The 2004 Election is Over, Now

Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 11 November 2003 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Bigg Red]

Agree to all that you said about Hitlery.

But you said,
"I want her out of the Senate and out of public life."

I'll go you one better:
I want her out of my country.

[Bigg Red]

The only disagreement we would have is who hates her more -- you or me?

&&

Sorry, you both lose. No one hate Hitlery more than I do.

[Xthe17th]

bookmark bump!

[Maria S]

Congressman Billybob,

With all due respect, Sir...I still have your words ringing in my ears before the 2000 election: "Bush is going to win without ANY problem; Gore has no chance", etc. I can't remember if I heard you on Rush, Phil Paleologeous, or ? All I know is you were very, very sure Bush would take almost every state.

I think we'd all better focus on making sure 1. Everyone we know gets registered and votes; 2. Everyone we know understands completely how vital it is that Bush win again AND the Congress gain more Republicans.

[Congressman Billybob]

I've never been on Rush (not that I wouldn't welcome the opportunity). I did say, on with Phil, that I expected Bush to win. I did NOT say that I expected Bush to take "almost every state." When the margin between the candidates is less than 5%, as it clearly was in that election, both candidates will take a substantial number of states.

The margin in THIS election will have a majority of 10% for Bush (give or take 2%). That means it will be a landslide in the order of Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan, etc. That also translates to a landslide of even higher order in the Electoral College.

That said, it is not a suggestion that anyone who wants Bush to win should sit on his or her sofa and not contribute, not get out and work, not help turn out favorable voters. Even when one team is powerful and the other is weak, it is still necessary to play the game out to the final gun.

I agree with you and all other posters who have said that this is no time for complacency.

John / Billybob

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Bookmark.

[steve8714]

Absolutely.

[Rhetorical pi2]

Billybob,

You can certainly talk the talk. But will your prognostications hold up? Let's hope.

However, I am one of those "glass half empty" kind of people. (I would prolly play "Eore", the donkey in Winnie the Pooh.) :o)

I am printing and saving your analysis to pull out of the folder again in September and October to cheer me up when things may be looking bleak for our man. You make it look too easy. These things are rarely a cakewalk.

My guess for Dean's running mate would be a good ol' North Carolina shyster named Edwards. Would that help in the South? Mebbe, mebbe not. It didn't help Gore to be from Tennessee.

How about Sen. Graham? Would that help take Florida this time? Probably would help. Having Jeb and Bob slugging it out and pushing every political button in the state would be fun to watch...if our side was winning.


The Clintons don't love Dean. He said early on that he would remove Terry McAwful from the Democrat National Committee. That doesn't sit well with Bill and Hillary and their desires to control it all.

It wouldn't make any sense for Hillary to be a running mate - except to excite the Democrats. But stranger things have happened.

I think Dean would get great press. He is the John McCain, Jimmy Carter (and early Ross Perot, )kind of guy the press love.

I think Dean will win more states than Congressman Bob predicts. But, my movie - or storybook - kind of chapter in this drama would be for Cheney to say he was not feeling up to anothr campaign, and Dubya asking Condi Rice to be running mate.

The press should love it. It wouldn't bring over the "old" Black caucus. But it would take enough Black votes away from the Democrats to significantly redraw the political map in the US for quite awhile. In this scenario, Dubya and Condi run the table.

...and then there is the war - a double edge sword.

At this point the butterflies are already fluttering in my stomach. It's time to re-read Billybob's treatise and get ready to run thru walls for Dubya. :o)

[Rhetorical pi2]

Billybob,

You can certainly talk the talk. But will your prognostications hold up? Let's hope.

However, I am one of those "glass half empty" kind of people. (I would prolly play "Eore", the donkey in Winnie the Pooh.) :o)

I am printing and saving your analysis to pull out of the folder again in September and October to cheer me up when things may be looking bleak for our man. You make it look too easy. These things are rarely a cakewalk.

My guess for Dean's running mate would be a good ol' North Carolina shyster named Edwards. Would that help in the South? Mebbe, mebbe not. It didn't help Gore to be from Tennessee.

How about Sen. Graham? Would that help take Florida this time? Probably would help. Having Jeb and Bob slugging it out and pushing every political button in the state would be fun to watch...if our side was winning.


The Clintons don't love Dean. He said early on that he would remove Terry McAwful from the Democrat National Committee. That doesn't sit well with Bill and Hillary and their desires to control it all.

It wouldn't make any sense for Hillary to be a running mate - except to excite the Democrats. But stranger things have happened.

I think Dean would get great press. He is the John McCain, Jimmy Carter (and early Ross Perot, )kind of guy the press love.

I think Dean will win more states than Congressman Bob predicts. But, my movie - or storybook - kind of chapter in this drama would be for Cheney to say he was not feeling up to anothr campaign, and Dubya asking Condi Rice to be running mate.

The press should love it. It wouldn't bring over the "old" Black caucus. But it would take enough Black votes away from the Democrats to significantly redraw the political map in the US for quite awhile. In this scenario, Dubya and Condi run the table.

...and then there is the war - a double edge sword.

At this point the butterflies are already fluttering in my stomach. It's time to re-read Billybob's treatise and get ready to run thru walls for Dubya. :o)

[Congressman Billybob]

To use an old poker table term, Bush is "rat-holing" his money right now. That means taking it off the table and not spending or risking it. Until the Democrats finish beating up on each other (in part) and have chosen a candidate (whoever that is), Bush/Rove/the Republicans will spend essentially nothing. Or at most, they will spend only the interest on the money they've rat-holed.

During that time, because the Democrats are on the attack and the Republicans are not replying, Bush's approval ratings will undoubtedly drop a few more points. That is not dangerous. It is to be expected.

When it's time to fight, and Dean (most likely) is the Democrat nominee, Bush will come out roaring and spending. And at that point, he will have much more money than Dean. That's because Dean will not raise as much money as Bush (probably), and Dean will spend part of his hoard defeating the other Democrats (certainly).

Bottom line: other than the "convention bounce" that both the Democrat and Bush will get when their respective conventions are held, from the time the Democrats have settled on a candidate through the general election, Bush's approval ratings will continuously rise until he wins the general election going away.

The determining facts of every election are three: incumbency, relative money spent in the election, and issues. Bush is on the upside of all three of those. End of story.

John / Billybob

[biffalobull]

I think this whole analysis is on the money, except that Hillary is far more dangerous than you allow. She controls the press, she controls huge sums of money, she controls the Democrat Party, and she has FBI files on everybody who ever graduated from high school.

Exactly; Don't ever sell this woman short. You can call her all the names you want, but go figure how she, after the 8 year mess she made of the country, took the Senate election in New York without ever being a citizen.

I believe most posters on this board, are so blinded with hatred for hildebeast, they cannot admit what a power she has.

Remember, the people of this country voted them in twice after the most insane acts you could imagine.

Hildy and slick are master politicians, and will stop at nothing to gain their ends. Best keep your head up dealing with people like this.

[MHT]

Why should any Democrat nominee take federal money and its consequent restrictions when their fund-raising is going to blow Bush out of the water? We thought Bush was going to be rich, rich, rich when his campaign goal was announced at $200-million--well, that's nothing compared to the $450-million promised to the Democrats by organized labor ($185-million is already in hand) and the pledge they got yesterday from Crazy George. That doesn't even include contributions from the scads of people using the internet and the usual bevy of rich liberals from the coasts.

Our biggest asset is that Dean is an absolute nut case, and the Democrat primary structure has gotten the nomination out of the smoke-filled rooms and into the hands of the most liberal kooks in the country. Hillary can come in at the last minute and confiscate Dean's committed delegates; but, the consequences upon the party and its image of being for the "little guy", "it's about about the process", etc., would be toast. Individual Democratic voters around the country would have made sincere commitments to Dean via their money and primary votes and a last minute foreclosure of their participation would look like sour grapes (and I don't think the Dean Team would let the Clinton's get away with it without a fight---and Dean's one fiesty little guy!).

[biffalobull]

Another terror attack could change the political landscape dramatically.

People, please don't forget who we are dealing with here. Not only the slickmeisters, but the Muslim world.

The country is paying millions of dollars evey week now in security measures.This country is impossible to secure. Far too vast.

One major attack next summer and GW is toast.IMHO.

[Ditter]

>>>>>>>oh so tragic accident>>>>>
Ah ha! The plot thickens! bump for later

[mo]

You're right about the money...but the source will be from overseas...Dubya is refusing to allow the US to be used as a doormat..something that upsets the European eliteto no end...stands in the way of their global government plans. Dubya will need everything we can give him next fall.

[markfiveFF]

Which lessons of history?

In 1945, we won WWII. In 1946, The Republicans took Congress. In 1948, they were poised for victory but let the big city machines take it away.

In 1990, we won the Cold War. In 1992, x42 won the Presidency. In 1994, the National Socialst medical bill was on the verge of passing. But Newt Gingrich, minority leader of the House, and Rush Limbaugh spoke up. And the Republicans have run the House ever since.

The lessons of history teach us that the voters of these United States are fickle. The swing voters can be swayed. The thing to remember that the election is in November 2004.

The recent Senate misadventure says that we need anywhere from three to 11 more Senate seats to get judges confirmed. Three more may give Bush the nuclear option. 11 more should get cloture passed. We may get the three, but not the 11. Why 11 and not 9? Because who knows how McCain, Snowe, Collins and Chafee will vote.

If you go to www.scottpolls.com you see D leading R by 46% to 37%. It is good that it is not November 2004. I think that the Democrats are peaking too soon. My odds are:

Bush wins: 80-85%
Dean wins: 0-5%
Gephardt wins: 5-10%
Kerry wins: 0-5%
Hitlery wins: 0-0%

For the Senate, the Republicans should pick up 3-8 seats. In the House, it could go anywhere. The Ds could win the House back or the Republicans could pick up 15 seats.

What the Democrats have miscalulated badly is that Bush will pick up many more Christian votes than he did in 2000. Conservative Christian churches are growing, while leftist churches are in decline. And many who stayed home in 2000 will be reenergized in 2004.

In the South, Bush has locked up the vote, unless Gephardt wins. Even there, Gephardt takes Missouri and Arkansas, but what else? In the Northeast, Bush is gaining among Catholics. In California, Bush is gaining among Hispanics, who I see as a future core Republican voting bloc, if we treat Hispanics with respect. This could move New Mexico and California into the Republican zone.

I also am listening to the swing voters. The media is hurting us here, badly. They believe the crap the media is saying about Iraq. That is why it is important to make it clear that Iraq is a success. In addition, a drop in oil prices into the summer of 2004 would help the economy and Bush popularity.

Just remember that American political history is filled with zigs and zags.

[rightofrush]

Won't happen. Barring a presidential scandal that makes Watergate look like, well, a third-rate burglary, The Dems have no chance whatsoever to even prevent a further loss of seats in 2004, much less regain control of either chamber.

Are you forgeting about the invasion of the illegals and motor voter?

[2nd Amendment]

The Democratic Party that we know today is made of immoral traitorous syncophants that cater only to the queerest elements of society. I wish Zell Miller would form a new opposition party that really cared about the concerns of working people and middle class.

[rightofrush]

I wish Zell Miller would form a new opposition party that really cared about the concerns of working people and middle class.

Sign me up if you include the Constitution and the first 10 amendments. Since 1865, they've been ass-wipe.

[gatorbait]

November 22, 1963 taught me a lesson you never learned


What lesson might that be?