Flu Virus 'Is The Greatest Bio-Terror Threat Of All'

Nature's "on-going experiments" with influenza strains "may be the greatest bio-terror threat of all", with the world alarmingly unprepared for a global epidemic, researchers warn today.

Another pandemic of the kind that killed up to 40 million people worldwide in 1918 is inevitable - and could be imminent, according to a team from St Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis.

The threat of such a pandemic influenza is much greater than that posed this winter by the Fujian strain, which is already circulating in Britain after sweeping through the southern hemisphere.

Preparation for a severe worldwide outbreak requires countries to use new vaccine technology, stockpile currently available antiviral drugs, introduce new laws to limit vaccine liability and build international co-operation, Profs Richard Webby and Robert Webster write in the journal Science.

"Flu keeps knocking on the door," says Prof Webster, referring to two different yet deadly outbreaks of avian (bird) flu that jumped to humans this year.

The outbreaks occurred in Hong Kong and the Netherlands and killed two people, including a vet.

Direct bird-to-human influenza virus transmissions were unknown before 1997, and the sudden occurrences of such transmission could mean that certain flu viruses are evolving quickly enough to pose a serious threat.

If either of the strains had acquired the ability to jump from person to person, the result could have been a pandemic.

Prof Webster says he is "very alarmed" that this was the only factor that prevented catastrophe.

The Science paper is "an unashamed call for action", said Prof John Oxford of Queen Mary's School of Medicine, London. "I support this view. The firing pistol has gone off in the race for pandemic flu preparedness."

The St Jude team warns that although there is a promising new vaccine technology (reverse genetics) available to respond rapidly to an outbreak, it has not been marshalled properly and the basis of the vaccine, a GM flu virus, has not been tested sufficiently in people.

"If an influenza pandemic started tomorrow, we would not be able to head it off with vaccines because the production facilities available to produce them are grossly inadequate," says Prof Webster.

In addition, the supply of antiviral drugs that might slow a pandemic is in "scandalously short supply", even though two families of drugs are available.

"In the face of a pandemic, the available supplies of antiviral drugs would be used up in days," Prof Webster says. "It would take up to 18 months to make more drugs from scratch. Stockpiling is the only answer."

Reference:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/898263/posts

Dutch Bird Flu Claims First Human Victim (Not SARS)
New Scientist ^ | 4-23-2003 | Debora MacKenzie

Posted on 04/22/2003 6:09 PM CDT by blam

Dutch bird flu claims first human victim

16:08 22 April 03

NewScientist.com news service

Dutch scientists are urgently checking whether the bird flu virus sweeping the country has mutated into a dangerous human pathogen, after it claimed its first human victim.

A 57-year-old Dutch veterinarian died of pneumonia in the southern city of Den Bosch on Thursday, and the "most likely cause", say investigators, is the bird flu virus.

MORE - see link

The last 3 sentences of the article refer to shortages that could be solved with proper planning and funding.

"If an influenza pandemic started tomorrow, we would not be able to head it off with vaccines because the production facilities available to produce them are grossly inadequate," says Prof Webster.

In addition, the supply of antiviral drugs that might slow a pandemic is in "scandalously short supply", even though two families of drugs are available.

"In the face of a pandemic, the available supplies of antiviral drugs would be used up in days," Prof Webster says. "It would take up to 18 months to make more drugs from scratch. Stockpiling is the only answer."

NO KIDDING! 36,000 people per year die from Flu-related complications in the U.S. alone...The only "story" here is that it is unusual to see young healthy kids die so quickly...Not good...

Avg. mortality rate from Flu complications since 1973 is in the 20K range, which means that 600,000 people have died in the last 30 years due to FLU. Guess what country nearly every single mutation comes from -- PRC China. China is causing the deaths of MILLIONS of people worldwide each year, because they do not do enough to suppress outbreaks in their own country or sufficiently screen and quarantine traffic out of their country. Their early silence on SARS was NOT just an unfortunate "delay" -- it was practice, and possibly even POLICY.

The world's FLU PLAGUE emerged exactly when trade and immigration out of China started to accelerate in the 19th century. Our quarantine measures with regard to immigration before the 1920s were designed to slow and prevent the spread of diseases like the Flu and many others. I'm old enough to remember that before the mid-1960s, many towns used to quanrantine people with the FLU, and schools sent kids home after the first cough. Today? The result has been a steady rise in the annual mortality rates from FLU from circa 5K per year in the early 1960s to 36K per year! That is, even factoring in the population increase into a per capita rate, more people are dying each year because our willingness to limit spreads through COMMON SENSE measures here in the US has retreated for a variety of reasons (including expansion of trade and air transport with the PRC/HK that has overwhelmed our ability to properly manage it all, PC, and too much faith in miracle drugs).

Enough about China. The most basic fact that none of our politicians have wanted to face is that the FLU is not home-grown -- it is almost always IMPORTED, and thus TOTALLY UNNECESSARY! Unlike AIDS or many other plagues, the symptoms make carriers easy to spot and quarantine -- and thus realitively easy to minimize outbreaks, like SARS, IF THE POLITICAL WILL EXISTS.

Check for yourself...excerpt from the CDC>>>

Using new and improved statistical models, CDC scientists estimate that an average of 36,000 people (up from 20,000 in previous estimates) die from influenza-related complications each year in the United States. In addition, about 11,000 people die per year from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a virus that causes upper and lower respiratory tract infections primarily in young children and older adults. The study demonstrates that most deaths caused by RSV occur in the elderly.

www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030107.htm

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