A Stagflation Forecast? (CNNFN Continues To Look For Bad News)

Clymer News Network, Finance Division ^ | 11/20/03 | Justin Lahart

[Recovering_Democrat]

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stagflation, that dangerous mix of high inflation and low growth that socked the U.S. economy back in the 1970s isn't on anybody's radar screen these days. Except, apparently, the bond market's.

[Recovering_Democrat]

This is the 2nd in an ongoing effort to document on Free Republic the bias on cnnfn.com's web site.

Another top of the web site story from CNNFN, where the editors are determined to find some bad economic news every day.

This is the 2nd in an ongoing effort to document on Free Republic the bias on cnnfn.com's web site.

[RiflemanSharpe]

They do not have to look far for bad news. Although there are promising stats out there, I have yet to see the increase in the good paying jobs that can support a middle class. What we have seen the most of are McJobs. We need to have a strong middle class to be the consumers that power the economy.

[ClearCase_guy]

High inflation? What's it at right now? 1.2% or something?
Slow Growth? What was it last quarter? 7.2%?

I worry CNN's enormous dominance of television will drive all the other stations out of business.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Really. And yet, the average pay for Americans continues to rise, interest rates are low, inflation is in check, unemployment is falling, and the stock market is making a nice recovery.

Welcome to Free Republic, by the way. Hope you're enjoying your first couple months here...member since 9/28/03, I see.

[RiflemanSharpe]

Really. And yet, the average pay for Americans continues to rise, interest rates are low, inflation is in check, unemployment is falling, and the stock market is making a nice recovery.
Welcome to Free Republic, by the way. Hope you're enjoying your first couple months here...member since 9/28/03, I see.


I can only report on what I see, I know of a good half dozen friends and family that are unemployed or under employed. And again there has been some good news of late. But after the last three hard years I want to see good jobs before I uncork the champaign. Right now I see the economy as a mixed bag.

[ClearCase_guy]

Right now I see the economy as a mixed bag.

Some people will only be happy when everyone's income is above average.

The economy is ALWAYS a mixed bag. The numbers are good. The fact that you have friends who are under-employed is anecdotal and does not indicate that the sky is falling.

[RiflemanSharpe]

Right now I see the economy as a mixed bag.
Some people will only be happy when everyone's income is above average.

The economy is ALWAYS a mixed bag. The numbers are good. The fact that you have friends who are under-employed is anecdotal and does not indicate that the sky is falling.


I did not say the sky is falling, but i have not seen it rise much either. I have yet to see a full fledged recovery. And I am running my person finances accordingly. I am n ot spending money I do not have to, I am paying off debts and trying to build a cash reserve. If good solid jobs do not return I do not think we can have a substained recovery.

[mywholebodyisaweapon]

He has a valid point. The Bush tax cuts were not Reagan tax cuts. Consumers were the target - not businesses.

Since the stimulus has been primarily demand-side instead of supply-side, the real danger of inflation in the next few years makes me squeamish about Hillary's chances in 2008.

[Recovering_Democrat]

His point is merely partially valid. The dividends tax cut was a business tax cut. And the depreciation/capital expenses tax cuts were aimed at businesses. The result: business spending/expansion is UP--in capital spending and employment numbers.

[Recovering_Democrat]

MORE BAD NEWS: U.S. October Index of Leading Economic Indicators Rises 0.4%, more than forecast.

[1Old Pro]

If they want a negative pessimist to predict the end of the world they should just hire Robert Rubin.

[jpl]

Not only are we in a period where is no serious threat of high inflation, but there is actually a bigger chance of deflation occurring than inflation.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I can only report on what I see...

If you only report on what you see, you're going to have a very very limited world view.

[ken5050]

Who watches cnnfn?

[RipSawyer]

"Really. And yet, the average pay for Americans continues to rise"

I don't want to pick a fight but I fail to see how this can be true. It certainly is not true in the area where I live, and at best it can only be true nationwide if you exclude all the people who are laid off and look at incomes of the ones who are still working. Let me add that my own income for this year may be slightly higher by the end of the year than last year's income but that is only because I have taken a low wage job where I work ridiculously long hours, as much as 90 in one week back in May.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I don't want to pick a fight but I fail to see how this can be true. It certainly is not true in the area where I live...

There are indeed areas that have not "caught up". Watch the monthly and/or quarterly wage/income reports on any business show, though, and you'll see what I mean.

A search of the Department of Labor web site shows the most recent statistics for 2001. Here's the quote:

The average annual pay of all workers covered by state and federal unemployment insurance (UI) programs rose by 2.5 percent to $36,214 in 2001, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This compares with a 5.9 percent rise in 2000. The annual pay of private industry workers, comprising 84.3 percent of the nation's employment, grew by 2.3 percent in 2001, while pay for government workers rose by 3.6 percent. In 2000, the increase in pay for private sector workers was 6.3 percent and for government workers, 4.1 percent.

URL for this site: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/annpay.nr0.htm

Sorry I couldn't find stats that are more recent. Truly, the growing unemployment in the post-9/11 world added to some economic stalling--though the economy STILL grew. We're seeing a national reversal of these economic numbers, though: the most recent jobless claims for the week fell to the lowest level since BEFORE the Clinton recession began!