Economy's Surge Poses Challenge for Presidential Hopefuls

The New York Times ^ | November 11, 2002 | David Leonhardt

[Bryan]

For more than two years now, the Democrats seeking the presidency have planned on running a 2004 campaign built around the weak economy and patterned after Bill Clinton's 1992 defeat of President Bush's father.

But with the economy having surged this past quarter they are suddenly confronting the possibility of a far less encouraging historical comparison: that the election year economy could be more like the one Ronald Reagan ran on in 1984, when the country was coming out of a long slump.

The rapid change in the outlook — underscored by figures released on Thursday showing the fastest quarterly economic growth since 1984 — is already forcing the Democratic presidential candidates to calibrate their attack on Mr. Bush's economic record in ways they did not have to just a week ago. It has also left them in danger of looking as though they were clinging to economic gloom.

(Excerpt -- Please click on link for full article.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/02/politics/campaigns/02ECON.html

[Bryan]

I liked this one a lot too, from 1972:

[Iowegian]

The NY Times changed the headline, after I posted it.

[justshutupandtakeit]

So we should be buying stock in the company making Zoloff? Lol.

[Bryan]

That would be Pfizer. They closed at $31.61 today. LOL

[NMC EXP]

Hello Bryan

Good news and bad news I'd say. US productivity soared 8% in the 3rd qtr. According to economic theory non farm wages should vary with productivity. Once upon a time that was true, but not any more.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

CPI:
+0.3% in Sep 2003

Unemployment Rate:
6.1% in Sep 2003

Payroll Employment:
+57,000(p) in Sep 2003

Average Hourly Earnings:
-$0.01(p) in Sep 2003

PPI:
+0.3%(p) in Sep 2003

ECI:
+1.0% in 3rd Qtr of 2003

Productivity:
+8.1% in 3rd Qtr of 2003

U.S. Import Price Index:
-0.5% in Sep 2003

http://stats.bls.gov/

Note that average earnings declined in September despite an 8% increase in productivity for the quarter.

This is not a new situation. It has been this way since the 70's when the US became a free trade economy.

This "new economy" is quite a situation. Productivity goes up, non supervisory wages decline, unemployment is high, immigration is uncontrolled, H1B and L1 visas are the all the rage and the FTAA is coming soon to a hemisphere near you.

Only in America.

Regards

J.R.

[Bryan]

There are some new statistics that were just released this morning. The 57,000 jobs gained in September was a preliminary figure. It has now been revised to 125,000. A preliminary figure of 126,000 jobs gained was released for October and the unemployment rate has dropped again, to 6.0%.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm