Huge Sunspots Set to Return, Forecast Unknown

Space.com ^ | November 13th, 2003 | Robert Roy Britt

[Sabertooth]

	Huge Sunspots Set to Return, Forecast Unknown By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 02:00 pm ET 13 November 2003

At least one of a trio of huge sunspots that contributed to the record string of 10 major flares in late October and early November is about to rotate back into Earth's view. And it remains active.

The spot has weakened some, but today it set off a good-sized flare and kicked up more space weather. Two other large sunspots trail the first are due back next week. All three have continued to generate space weather while on the far side of the Sun, astronomers said.

Images

This coronal mass ejection leapt from Sunspot 484, on the back side of the Sun, early on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2003.

Helioseismic holography allows this view of two other large sunspots currently on the far side of the Sun. If they don't fizzle, sunspots 486 and 488 will rotate into view next week.

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Sunspot 484 will emerge into full view any day now. At 4:30 a.m. ET today, it was the site of a moderate (M-class) flare and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME), all detected because the radiation and matter leapt above the Sun and became plainly visible.

The CME is a bubble of charged particles that expands outward into space. When aimed at Earth, a CME is one of the main components of space weather that fuels colorful sky aurora and can threaten satellites and power grids.

This storm is not aimed directly at Earth and is unlikely to have much effect.

But the eruption shows Sunspot 484 still has some kick. No one can say if it is capable of the sort of major (X-class) flares it created on its last trip across the face of the Sun. While effects on the ground were minimal, two Japanese satellites were disabled and the operation of others was affected.

Seeing through the Sun

Using a technique called helioseismic holography, astronomers look through the Sun. They cannot see solar flares on the back side, but they can detect the sunspots and note any CMEs that expand beyond the solar disk.

"We have observed that active region 484 appeared somewhat weaker as it approached the solar limb again," said Paal Brekke, deputy project scientist for the Sun-watching Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). "Still it caused a few far-side halo CMEs while at the far side of the Sun."

Holographic maps from SOHO also reveal giant sunspots 486 and 488, which caused some of the other major flares recently. Space weather has continued to emanate from these regions, Brekke said, and if they don't fade, these sunspots will slide back onto the visible disk next week.

Scientists and many in the public were surprised at the size of the sunspots that appeared in late October, and more so at the intensity and number of major solar flares -- ten were ranked as X-class, including an X28 that is the most powerful ever recorded.

Is the Sun okay?

The activity was all the more curious because the Sun is a couple of years past the peak in its 11-year cycle of activity. Sunspots are, in general, fewer in number now than during the peak.

But historical data show that a slightly higher number of major flares occur after the solar cycle's peak than during it. While the spate of 10 major flares in less than two weeks was unusual, it does not many the Sun is undergoing any fundamental change, astronomers say.

"Nothing's wrong," said David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. "These latest sunspots were whoppers," Hathaway said, "but sunspot counts averaged over many weeks are still declining as predicted. We're still on course for a solar minimum in 2006."

During solar minimum, very few sunspots are expected, and flares would be infrequent.

Hathaway points out that accurate observations of solar flares, measured primarily by their X-ray output, is a recent effort, made possible only in the satellite era.

"It's hard to be sure what's normal and what's not," he said. "Astronomers have been observing X-rays from the Sun for only 35 years -- or three solar cycles. We can't draw good statistical conclusions from so few data."

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[Sabertooth]

[Sabertooth]

FYI

[MeekOneGOP]

[farmfriend]

Thanks for the ping.

[RightWhale]

At the moment the sun looks fairly quiet. Is it waiting until it has the earth in its sights again? Saving up the good stuff for us?

2

[snopercod]

The astronauts/cosmonauts on the ISS aren't quite "done" yet.

And of course, they are stranded up there until sometime next year because the Shuttle is grounded and the Russians refuse to spend the money for a Soyuz mission. Some "partners".

Does NASA have shuttle standing buy should there be a need? Of course not. The entire workforce is spending 8 hours per day reading the financial section of the newspaper.

Oh yeah, the Senate is cutting the ISS budget by $200 million. It's for the chilluns'...

[RightWhale]

This would be a problem on the moon and on Mars if they don't remember to DIG IN.

[Cold Heat]

"Nothing's wrong," said David Hathaway

OK! I am relieved now that we do not have to fix the sun.

[per loin]

Here's a noon yesterday shot of 488 and 486 lurking on the far side.

[Cold Heat]

aren't quite "done" yet

Must be on the low heat setting.

Seriously, I would not want to be up there.

[LibWhacker]

For a near-side view, check out The Sun Now, which
is updated daily, I think.

[per loin]

and here is 484 just peeking into view on the sun's east limb:

[per loin]

This is a graph of what these sunspots had to say on their last earthside pass:

[snopercod]

It just pi$$es me off that NASA has so little regard for Michael Foale that they are letting him get dosed up there with absolutely no concern about him. It's the Linda Ham "We can't do anything anyway" mentality which is apparently still endemic at NASA.

P.S. Love your tagline!

[_Jim]

Great!

Band condions in the higher frequency HF bands have been poor since we're not on the receiving end of the sun's recent antics ...

[Barnacle]

Thank you Mr. Tooth.

Pinging my list to make sure no one is left out.

( If you want on or off my Aurora Ping List, Please send a Freepmail.)

[Sender]

OMG! I just figured it out! Al qaeda is controlling the sun and this is the big hit! That Daleel feller said we'd all be amazed how they did it.

[Barnacle]

What a strange affect it is having on the Earth’s shoreline areas. It must be exciting the quantum energy differentials of the sea/landmass interface. Does Art Bell know about this?

?;^T

[Consort]

I'm getting with the Sun. If we can do without it at night, then we don't need it at all.

[tubebender]

Thanks for the ping. Have you got a site where one can see the relation of that M scale...