Feingold, Thompson in dead heat

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel ^ | 10/28/03 | STEVE SCHULTZE

[William McKinley]

A hypothetical matchup between the state's most enduringly popular Republican politician, former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, and Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold would result in a dead heat, according to new poll results released Tuesday.

While there is no sign that Thompson might run for Feingold's seat, the head-to-head measure using the former governor and Bush cabinet secretary was done as a way to test Feingold's strength against a well-known Republican, said Jim Miller, executive director of the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

Feingold, first elected to the Senate in 1992 and re-elected in '98, is up for re-election next year.

The poll found 45% favoring Thompson and 44% preferring Feingold in the imaginary pairing. That amounts to a tie, considering the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll also found support among state residents for President Bush declining to a pre-Sept. 11, 2001, level of 50%, while a solid majority of 54% said the country is on the wrong track. Those findings mirrored what several recent national polls have found, as concerns over the economy and the aftermath of the war with Iraq have grown.

The institute, a conservative-leaning think tank based in Mequon, sponsored the poll, which was conducted for the group Oct. 6 to 12 by Harris Interactive, an international marketing and polling firm. The poll surveyed 1,000 Wisconsin residents by telephone.

'Very formidable'

The hypothetical Feingold tie with Thompson coupled with Feingold's 49% favorable and 24% unfavorable rating among poll respondents suggests Feingold "will be a very formidable guy," said Jim Miller. "He'll be difficult to beat."

That view jibed with the analysis of Don Kettl, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor. He called Feingold's 2-to-1 ratio of those with favorable vs. unfavorable views of him "a very impressive showing."

"The Feingold numbers may surprise or perhaps even dishearten some of the Republicans," Kettl said.

Ed Miller, a UW-Stevens Point political scientist, said the poll finding of Feingold holding even against Thompson shows the two-term Democrat may be stronger than some believed.

"Any other Republican is going to have a more difficult time against Feingold," Ed Miller said.

Three lesser-known Republicans have announced their intention to run against Feingold: car dealer Russ Darrow, construction company executive Tim Michels and state Sen. Bob Welch of Redgranite.

The poll did not measure support for any of those three because at this point they are not widely enough known to provide a meaningful test of support for a Republican opponent to Feingold, Jim Miller said.

Partisan sources read different meanings into the Feingold findings.

Weakness seen

"It shows weakness," said state Republican Party Chairman Rick Graber. Even though Thompson remains a popular figure, he has been out of the state for more than 21/2 years and Feingold still lags slightly behind him in the poll, Graber said.

Voters will recoil from Feingold once they hear about his record criticizing Bush on the war on terrorism, voting against the Patriot Act and opposing banning the procedure dubbed "partial-birth" abortion by anti-abortion advocates, Graber said.

Welch said that scoring less than a 50% favorable rating also spells trouble for Feingold.

"Any time your 'favorable' is under 50 percent, you are like the walking dead," Welch said. Bush's 50%, however, is not cause for concern because presidential rating numbers bounce more than those for other candidates, Welch said.

Feingold campaign manager George Aldrich said the poll results "confirm what we hear today all over the state: that the people of Wisconsin are happy with the job Sen. Feingold is doing."

Thompson, now secretary of health and human services, has said repeatedly he doesn't intend to run against Feingold, although he has indicated he plans to leave Bush's cabinet after next year.

Asked Monday if there were any circumstances under which Thompson might run against Feingold, Thompson spokesman Tony Jewell said only that "he has said he is not going to run." The poll shows Wisconsinites "remember and appreciate the leadership (Thompson) provided as governor. They yearn for such leadership again," Jewell said.

Kettl said the poll showing that Thompson would only tie Feingold was not likely to prod Thompson into taking the plunge. He said many Republicans had been quietly hoping that Thompson would do just that, and a goal of the survey may have been to lure the ex-governor into the race.

Jim Miller, of the research institute, said the inclusion of Thompson in the poll wasn't aimed at encouraging him to run. He added, however: "Would you bet your entire life savings that he wouldn't run?"

Several members of the governing board of the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute have close ties to Thompson, including Jim Klauser, who served many years as Thompson's top campaign strategist and government adviser, and Michael Grebe, who has held key Republican Party posts.

Other poll findings:

Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle had a 45% favorable vs. 32% unfavorable rating - a bit stronger than just before he won his office about a year ago. Doyle, however, would lose a hypothetical matchup against Thompson, 48% to 41%. Doyle has three more years in his term. Considering the difficult state budget battle and ongoing clashes with a Republican-controlled Legislature, Doyle's numbers are better than expected, said Ed Miller, of UW-Stevens Point.

Wisconsin remains a highly competitive state politically, nearly evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

[Coop]

The poll also found support among state residents for President Bush declining to a pre-Sept. 11, 2001, level of 50%,

Adults only surveyed. Bump it up a couple of points.

[concerned about politics]

Adults only surveyed. Bump it up a couple of points.

I always bump it up for Republicans. Many live active, productive lives and are less likely to be around to answer a pollsters phone call.
Democrats, on the other hand, are sitting by the phone hoping for someone to offer a one night stand, or watching for the mailman to bring their government check.

[Catspaw]

IF Tommy runs against Russ.

[pogo101]

I can't agree that I respect Feingold overall. He has been one of the principal filibuster leaders against Bush's judicial nominees. Surely that isn't principled (considering that he opposed the GOP's delays of some Clinton nominees in the 1990s), even if he is so in other arenas.

[genghis]

The key to '04 is the senate candidates. The more great guys like tt we have, the more money the dems have to raise and the better chance we have of picking up more seats.
Go Tommy!!

[jmaroneps37]

Watch for reports in this race, expressed in ratspeak. When I saw the headline I knew that Tommy was up. If a rat is ahead by a 1/4 of a point its 'a solid lead'! I just hope Tommy runs.

[ninenot]

On the Shores of Mich-i-gan-ee,
(In the fair Wis-con-sin-land,)
The Tommy Drums are rolling, rolling, rolling,
Calling “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy,”
Calling “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy
Come, Defeat the Feingold-man”

In the District of Columbia,
(In the Eastern province-land),
The Tommy Drums do echo,
Calling “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy,”
Calling “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy,
Go, Defeat the Feingold-man.”

But other drums are sounding
Near Mich-i-gan-ee shores,
The other drums are sounding,
Saying “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy”
Saying “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy
Can’t defeat the Feingold-man”

The Other Drums are calling,
They are Calling, calling, calling,
Saying “Spending, spending, spending
With your Taxing, Taxing, Taxing,
Is not Good for Wisconsin-land”
They are calling, calling, calling
For Relief from Tommy-man.

The State Payroll is padded, padded, padded,
And the Stadium is built;
And the Gas Tax always rises, rises, rises,
In Mich-i-gan-ee Land.
The Other Drums are calling, calling, calling,
Saying “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy,
Stay in Eastern-Province Land”

On the shores of Mich-i-gan-ee,
(In the Fair Wisconsin-land)
The Drums, they are a-warring,
Warring, Warring, Warring
The Drums, they are a-warring
About the Feingold-man.