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Bears Run Amok in Market Prophet's Vision
TheStreet.com ^ | 10/23/2003 | Jon D. Markman

Posted on 10/25/2003 1:06:46 PM PDT by sourcery

Rumors of the 2003 market rally's imminent death have been greatly exaggerated in recent months. But according to one analyst with an enviable track record, the end days are finally here, and it's time to prepare for a sickening plunge into December and beyond.

The doomsayer is Michael Belkin, one of the few investment analysts who has emerged from the recent boom, bust and reboom with his reputation not just intact, but aglow.

Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near Seattle, Belkin writes a $36,000-per-year weekly report on equities, bonds and commodities for leading managers of mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds worldwide. The report rises above the straitjacket of specialization to treat the global landscape holistically as an interlocking economic, political and social system.

Two weeks ago, Belkin abandoned his yearlong (and initially very lonely) bullish posture and put on the fur. He expects the broad market indices to sink significantly through the end of the year, led by cyclical industrial stocks, and does not see much of a recovery on the horizon for 2004.

Belkin's Street Cred

Why take him seriously? He's been right about the last few major swings.



TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: alwaysbuymoregold; buygoldfromme; goldbuggery; goldgoldgold; mineshaft; takethegoldmineshaft

1 posted on 10/25/2003 1:06:46 PM PDT by sourcery
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To: Tauzero; Starwind; AntiGuv; arete; David; Soren; Fractal Trader; Libertarianize the GOP; ...
FYI
2 posted on 10/25/2003 1:07:36 PM PDT by sourcery (Moderator bites can be very nasty!)
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To: sourcery
Yep. I should've known when I shifted into full crash-mode at the end of August that I seem to invariably precede the market by right about two months.. Of course, as soon as I modified my outlook with that in mind, I'd probably begin to overshoot by two months - which would be much worse for my personal bottom line.... ;^)
3 posted on 10/25/2003 1:40:30 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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To: sourcery
Belkin believes that the Bush administration essentially "rented the 2003 recovery from Wal-Mart" by cutting taxes and mailing out rebate checks, and now faces an "involuntary deleveraging process" that will feed into weaker corporate results, softer economic statistics, worsening unemployment and, eventually, a sharp decline in real estate values.

I couldn't figure out why the authorities decided to kick off the "recovery" campaign so early. Unless they have something else up their sleeve, it could prove to be a major miscalcution in '04.

Richard W.

4 posted on 10/25/2003 1:42:26 PM PDT by arete (Greenspan is a ruling class elitist and closet socialist who is destroying the economy)
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To: sourcery
Belkin believes that the Bush administration essentially "rented the 2003 recovery from Wal-Mart" by cutting taxes and mailing out rebate checks, and now faces an "involuntary deleveraging process" that will feed into weaker corporate results, softer economic statistics, worsening unemployment and, eventually, a sharp decline in real estate values.

I couldn't figure out why the authorities decided to kick off the "recovery" campaign so early. Unless they have something else up their sleeve, it could prove to be a major miscalculation in '04.

Richard W.

5 posted on 10/25/2003 1:42:27 PM PDT by arete (Greenspan is a ruling class elitist and closet socialist who is destroying the economy)
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To: sourcery
His longs are trading at pretty rich multiples: P&G, 26 times earnings, Pepsi, 23 times earnings, UPS, 23 times earnings.

If you want safety, I'd go with good utilities and oils at 10-14 times earnings, paying 4-5 percent. No matter what happens, no one is going to give up electricity and driving.
6 posted on 10/25/2003 1:44:26 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: sourcery
Thanks for this information.

Cheers.
7 posted on 10/25/2003 1:48:07 PM PDT by lodwick
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To: proxy_user
This guy is BIG TIME wrong.

I don't write a newslettter but my prediction is for 10,000 Dow by Christmas and 11,500 by election day next year.

The price of oil will drop to $22 a barrel by March, 2004, spurring on a stronger economy for the next 2 years.

Many so-called experts sat on their money last fall and this spring when the market zoomed ahead.

Major corporate leaders have hesitated to invest in new IT.
That is beginning to change.

There are only two problems looming that could cause the market to dive........another terror attack or indications that Bush might lose the election.

If Bush looks strong going into next fall, the market might rally better than it did this year.

If he gets elected and drags in new conservative tax-cutters on his coattails, the markets and the economy will be in bliss for four more years!

8 posted on 10/25/2003 2:02:27 PM PDT by CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
I do not think oil will drop, although it might dip in the short term. Too many families in India and China are buying cars.
9 posted on 10/25/2003 2:07:40 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: proxy_user
I doubt oil will drop either...as we are too far in debt to the Saudis...
who are hanging a lot of US paper.....the only way to keep them happy is
to let them keep blowing up the evil interests of the west and the price of OPEC oil high high high..
Of course they have to keep throwing a few little fish our way to stay in business...
10 posted on 10/25/2003 3:17:18 PM PDT by joesnuffy (Moderate Islam Is For Dilettantes)
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
Does anyone know what Bob Brinker has been saying lately? Haven't had a chance to listen to him in awhile.
11 posted on 10/25/2003 3:21:14 PM PDT by Davea
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To: Davea
Bob's portfolios are still fully vested in the market. However,
he has indicated his concern - in the Oct. newsletter
- over the lack of jobs in this "economic recovery" of ours.
I'm ready to pull the trigger and go to cash as soon
as he tells me to. If I had listened to him in
2000 I would be living very comfortably right about
now. Live and learn. If you have the cash I would
recommend you buy his newsletter. www.bobbrinker.com
-vm
12 posted on 10/25/2003 3:43:31 PM PDT by Vivaldi's Manifesto
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To: Vivaldi's Manifesto
Thank you for the reply. I couldn't remember how long he said this cyclical bull would last. I just found it on the web and it's 12-36 months starting in March this year (with pullbacks). I didn't hear his concern this month about the lack of jobs in this recovery. He gets pre empted where I'm at for college/pro football. I'll try to listen when I can. I did get out in 01/2000 like he said. Thank God! Got back in this April.
13 posted on 10/25/2003 4:04:01 PM PDT by Davea
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To: sourcery; arete; Starwind; proxy_user; CROSSHIGHWAYMAN; joesnuffy; Davea; Vivaldi's Manifesto; ...
Here's Michael Belkin's Oct 19 newsletter which is the subject of this article:

Belkin Report

Worth reading!

FWIW, I thoroughly agree with everything Belkin writes. Not that this means much. I'm just a tiny minnow in the vast ocean of sharks!

14 posted on 10/26/2003 3:28:24 AM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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To: sourcery; arete; Starwind; proxy_user; CROSSHIGHWAYMAN; joesnuffy; Davea; Vivaldi's Manifesto; ...
To be clear, this links to an excerpt from Belkin's Oct 19 and Oct 12 reports. The charts strike me of particular interest!
15 posted on 10/26/2003 3:34:30 AM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
There are only two problems looming that could cause the market to dive........another terror attack or indications that Bush might lose the election.

"another terror attack" = almost a certainty

"indications that Bush might lose the election" = high probability

16 posted on 10/26/2003 6:03:29 AM PST by varon
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