Posted on 10/26/2003 4:27:23 AM PST by randita
Posted on Sun, Oct. 26, 2003
Poll shows slim lead for Street
By Thomas Fitzgerald Inquirer Staff Writer
Mayor Street holds a narrow lead over GOP challenger Sam Katz as the candidates make their final appeals to an electorate sharply divided along racial lines, according to The Inquirer Poll.
Street was the choice of 46 percent of city voters surveyed; 41 percent favored Katz in the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Twelve percent said they were undecided, and 1 percent planned to vote for John Staggs of the Socialist Workers Party.
The poll results are starkly different, however, when the views of black and white Philadelphians are weighed separately.
Among black voters polled, 82 percent said they planned to vote for Street versus just 5 percent for Katz. White voters favored Katz over Street, 71 percent to 17 percent.
Most voters said that the discovery of an FBI bug in Street's City Hall office and a wide-ranging federal investigation into city contracts would not influence their choice Nov. 4.
Even so, a strong majority - 62 percent - said that it was possible or likely that the probe was a "dirty trick" by Republicans in Washington designed to take control of Philadelphia's government.
"It's still a very volatile election," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "There are so many factors floating out there that could kick this one way or another."
The Inquirer Poll was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 registered Philadelphia voters who said they were likely to vote.
Katz said he was "extremely enthusiastic" about the most recent poll results, because previous polls had him trailing the mayor by margins of 10 and 7 percentage points.
"This race is going to be right back where it was before the FBI probe," Katz said. "... It's going to be a horse race, a tight race, and an Election Day race, and we're going to win it."
Yesterday, Street repeated what he has said about most poll results, favorable and unfavorable to him: "The only poll that matters is the one that's taken on Election Day."
Street's campaign spokesman, Dan Fee, said, "We're certainly gratified for the support that the mayor has received both in the polls and in the neighborhoods he's been campaigning in... . He is the only candidate with a record of accomplishment on the issues that matter."
Those polled thought Street was more trustworthy than Katz (45 percent to 37 percent) and had more knowledge and experience to run city government (62 percent to 29 percent).
The survey also found many of the same racial fault lines that have been exposed whenever white and black candidates compete against one another for office here. Black and white respondents viewed almost every question in the poll through different lenses.
For instance, 82 percent of African American voters said they thought Philadelphia was on the right track, compared with 23 percent of white voters. Seventy percent of black voters said the city had improved over the last four years, while just 18 percent of white voters agreed. The poll's margin of error for smaller subgroups, such as black and white voters, is higher.
Black voters also were much more likely than white voters to rate Street's performance in office as "excellent" or "good."
And there is evidence that African American voters are rallying around Street, the second black mayor in city history, now that he appears under siege. Thirty-nine percent of black voters said that news of the federal probe made them "more likely" to vote to reelect the mayor.
This is just the effect Street supporters have hoped for as they have pressed a public case that the bugging was racially motivated. With that in mind, Street's surrogates have repeatedly reminded listeners of respected black leaders who were subjects of federal investigations.
"It's all about turnout," Coker said. "... The question: Is the enthusiasm high enough that [African Americans] will turn out and vote, or will people be discouraged by the investigation and the controversy?"
Even in the case of some non-black voters polled, the federal investigation has proved a plus for Street.
Gladys Delgado-Garced, 44, a Latino voter from Olney, said she had had no intention of voting for Street, but that the federal investigation changed her mind.
"I was skeptical, but then when I saw the probe into his affairs and his office, I felt like that was dirty politics," said Delgado-Garced, who owns A-1 Meticulous Cleaning Service. "So even if he wasn't the man for the job, I'm going to vote for him because I hate dirty politics."
She also said that she found the commercial that the Katz campaign ran with an African American woman who referred to Katz as a "brother" offensive.
"They're insulting us as minorities," she said.
Street himself was not immune to criticism when it came to the issue of race.
Sarah Baltzell, 71, of Rittenhouse Square in Center City, who is white, said she was put off by a comment Street made last year at an NAACP event. Noting the many people of color he had placed in high administrative positions, Street said "the brothers and sisters are running this city."
"I think he's done a great deal to polarize this city," Baltzell said.
"I think whatever color you are, you are obligated not to do that kind of thing," she said.
Asked to weigh which issues were of most importance to them, voters polled gave top rankings to education, economic development and crime. Eliminating corruption and favoritism from city government - a campaign theme of Katz - was of chief concern to only 6 percent of those surveyed.
Voters also were cool to Katz's top economic proposal, a stimulus plan to immediately slash the wage tax and borrow money to pay city expenses.
Forty-nine percent opposed such a cut, and 31 percent said they would support it, with the rest undecided. It was one of the few questions in the poll that elicited broad agreement between black and white voters.
The poll found little effect from a lawsuit pending against Katz that accuses him of deceiving three former business partners out of $2.1 million. Sixty-eight percent of respondents said that case would have no effect on their vote.
Overall, the poll found that 43 percent viewed Katz favorably, while 28 percent had a negative view. For Street, the favorable/unfavorable ratio was 44 percent to 37 percent.
Interviews with some voters in the poll showed that party and union ties exerted powerful influences.
Randy McNeely, 37, a white Democrat from the Northeast, said he planned to follow the lead of his union, Local 98 of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, which has endorsed Street.
"He seems to keep my local employed," said McNeely, who is married and has two children. "You've got to go where your bread is buttered."
However, if Katz were a Democrat, McNeely said he would probably vote for him. "He seems like a decent enough guy," McNeely said.
Les Condon, an undecided white voter from Bustleton, said that the federal investigation loomed large in his thinking.
"I'm just up in the air," said Condon, 62, a retired supermarket manager who voted for Street four years ago. "All my life I've been a Democratic person, but something is not kosher with the investigation. I think they caught somebody doing something, because they [the FBI] don't go around doing this for the hell of it."
Still, he said that Katz was a "question mark" for him. "I'll probably make up my mind as I go into the booth," Condon said.
Contact staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com. Inquirer staff writers Angela Couloumbis, Oliver Prichard and Anthony S. Twyman contributed to this article.
© 2003 Philadelphia Inquirer and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.philly.com
(snip)
However, if Katz were a Democrat, McNeely said he would probably vote for him. "He seems like a decent enough guy," McNeely said.
It will come down to the Union MEMBERS .. will they buck their leaders or not??
From what I've been hearing on the local talk radio is that if Street is re-election .. there will be a number of families that plan to move out of the city because they are sick and tired of the Democrats
And the ones that moved out .. they said if Katz is elected .. they would consider moving back
I moved out of Philly 5 years ago to Montgomery County. The city is a sewer of corruption from the mayor right down to the garbage men. If you have a big pile out in front your house in excess of your usual load, you better be out there when they come by to throw a $50 bill next to the pile or you will wait till doomsday for them to pick it up. I could go on and on about the beaurocratic horrors of the city. I left just before Street was elected. It was bad then in spite of the hype the Rendell spun on it. It's worse now. And the libs are fleeing the wealthy neighborhoods of Chestnut Hill and Mount Airy as crime is on the rise as the blight encroaches. If Street gets elected again I might have to move again...to Texas!!!
And with Rendell as Gov now .. I just might move to Texas too
And the orchestra--one of the best in the world.
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