Media blitz takes Ryan to top poll position [IL Senate]

Chicago Sun-Times ^ | November 26, 2003 | Steve Neal

[JohnnyZ]

He's broken out of the pack. In his bid for the Senate seat that is being vacated by Republican Peter G. Fitzgerald, educator and investment banker Jack Ryan has established himself as the undisputed front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Ryan is ahead of the crowded GOP field in polls sponsored by news organizations, led his primary rivals in a DuPage Republican straw poll, and is first among senatorial hopefuls in his own state telephone poll of likely Republican voters, which showed that he is the first or second choice of 42 percent of likely GOP primary voters. The poll of 500 Republican primary voters was conducted by the Alexandria, Va., firm of Public Opinion Strategies.

When former Gov. Jim Edgar decided not to run for Fitzgerald's seat, White House political strategist Karl Rove was among the first to tout Ryan for that seat.

Among the reasons that Rove and the National GOP Senatorial Committee are excited about Ryan is that he has the personal wealth to fund a credible campaign in this Democratic state. Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and former chairman of Goldman Sachs, is Ryan's former boss and regards him as a viable contender. So does commodities millionaire Blair Hull, a contender for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, who likes and respects the GOP hopeful.

Ryan's net worth is estimated at between $37.9 million and $95.9 million. He is also actively raising money and has a finance committee that includes Bob Pritzker, Best Buy Chairman Dick Schulze, and Goldman Sachs CEO Hank Paulson. By going on television with early commercials, Ryan solidified his lead over his primary rivals.

Others in the Republican senatorial field include North Shore businessman Andrew McKenna, state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin), retired Gen. John Borling, dairy owner Jim Oberweis, and Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria. McKenna and Rauschenberger have the potential to compete with Ryan but may not have enough time or money to catch him.

Ryan, 44, who quit his job at Goldman Sachs to teach at Hales Franciscan High School on the South Side, is bright, articulate, and is committed to improving public education, and says that government must ''stick up for the weak, the infirm, the aged, those who cannot speak up for themselves.''

The tall, dark-haired Ryan looks like the late John F. Kennedy Jr. and may also have California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's ability to attract votes from beyond the GOP's base.

Ryan's television commercials have already moved his numbers up. Two-thirds of Republican primary voters are now familiar with him, compared with only half before the media blitz.

The early commercials have also helped Ryan to establish himself as a political newcomer not to be confused with former Gov. George H. Ryan, who left office earlier this year under the cloud of a federal corruption probe.

The former governor is rated unfavorably by 64 percent of GOP primary voters and is rated favorably by only 16 percent of the Republican electorate.

But Jack Ryan is being judged on his own terms. The poll indicated that 34 percent of GOP primary voters like him and only 5 percent don't.

By more than three to one, Ryan is regarded by GOP primary voters as the contender with ''the best chance of beating the Democratic candidate'' next November.

The last time that Republicans won an open seat for the U.S. Senate in Illinois was in 1928. In the 75 years since then, four Republcians have ousted sitting Democratic senators. But a GOP candidate hasn't won an open senatorial seat since Big Bill Thompson was mayor of Chicago.

Ryan's ads and his direct mail have already had impact in the GOP race. ''I just admire him for giving up money to get involved in politics,'' an elderly white conservative male said when interviewed by Public Opinion Strategies.

''He looks like the All-American guy,'' added a middle-age Republican woman from Chicago. ''I like his views on education and family issues.''

A thirtysomething male from Springfield said, ''I like that he seems to have strong values. He's a rich person who's not all about money. He seems very intelligent and very personable.''

''The first thing that came to mind,'' said a young male voter from the collar counties, ''was that his name is the same name as a character in a Tom Clancy novel.''

Jack Ryan doesn't mind that comparison. But some GOP voters are worried that he might be linked to the former governor.

''As far as Jack Ryan,'' said a young male voter from Chicago, ''he seems to set himself apart from the other Republicans. That would be a positive thing.'' But this same man noted, ''Jack Ryan is not a good name in the state right now. Not his name, or anybody with the last name Ryan. George Ryan kind of ruined anybody with the last name Ryan.''

But Jack Ryan has faith in the voting public and represents a new generation of leadership.

[Kuksool]

***I know that there are a lot of Socially Conservative White Union members that can be persuaded to vote Republican with the right candidate.***

These voters hail from Downstate. In order to convince them to vote GOP, we need a candidate who grew up in region. Downstate IL voted heavily for fellow Downstate residents like 4-term GOP Governor Jim Thompson and 2-term GOP Governor Jim Edgar. This was enough to overcome the Chicago Machine.

[Kuksool]

The key to statewide victory in IL for a Republican would be to carry both the Collar Counties (Chicago suburbs) and Downstate by big margins (at least 60%).

[Pubbie]

Hopefully anyone but Dan Hynes wins the Primary, because against any other Democrat Ryan could get those Margins.

[Kuksool]

Yes, Dan Hynes would be the strongest RAT candidate. In fact, polla among RAT primary voters reveal that Hynes's strength comes from Downstate voters.

[Kuksool]

The bulk of Maria Pappas's support is in Cook County. She is a typical Chicago Machine Hack.

[Pubbie]

"Last poll should Maria Pappas out in the lead."

Are you kidding? Do you have a link to the poll?

If Pappas wins the primary then this is FANTASTIC news because Hynes is the strongest Dem Candidate.

[JohnnyZ]

What is your opinion of the Illinois electorate?

I think it's a very swinging state. The swing vote is fuzzy white folks who go both ways. I think they'll be very receptive to the Bush/Ryan federal issues: taxes, terrorism, and optimism. Republicans have been bad news for Illinois in state govt recently, but we have a good federal lineup going out there.

I'm not sold on Dan Hynes as a federal candidate. What has he ever done on his own? Blair Hull, okay, I can see that. Obama would, I think, be dismissed by too many swingers by being named Obama and as a black Chicago Democrat.

[JohnnyZ]

The poll results show that although 45 per cent of the voters are still undecided, among the contenders, Maria Pappas leads the pack with 16 per cent of the Democratic party voters -- four points ahead of the individual [Hynes] in the second position.

http://www.mariapappas.com/news_press/news_detail.php?article_id=3c9f7407

[Pubbie]

Great news, I'll post an excerpt from this article tomorrow.

[JohnnyZ]

Wait for a new poll to post. That one's a month old. Pappas hadn't even announced she was running yet.

It think it's a wicked hard primary to prognosticate. You have 3+2 major candidates: Hynes, Hull, Obama, plus Pappas and Chico. Obama, Pappas, and to some extent Chico are niche candidates (although Chico doesn't have a niche).

• Hull will run strong statewide, and I think win downstate because of $$$; can he get Chicagoans to support him over their local faves?
• Hynes will run strong statewide, but I think he'll mostly run 2nd (or 3rd or 4th).
• Obama is I think mostly limited to blacks b/c of the strong white candidates with stronger appeal; his standing is all about what % of the black vote he gets; will Joyce Washington stick around and hurt him?
• Maria Pappas should get white Cook County and 'burbs, plus some women downstate; she's running as a moderate, from what I can gather, and I would consider her a good general election candidate.
• Gery Chico. What can I say? He's got the money, but where is his base? I just don't see it. Hispanics, and . . . ?

[Clintonfatigued]

This is terriffic news. Thanks for this exciting posting.

[Clintonfatigued]

The last time a 'Rat Senator from Illinois was unseated by a Republican was in 1966, when RINO Charles Percy unseated Paul Douglas. The previous time was 1950, when Everett Dirkson unseated then-Majority Leader Scott Lucas. If I'm not mistaken, Wayland "Curly" Brooks unseated a 'Rat Senator in 1942. In other words, this is not a common event. This is a golden opportunity, regardless of the 'Rat nominee. Jack Ryan could win even if Howard Dean carries Illinois next year (which is more likely than not to happen).

[Clintonfatigued]

That's an interesting question, since both conservatives and RINO's are both flocking to him. Jack Kemp is one you could compare Ryan to. Perhaps John Kasich is another. He is certainly pro-life and skeptical of tax increases.

[Clintonfatigued]

The Illinois electorate can be divided into three groups: Chicago, The Suburbs, and Downstate. Chicago has become a 'Rat stronghold on the whole, heavily minority and liberal. However, the south-west side of Chicago has a number of white observant Catholics (I call them Mother Angelica Democrats), who can sometimes be persuaded to cross party lines. The suburbs range from middle class to wealthy. They are skeptical of tax increases and 'Rat spending programs, but moderate-to-liberal on the so-called social issues. This the heartland of the soccer Moms much talked of in 1996. It also has many Jewish voters, and is the base of the RINO wing of the Illinois G.O.P. Downstate is the reverse;, mostly conservatie socially, but economically stagnant, with a large blue-collar population upset about overseas job contracting, corporate excesses, and declining wages & health benefits. Ever since 1996, this unsettled combination added up to 'Rat victories of varying sizes. But I believe that Jack Ryan's unorthodox appeal can appeal to many of these people that other Repubicans have been losing.