Immigrants may be key to Bush victory

If the 2004 election is another squeaker, President Bush could lose it because he failed to follow through on his promise to help undocumented Hispanic immigrants gain legal status.

Polls indicate that Latino voters regard immigration as a litmus test issue -- the way African Americans do civil rights, one expert said -- and Bush shows signs of losing once-promising support.

Meantime, Democratic presidential candidates and members of Congress -- with some assistance from Republicans -- are moving to seize the immigration issue that Bush so far has dropped.

Bush can recoup -- and some GOP strategists say he must -- by showing renewed interest (or even taking leadership) to help illegal immigrants get legal and secure U.S. borders at the same time.

Bush carried 35 percent of the Latino vote in 2000 after a vigorous outreach effort (and frequently speaking Spanish on the stump) -- nine percent more than GOP candidate Bob Dole got in 1996.

On Sept. 6, 2001, with Mexican President Vicente Fox by his side, Bush said ''there are many in our country who are undocumented and we want to make sure their work is legal.''

After Sept. 11, 2001, homeland security concerns put a freeze on Bush's plans, and then relations with Fox soured because Mexico opposed the Iraq war. Both immigration and U.S. policy toward Latin America get constant coverage on Spanish-language television.

So this August, a New York Times/CBS poll showed that only 21 percent of Latinos would vote for Bush. And a poll for the GOP Latino Coalition showed that a generic Democrat would beat Bush by 49 percent to 30 percent.

The latest bipartisan Battleground survey showed that, of all demographic groups, Latinos showed the largest ''dropoff rate'' -- a 15 point difference between Bush's personal approval rating of 61 percent and his job performance of 46 percent.

The falloff has also hurt the GOP. In 2000, GOP congressional candidates won 34 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls. In 2002, it was 35 percent. But in the August Latino Coalition poll, registered voters said they'd vote Democratic 55 percent to 25 percent.

All this is despite findings that 35 percent of Latinos defined themselves as ''conservative'' and only 22 percent as ''liberal'' -- and by a whopping 53 percent to 7 percent, they said that lowering taxes was a better way to grow the economy than raising taxes.

Conducted by the GOP firm of McLaughlin and Associates, the poll found that 86.7 percent of Latinos favored a policy allowing the federal government to ''normalize the status of illegal workers in this country'' provided they have a clean record.

Moreover, 90.8 percent polled said it was ''important'' -- and 74.8 percent, ''very important'' -- that U.S. immigration laws be reformed to ''reduce illegal immigration by promoting a system which increases the legal flow of workers into this country.''

The leading Democratic presidential candidates are all in favor of plans to legalize undocumented immigrants with clean records, increase the number of work permits and visas, and reach an agreement with Mexico to strengthen border security.

In Congress, several bills have been introduced -- or will be -- to liberalize immigration rules. The most generous is a forthcoming measure being worked out by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) allowing immigrants who have been in the country for five years, have paid taxes for three and have taken English instruction to get legal work permits.

While some Republicans are as progressive on immigration issues as most Democrats, the GOP has a significant nativist wing calling for the denial of public services to illegals.

GOP pollster Ed Geoas, who has done extensive polling on immigration, says he's convinced that Bush and White House political adviser Karl Rove are eager to take steps toward liberalization, but are waiting until homeland security and economic conditions are better.

Another key GOP strategist says, ''we have to revisit it. It's a big issue in battleground states like New Mexico and Florida.''

In a close election ANY group could prove decisive, but if Bush wants to be reelected he better increase his share of the white vote from the pathetic 54% he got in 2000. Karl Rove himself admitted that several million conservative evangelicals may have sat out in 2000 because of Bush's pandering, though thats not the way he put it.

One of the interesting things about immigration is its degree of importance to different groups. For Hispanics it probably is more of a top-tier, vote-deciding issue. For the electorate as a whole, though, it usually doesn't rank in the top w/ education, the economy, or national security. That is the key, because while most polls show a majority of Americans want less legal immigration, and are opposed to amnesty; there is not yet a large voting block demanding one of the parties implement such policies. Of course its hard when you can count on the media and one or both political parties reducing this complex issue to sob stories and platitudes.

Polls are fascinating in how the same question can be asked in different ways and the results will vary. This poll says a majority of Hispanics want to solve illegal immigration by increasing already mass levels of legal immigration. Yet Gallup did a poll in the summer that showed about 40% of Hispanics favored reducing legal immigration. The results of these two polls obviously contradict each other. As for the whole population, most polls show a majority of Americans favor reducing legal immigration, yet as I already said neither party gives voice to this, and the voters have yet to demand it.

SUPERCAT: You said illegals vote Democratic. Yes I'm sure some do illegally vote, and of those they vote overwhelmingly Democratic. More importantly, once they get amnesty, become citizens, and vote legally; they will still vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Just like most legal immigrants do. Thats something the GOP leadership fails to see.

PUBBIE: Some illegals no doubt illegally vote. And it will be easier in states where they can get drivers licenses thanks to Motor Votor laws. ID should be required to vote.

JUSTPIPER: You seemed to buy into the whole 'Hispanics are natural conservatives' ploy designed to dupe conservatives and Republicans into supporting mass immigration of all these alleged natural conservatives. Well there is a difference between for example saying you support lower taxes, or oppose gay marriage, and actually voting for candiates who share those views. Maybe most Hispanics really do hold many conservative views; so do many blacks but that doesn't stop them from voting overwhelmingly for Democrats yr after yr. As for Hispanics, even if the masses aren't as liberal as their leaders, they show no qualms about voting for far-left representatives. There has been no groundswell among Hispanics demanding their representatives be liberal on immigration, but conservative on everything else. Bush ostensibly gave them that option in 2000, yet they still went overwhelmingly for Gore. Same thing for Dole, BushI, and Reagan; all of whom were liberal on immigration, yet never broke 37% (Reagan 1984) of the Hispanic vote. In short, they may claim to be conservative, but they consistently vote liberal.

You also said that the Hispanic vote sealed the deal for Bush in Florida. Well you could also say that the white vote in Florida delivered the state to him. You could also say the elderly vote did it for him ( well here I'm not so sure, I seem to remember hearing he won the Fl elderly vote but I'm not sure). But as to Hispanics, his winning their vote in Fl was due to Cubans, who traditionally go Republican. But there are problems with taking heart in that. First of all, Cubans were becoming less Republican until the Elian Gonzales debacle got them fired up to go for Bush more so than they would have otherwise. Secondly, Cubans are not the only Hispanic game in town in Florida anymore. Most Hispanic growth in the state is from non-Cuban Hispanics, who go Democratic.

TXDODA: Maybe I misunderstood you, but it sounded like you said Bush didn't pander to get the Hispanics he got in 2000. I have to disagree. He pandered on a level that would make Democrats proud with all of his speaking in spanish, and saying things like 'family values don't stop at the Rio Grande.' I wanted to puke when I heard a so-called conservative reducing the issue of immigration to such a shameless pc soundbite.

>> No denying though the hispanic vote from Florida sealed it for "W" <<

Cuban vote, yes. "Hispanic" vote, certainly not. Nationwide, Cubans make up a very small percentage of "hispanics". Cubans may have tilted Florida to Bush, but that was canceled out by the Mexican vote in NM and other regions throwing their states to GORE. Take out their votes, and Bush probably won NM easily. The "hispanic" vote overall certainly caused Kennedy/Johnson to win the 1960 election. Otherwise, Texas' electoral votes would have ended up in the Nixon column, and with them, the presidency.

And most Cuban Americans are law-abiding folks fleeing persecution in an oppressive, communist country. They're very open about applying for asylum for being political prisoners and don't need to sneak into this country.

Maybe I misunderstood you, but it sounded like you said Bush didn't pander to get the Hispanics he got in 2000. I have to disagree. He pandered on a level that would make Democrats proud with all of his speaking in spanish, and saying things like 'family values don't stop at the Rio Grande.' I wanted to puke when I heard a so-called conservative reducing the issue of immigration to such a shameless pc soundbite. >>>>>>>

Yes, American politics hit a new LOW, when Bush decided to give speeches in spanish. Could be another reason many conservatives 'sat out in 2000'.

In this thread the 'pandering' I was refering to was 'Doofus Davis' *suddenly* signing in bills for illegals reduced tuitions, acceptance of the matricula card, and ALSO a CA drivers license. (funny AFTER his loss, Davis now vetoing most of these bills....hahaha).

Hopefully Bush checked the CA stats & figured out many hispanics voted against Davis and all the 'perks' he offered up to the illegals, in exchange for HIS job.

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