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Wait for a new poll to post. That one's a month old. Pappas hadn't even announced she was running yet.

It think it's a wicked hard primary to prognosticate. You have 3+2 major candidates: Hynes, Hull, Obama, plus Pappas and Chico. Obama, Pappas, and to some extent Chico are niche candidates (although Chico doesn't have a niche).

Hull will run strong statewide, and I think win downstate because of $$$; can he get Chicagoans to support him over their local faves?
Hynes will run strong statewide, but I think he'll mostly run 2nd (or 3rd or 4th).
Obama is I think mostly limited to blacks b/c of the strong white candidates with stronger appeal; his standing is all about what % of the black vote he gets; will Joyce Washington stick around and hurt him?
Maria Pappas should get white Cook County and 'burbs, plus some women downstate; she's running as a moderate, from what I can gather, and I would consider her a good general election candidate.
Gery Chico. What can I say? He's got the money, but where is his base? I just don't see it. Hispanics, and . . . ?