The Wilder Effect - Why Bobby Jindal lost in Louisiana, despite being ahead in the polls.

Weekly Standard ^ | 11/17/03 | FredBarnes

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet.

Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced.

Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do.

Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis.

Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats.

Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted.

Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.

[Maximum Leader]

Really too bad about Jindal, by all accounts he is as honest as he is smart. Though in the end, this may be the best thing for him.

If John Breaux retires from the Senate next year, he'd be the front runner. He'd be the smartest senator since Pat Moynihan.

[Paleoguy]

Let this be a lesson to all you "We've just gotta make an effort to get the black vote and show them we mean no harm..." BSers. Screw the black vote, they'll never get off the plantation so it's time we started to spend our money on getting those 9 million evangelical Christians who didn't vote in 2000 to the polls and getting out the hispanic vote. At least we can win them." Jindal should have been courting the white vote instead of wasting his time."

I have to agree. Remember when Kemp spent most of his VP campaign trolling around in black neighborhoods telling them how much he cared? He and Dole didn't get any more of the black vote than Reagan did. It was a waste of time. Fact is, the Republicans should more or less write them off and hope for a low turnout.

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[Poincare]

It's not how blacks vote, its how their votes are counted. Jindal polled better among blacks than the electoral results. Wilder effect?? I think not. Republicans will not get much black vote until there are Republican poll watchers in black precincts. Same in Detroit, Philly, Chicago.......

[Looking for Diogenes]

Why Bobby Jindal lost in Louisiana, despite being ahead in the polls.

Maybe it was simply because polls are always wrong?

[Huck]

From what I know about Owens, I like him too. I am not sure he can make it on the national/international stage, but I have a favorable impression of him. Does he strike you as someone who can move the country to do bold things?

[motzman]

Seems to me that Jindal's age may have been more of a factor than race....

[Bogey78O]

Thanks a lot.

Next time we'll run an old uninspiring man of average intelligence.

Here's the tip. Whenever Congressman Jefferson and a Landrieu push a candidate vote for the other person. It's one of life's truisms.

[Bogey78O]

Slightly worse?

[section9]

You are all aware of my opinion: I believe Condi is much more than Presidential material. But that shouldn't be what is open to discussion here. The best post on black voting patterns in some time was given above, and it explains something about why Condi would do better than Bush did in 2000, but only up to about 15 to 18 percent.

Kimoajax pointed out, and quite rightly, that people like Rice, Powell, or J.C. Watts got where they got by going outside of the "system" within the Community. Thus, it is easy for the black leadership to convince black voters not to trust them, as if someone like Rice is an "outsider". Running Rice nationally would be much easier than running Jindal in La., simply because her opponent would be Hillary and HRC has negative numbers that Condi Rice will never see. Condi would win men and split the women, as well. But let's not get sidetracked. The fact is, Jindal was the better man, but too many backcountry white folks didn't feel comfortable with a "dark skinned" man. Thankfully, Jindal has a future.

Southack needs to understand that just by proving that vouchers work, for instance, or that Affirmative Action is a non-event, does not mean that black Democrats will get struck by lightning on the Road to Damascus. Remember Kimos emphasis on group loyalty and the role of the Civil Rights leadership in enforcing group loyalty. Reason, and the examples of powerful black individuals who have, Horatio Alger-like, broken from the group arouse suspicion and envy, as opposed to admiration and pride.

They will never demand of white Democrats that they prove that their policies haven't done more harm than good!

To expect that black Democrats will break out of the group gestalt mind within the next thirty years based on a sudden realization that Republican policies are more effective for the Community is a fantasy, one that only white Republicans could entertain.

Ignore "outreach" programs into the black community. Return at once to an insistence on individual liberty and the rule of law. Take what you can, but expect nothing more. After all, we would dearly love to win the black vote, but it is our souls we must hold dear, and they must be for sale at no price. To be blunt, there are other voting blocs in the electorate.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[dogbyte12]

There is a Wilder affect. Actually the effect is with racist democrats who tell people they are voting for the colored guy but don't. It affected several races. Wilder got hit with it, a famous case was Tom Bradley's race for governor here in California. I feel this is the same. Jindal was leading in the polls, only because some people refused to admit that they weren't going to vote for somebody based on his skin color.

It's not a national tragedy, epidemic, it just means that 90% of people are honest about who they are voting for in a race like this, and the 10% who feel that they should tell the posters they are voting for the non-white candidate, are full of crap.

Jindal probably needed a good 6% lead in the polls on election day to actually win.

[GladesGuru]

Worst of all was using the Florida constitution , and it's amendment mechanism, as a way to regulate the size of pig pens. While one expects the animal rights whacko to be crazy, and for the majority of the newspapers in the state to support whatever is the socialist cause je jour, when the citizens vote for such degradation of their constitution - one must fear for the future.

If all that the Florida socialists had fast talked the voters into was the high speed rail, and the classroom limitation amendments, I would be far less worried about the future of my home state.

The old "No mans life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in secession" didn't include "Or while the Sheeple are in the voting booth."

Jefferson was right. An informed electorate is the only safe repository of power. And in the Sheeples Republic of FloriDUH the electorate is woefully underinformed, misinformed, or well propagandized.

[jordan8]

The source is a recent article by Fred Barnes:

A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

[rdb3]

This is why it has and will for a long time to come continue to be a waste of effort for Republicans to court the Black vote.

There are far too many Pubs who hold your view(s), and this is why I will remain an Independent instead of becoming a Republican.

You just write us off. Gee, thanx.

[rdb3]

Let this be a lesson to all you "We've just gotta make an effort to get the black vote and show them we mean no harm..." BSers. Screw the black vote...

Gee, thanx.

[JNB]

Dick Armey is a example of a so called Conservative who puts economic principles in front of social principles. He dogmatic free marketer and dogmatic free trader first, social conservatism was secondary to him, and on issues such as immigration, one could almost regaurd him as a liberal. All I can say is thankfully Dick Armey is no longer in the house.