Mansoor Ijaz: Bin Laden in Iran

Fox

[Dog]

Mansoor Ijaz just reported Bin Laden is in Iran as of July.

[diamondjoe]

"Just heard that; also a new description - different colored beard, cut shorter, and he's gained a lot of weight."

He's still 6'6" though, and there aren't a lot of men with that kind of height around the Middle-East.

[cgk]

Nice analysis.

[Capt. Tom]

Ijaz's credibility is just shy of debka.com's, imho. Every time I see him on FNC he's spewing about the latest overblown AQ story du-jour. Never seems to pan out. Remember the AQ has suitcase nukes claims, AQ has chem/bio weapon claims, UBL will be caught in two weeks claim, etc., etc.???

Have you ever seen Mansoor Ijaz and Dick Morris in the same room? -Tom.

[cgk]

Obviously, we can't seal the borders of any Middle-eastern nations we occupy, only attempt to contain the influx of foreign fighters.

And I have little faith in the latter considering how we handle our own border here at home.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

Zawahiri and bin Laden's son are suspected as residing in Iran... this has been well reported. Why wouldn't bin Laden go there? The terrorists are streaming in to Iraq from Iran. Bin Laden is an equal opportunity terrorist, and even influences events in the Balkans.

I don't care what the Guardian wrote last August... this is November. Things change, obviously.

And, if bin Laden is NOT in Iran, that is fine, too. Because if America wants to play ball with Iran, when it comes to bin Laden, that is good enough.

Besides, Musharaff cannot control the wild frontier where bin Laden was suspected as hiding. He cannot control the forces within his nation that support the Taliban, to this day. Musharaff is only cooperating with America, because he has no choice. And he will do the bear minimum to satisfy us, while placating his people with rhetoric at the same time.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

'HILLARY & TERRORISM's plan to regain the White House'

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1022571/posts?page=28

---

PLAN II. CLINTONS PLANNED TO USE TERRORISM TO REAGAIN WHITE HOUSE

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1023024/posts

[BushMeister]

Sorry, forgot to post Iran physical map link.

Here it is:

Iran

[ALOHA RONNIE]

Thanks for Listening, TF...

[Political Junkie Too]

Since then both the Sudanese Ambassador to the U.S. representing the Sudan President during these 3 Offers as well as the CLINTONS' own White House Political Advisor, DICK MORRIS, have confirmed what MONSSOR IJAZ told us 2 years ago...

Yup. It's just all the other Clinton administration officials who immediately began smearing Ijaz when he first made those claims. That was enough to prove it true for me.

-PJ

[Southack]

"There's been a $25 million reward for bin Laden out for over two years, and he's still running al Qaeda, and presumably directing at least some of these terrorist attacks. I'd hardly say he lost."

That's like claiming that the Confederacy didn't lose the Civil War because a CSA Army general managed to escape to Brazil and build his own town.

[Imperialist]

"And Pakistan is Al Queda's.....?"

training grounds?

[BushMeister]

Well, the problems securing the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada obviously stem from political restraints.

[RandallFlagg]

I must be really stupid, so will someone PLEASE tell me why we can't find and kill this guy, right now!!???

Easy question and no, you're not stupid. JMHO, but we should not kill him yet. Following him covertly, watching where he goes and what he does and says in the months after 9-11 is a lot more valuable strategicallywise, than just killing him. We need to know all of our enemies.

Wouldn't it be revealing if OBL was seen chatting it up and passing money with a French leader, or the guy who runs moveon.org?

[M Kehoe]

Actually, if this is true, it's good news. If bin Laden is still sucking O2 (which I doubt), and he's in Iran, what great timing that the 4th ID is on Iran's western border.

Number 2 on W.'s Evil Empire list. The time of the mullahs is nigh.

5.56mm

[Indie]

My point being one month Mr Ijaz says we are not going after bin laden for political reasons and the next month he says the devil is in Iran. This guy knows a lot. And if he is telling the truth and his source is certain, then why are we not going after him...yesterday??

It would be logical to assume if Mr Ijaz IS correct, then by default we are not going after bin laden for political reasons.

I'm not arguing your point at all, believe me. I only wonder why he is still alive and why Iran has not been vaporized. :)

[BushMeister]

Pakistan is al-Qaeda's nuclear laboratory and weapons provider.

Unfortunately, with the high number of Islamic fanatics still in high-level positions throughout the Pakistani military and political infrastructure, I fear this will come into high relief.

[cgk]

Here's Mansoor's take on Iran:

Mansoor Responds:

FOX Foreign Affairs Analyst Mansoor Ijaz disagrees with Dr. Walsh's assessment that "no country is likely to provide WMD to Iraqi-based terrorists." Read his response:

Dr. Walsh raises an interesting and historically correct point about why states have chosen, until now, not to transfer WMD technology to terrorist groups. However, that historical perspective does not take into account the change in how terrorist movements have morphed from hire-for-ransom organizations to ideologically driven enterprises aimed at radically transforming the way we live our lives.

For example, Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant organization, was just another terrorist group trying to wreak havoc on Israel as a political-military arm of the Iranian government prior to eptember 11, 2001. But today, with its al-Qaeda overlay and a global network of loosely affiliated but ideologically similar cells, it has morphed into a much more dangerous arm of the Iranian government.

"When states realize they are effectively being contained ...  they have no choice but to turn to terrorist organizations to do their dirty work for them."

And that is precisely the point about America's post-September 11th anti-terror efforts. When states realize they are effectively being contained by the international community, led by the US, in purveying terror as a part of their foreign policy, they have no choice but to turn to terrorist organizations to do their dirty work for them. It is naive to think Iran is any different.

Iran's clerics control the most sensitive organs of government(military, intelligence, police forces). This gives them unprecedented power to continue inappropriate policies, such as the harboring of al-Qaeda's senior leadership structure today as a Get-Out-of-Jail-Free card against any potential US-led attack on its nuclear facilities. Iran's clerics have also cut political deals with neighboring countries, like Saudi Arabia, using terrorism as a negotiating tool (or intimidation threat, depending on your point of view). They continue to pursue uranium enrichment while further dividing Europe and the United States politically with unilateral and as yet unverifiable offers to the European Union to stop producing nuclear bomb fuels. Yet Iran makes no commitment to dismantle nuclear weapons design and development programs.

Hypocrisy is no basis for constructive engagement with any country, and certainly not with countries that openly and clandestinely support terrorism as instruments of state policy.

Mansoor Ijaz is a FOX News Channel foreign affairs and terrorism analyst and founder and chairman of The Crescent Partnerships, a series of New York-based private equity partnerships focused exclusively on the development of national security technologies.

As a private American citizen, Ijaz negotiated Sudan’s counterterrorism offer to the Clinton administration in April 1997 and proposed the framework for a cease-fire of hostilities in Kashmir between Indian security forces and Muslim separatists in August 2000.

[mikegi]

Remember the AQ has suitcase nukes claims, AQ has chem/bio weapon claims, UBL will be caught in two weeks claim, etc., etc.??? No. I don't remember Ijaz making any of those claims. Anybody else?

1) Ijaz was making all sorts of dire predictions on FoxNews after 9/11 and one of them was about AQ and suitcase nukes. Anyway, here's a more recent article about AQ and nukes: Mansoor Ijaz, Weekly Standard 02/19/2003 - ... a picture emerges of an unparalleled potential threat to the global economy from the paralysis that could be caused by a crude plutonium bomb exploding in the belly of an al Qaeda ship with bin Laden onboard.

2. After the nuke claims didn't pan out, Ijaz began talking about AQ and chem/bio weapons. Don't have a link but it was a hot topic late last year.

3. After KSM was captured in March, Ijaz said several times on FNC that UBL would be captured "soon". When pressed for a time frame, he said "two weeks". I'm sure there are contemporaneous posts here on FR documenting this.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

I thought I read the Ijaz and Woolsey belong in the same Think Tank.

I don't know how gossip works in Washington. But I truly doubt anything that bubbles to the surface on the news that deals with a new development isn't already whispered about in Washington.

Now, it could be that Ijaz broke the story, because of his contact. But, I doubt anything that he could say is going to make the militants of al Qaeda throw up their hands in defeat.

In the last Rihyadh bombing, al Qaeda was tormented by the news that an "imminent threat" was coming... their thunder was stolen. They still acted, but at a SOFT target, not the one they initially planned. So maybe just ruining their plans can sometimes be seen as reward enough.

[Southack]

"Actually, if this is true, it's good news. If bin Laden is still sucking O2 (which I doubt), and he's in Iran, what great timing that the 4th ID is on Iran's western border."

Even better, our Army is also on Iran's Eastern front. We're in Afghanistan too, remember.

The Iranians can't depend upon the NATO-wanna-be xbeckistan's and Russia on their Northern border, they face a major American presence in Iraq on their Western border, and have American soldiers encamped on their Eastern border in Afghanistan. To the South Iran faces the American Navy.

Talk about pucker factor!