Posted on 10/31/2003 8:04:17 AM PST by Pikamax
Time is GMT + 8 hours Posted: 31 October 2003 2024 hrs
Unemployment rises in France, casting clouds over economic outlook
PARIS : France's jobless rate edged higher in September, data released by the Labour Ministry showed, confirming an upward trend that bodes ill for the French economy and government hopes to cut the number of people out of work.
The ministry reported France's unemployment rate rose from 9.6 percent of the workforce in August to 9.7 percent in September, when 25,300 people joined the jobless roles.
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The number of people looking for work in France now comes to 2,435,700, the ministry said in its latest report, confirming an increase in joblessness since the middle of 2001.
"The data confirm the upward unemployment trend is not about to be reversed," said BNP Paribas analyst Jean-Marc Lucas.
"Naturaly, this trend will continue to weigh on confidence and household spending," he added.
The European Commission predicted on Wednesday in its autumn economic report that France would just barely escape a recession this year with growth of only 0.1 percent, slightly less than an estimate of 0.4 percent for the eurozone as a whole.
The data, which showed the highest unemployment rate since April 2000, contrasted sharply with recent economic figures coming out of the United States, where government statistics released Thursday showed a fall in weekly jobless registrations and 7.2 percent surge in economic activity in the third quarter, the fastest growth rate in 19 years.
But analyst Marc Touati at Natexis Banques Populaires warned that French policymakers should not count too much on the growing recovery in the United States to reinvigorate the French economy because French firms enjoying a boom in orders from the US could try to avoid France's rigid labor laws and high labor costs by producing abroad.
"French companies today are international and if they see an increase in orders, they can respond to this new demand by producing abroad, which would have a completely neutral effect for French GDP (gross doemstic product)," said Touati, who is forecasting the French unemployment rate will hit 10 percent in the first half of 2004.
The unemployment figures also bode ill for the government of Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, which has banked on an improvement in employment towards the end of the year that would then pick up sharply next year.
Labor Minister Francois Fillon said at the beginning of the month he expected a "significant drop" in unemployment next year although the European Commission forecast Wednesday that the French unemployment rate would rise from 9.4 percent this year to 9.7 percent next year -- the second-highest estimate in the eurozone after Spain.
The Labor Ministry figures released Wednesday showed the unemployment rate for category one workers, those who are actively seeking full-time work of undetermined duration, rose 6.9 percent from September 2002.
Young workers have been hardest hit, with unemployment among those 25 years old and under climbing 5.1 percent in September from August and 8.2 percent from September last year.
In the only bright spot in the ministry report, long-term unemployment generally declined. The number of workers seeking jobs for at least a year fell 0.8 percent in September from August but was up eight percent on the year.
Those looking for work for more than three years declined 2.3 percent from August and 9.7 percent on the year.
- AFP
It seems to me that this also explains our "jobless recovery". Ain't Globalism grand?
Interested employers may phone M/F 10:00 - 4:00 only!
All recoveries are jobless, because jobs are a lagging indicator. Please don't buy into the latest 'Rat spin on things.
I've been through these up and downs since the 50s. No, I'm not buying into their crap, but recognize this recovery is different because of this suicidal Global Economy b/s.
An article was posted elsewhere today where Bangladesh software houses are ecstatic over our "recovery" as it will mean more jobs sent their way.
The only jobs that will be created here is more swimming pool-cleaners, fingernail technicians and Wal-Mart greeters.
When are you moving to Bangladesh?
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