[sourcery]

FYI

[arete]

Belkin believes that the Bush administration essentially "rented the 2003 recovery from Wal-Mart" by cutting taxes and mailing out rebate checks, and now faces an "involuntary deleveraging process" that will feed into weaker corporate results, softer economic statistics, worsening unemployment and, eventually, a sharp decline in real estate values.

I couldn't figure out why the authorities decided to kick off the "recovery" campaign so early. Unless they have something else up their sleeve, it could prove to be a major miscalcution in '04.

Richard W.

[arete]

Belkin believes that the Bush administration essentially "rented the 2003 recovery from Wal-Mart" by cutting taxes and mailing out rebate checks, and now faces an "involuntary deleveraging process" that will feed into weaker corporate results, softer economic statistics, worsening unemployment and, eventually, a sharp decline in real estate values.

I couldn't figure out why the authorities decided to kick off the "recovery" campaign so early. Unless they have something else up their sleeve, it could prove to be a major miscalculation in '04.

Richard W.

[proxy_user]

His longs are trading at pretty rich multiples: P&G, 26 times earnings, Pepsi, 23 times earnings, UPS, 23 times earnings.

If you want safety, I'd go with good utilities and oils at 10-14 times earnings, paying 4-5 percent. No matter what happens, no one is going to give up electricity and driving.