is up. Sales are good for consumers, bad for business; list price is good for business.

[ampat]

Major retailer sales grew by 4.4 percent. Yet the headline reads "chain store sales end November in the red. Another negative headline. I guess the glass is half empty.

[sarcasm]

I don't think they've thought through how they got there.

The government and the media tend not to mention the decline in real wages over the years.

[LS]

You are right. Moreove, if you look at the rapidly increasing role of INTERNET sales, which are not captured by any real measures, but which by all companies' individual reports are growing by leaps and bounds, you get an even better picture. I seldom ever buy books or CDs or even videos at a store, but get them all from the net. I but all flowers from the net; some clothing items; and we have been trying to buy one of those interesting exercise tricycle-thingeys from the net---they are back-ordered for months.

[Solson]

Same store sales also do not take into account the expected 45% or so increase in internet sales

[LS]

Cause it isn't true. Check the stats. Good article posted on FR about that yesterday.

Oh, and in case you are interested, a major new book on the impact of BIRTH rates on real wages, called "Birthquake," suggests that the economy (regardless of the president or policies) has less to do with real wages than the birth cohort of young men. That birth cohort has shifted dramatically into a rising-wage cohort. Check out her stats. I know you won't like them.

[sarcasm]

[LS]

You have your stats, I have mine. Regardless, what do you do if the premises of "Birthquake" are correct? What if wage levels are 99% related to the size of the male birth cohort?

[Starwind]

You have your stats, I have mine.

Let's just cut to the chase shall we?

Post your stats and your source so we can study them. Let's see what you've got.

[sarcasm]

Regardless, what do you do if the premises of "Birthquake" are correct?

The government, under pressure from business interests, will probably increase immigration to suppress wage increases.

[MudPuppy]

I was shopping at a major mall in NJ...also got back home to Fredericksburg, VA in time to catch the tail end of weekend sales at our shopping areas here. The main stores like Sears (YUK), Bath and Body Works, Penny's, Best Buy, etc...all show the same flyers and sales.
Sales that were not sales and we didn't buy much.
My kids are getting bigger (15 & 13 yr old) and don't even know what to ask for anymore - maybe we'll start taking trips or do something else. The major shopping expeditions are on the way out.