Posted on 11/18/2003 8:40:56 AM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet. Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced. Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do. Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis. Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats. Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted. Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.
I have to agree. Remember when Kemp spent most of his VP campaign trolling around in black neighborhoods telling them how much he cared? He and Dole didn't get any more of the black vote than Reagan did. It was a waste of time. Fact is, the Republicans should more or less write them off and hope for a low turnout.
Maybe it was simply because polls are always wrong?
Kimoajax pointed out, and quite rightly, that people like Rice, Powell, or J.C. Watts got where they got by going outside of the "system" within the Community. Thus, it is easy for the black leadership to convince black voters not to trust them, as if someone like Rice is an "outsider". Running Rice nationally would be much easier than running Jindal in La., simply because her opponent would be Hillary and HRC has negative numbers that Condi Rice will never see. Condi would win men and split the women, as well. But let's not get sidetracked. The fact is, Jindal was the better man, but too many backcountry white folks didn't feel comfortable with a "dark skinned" man. Thankfully, Jindal has a future.
Southack needs to understand that just by proving that vouchers work, for instance, or that Affirmative Action is a non-event, does not mean that black Democrats will get struck by lightning on the Road to Damascus. Remember Kimos emphasis on group loyalty and the role of the Civil Rights leadership in enforcing group loyalty. Reason, and the examples of powerful black individuals who have, Horatio Alger-like, broken from the group arouse suspicion and envy, as opposed to admiration and pride.
They will never demand of white Democrats that they prove that their policies haven't done more harm than good!
To expect that black Democrats will break out of the group gestalt mind within the next thirty years based on a sudden realization that Republican policies are more effective for the Community is a fantasy, one that only white Republicans could entertain.
Ignore "outreach" programs into the black community. Return at once to an insistence on individual liberty and the rule of law. Take what you can, but expect nothing more. After all, we would dearly love to win the black vote, but it is our souls we must hold dear, and they must be for sale at no price. To be blunt, there are other voting blocs in the electorate.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
It's not a national tragedy, epidemic, it just means that 90% of people are honest about who they are voting for in a race like this, and the 10% who feel that they should tell the posters they are voting for the non-white candidate, are full of crap.
Jindal probably needed a good 6% lead in the polls on election day to actually win.
A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.
There are far too many Pubs who hold your view(s), and this is why I will remain an Independent instead of becoming a Republican.
You just write us off. Gee, thanx.
Gee, thanx.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.