[Pokey78]

Fred ping.

[untenured]

Just as a thought experiment, suppose the GOP had for seven years or so the sort of dominance in DC that the Democrats had when LBJ was in power -- RINO-proof majorities in both houses, the White House, the ability to reshape the Supreme Court. What would they do? How, a decade later, would the country be different?

[Torie]

Far too much emphasis the weight has been put on the recall election, as some harbinger of a reallignment. There was a slow and steady realignment from about 1977 on, that slowly made the GOP into a parity party from a minority party. The Burnham hypothesis based on about 4 data points (an absudly small statistical sample), or realligning elections, really did not pan out.

In any event, the whole schematic is dated. The allignments are driven these days by style and what superficial cultural issues are in play, and just how the somewhat economically pressed Anglo lower middle class vote goes, which is cross conflicted by a host of issues. The idea that there will be a stable majority party holding sway is profoundly silly. It is unlikely to happen, particularly since with modern communications and focus groups and pollings, the parties, and more to the point, political entreprenuers, can tack with considerably more accuracy and boatloads of more media money, towards trying to garner the vital swing voters.

Thus I suspects public squares like FR will be endlessly fascinating until sometime after I depart this mortal coil.

[Petronski]

If there has been a realignment, it is because conservatives have continued to talk about what they want and for what the stand, while liberals have become more and more shrill, more dependant on the smear, more likely to demonize--and each escalation of this pettiness has made them even less credible.

[pawdoggie]

Gee, Fred better not tell Dickie Morris. He thinks there's an inevitable swing to the Rats coming (due to increased "Hispanic" immigration, more professional women in the work force, declining White birth rate, phases of the moon, etc). Under Dick's theory, the GOP better move heavily left real soon, and attack Iran. Morris has become Cicero of our time in demanding the immediate sacking of Teheran.

[Wilhelm Tell]

Schwarzenegger's prominence makes it okay for voters who are moderate-to-liberal on cultural issues but conservative on taxes and spending to be Republican.

So it is somehow an improvement that the new Republicans can run an intrusive, power-mad welfare state more efficiently than the Democrats can? I am tired of politicians who only argue about which one of them can afford to place the most chains around my neck. A case in point, I would love it if the Republicans would fight hard to put good judges in office rather than mumble about how "compassionate" they are (too compassionate to put up a fight). There are too many so-called conservatives who never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. A fundamental problem is that Democrat leaders at the national level know what they believe in -- a watered-down version of Marxism. Some Republican leaders don't seem to know what they believe in.

[Clintonfatigued]

The Republican realignment is happening, no doubt about that. But it is still a work in progress. The realignment of the American public has not been a watershed, like after The Great Deperssion. It has been a slow and gradual change in voter sentiment, and continues to be so. And it's as much do to the decline of the 'Rats. The 'Rat party was once a blue-collar party, favorably disposed towards income redistribution, but still recognizably American. It has sense become the party of self-serving bureaucrats, military-hating demagogues, militant secularists, environmental extremeists, law-enforcement obstructers, ivory-tower Ivy-Leaguers, radical feminists, smug, know-it-all journalists, and Hollywood airheads. The cover of the media elite had covered this up for many years, but now it's out there for all to see and hear (talk radio and the internet played a role in this). In some ways, the Republican realignment illistrates the tragic downfall of the Democrat party, which has a flawed but honorable history in this country. Perhaps, like the Whigs, they will crumble under the weight of their current illogic and a new party will rise in its place.

[WOSG]

Davis says the divide on cultural issues--abortion, gays, guns, etc.--is a diminishing problem for Republicans. Schwarzenegger's prominence makes it okay for voters who are moderate-to-liberal on cultural issues but conservative on taxes and spending to be Republican. These voters require "permission to stay Republican," Davis argues. And Schwarzenegger "gives them a comfort level. But Democrats don't have anyone to make cultural conservatives feel comfortable. It's the Democrats' worst nightmare."

This is great. Republicans can win on fiscal *or* cultural issues, while Democrats are stuck in the ghettos of welfarism and/or cultural depravity in the big cities. We should not complain too much about a big-tent Republican party, it means the right-of-center conservative-moderate coalition RUNS the country, instead of Liberals ... IT BEATS "MAJORITYLEADER DASCHLE" and "PRESIDENT HILLARY!"

[ETERNAL WARMING]

Realignment has already happened, and there's no reason to pretend otherwise.

If it's sustainable. I know many Conservatives who have now left the party. The Republicans can no longer take their vote for granted. The Republicans went so far Left in an attempt to grab voters, that they're lost their base. We'll know in 'O4.

[ktw]

There can be many reasons why this is happening, but these are the two greatest.
(1) As people grow older, the majority of them get to be conservative.
(2) Therefore, the minorities are voting more GOP than before. The Democrats know this and are trying to get other groups of younger people to vote. For example. The effort to allow people in Jail/Prison to vote. Lowering the Voting age to 16. Allowing Non-US people to vote. By giving Non-US people drivers licenses, they can go down to the local Motor Registration and get a Voters Registration card and fill it out.
As you can see, the Democrats know this and are trying to combat it by allowing NEW groups to vote.

[lainde]

bttt

[Greybird]

I'm endlessly amused about how gerrymandering is decried in California, because it locks out potential Republican gains -- and praised in Texas, because it locks in potential Republican gains.

This, supposedly, is principled?

Turn it over to computers that draw contiguous, non-biased, strictly-by-population maps. Iowa has somehow managed this. Too many spoils are up for grabs, though, by comparison in California and Texas.

[tkathy]

A moderate, tolerant, more inclusive Republican Party will rule.

[bimbo]

The author makes a fatal assumption: That having elected more ‘R’s than ‘D’s is going to improve things. Well, the ‘R’s have had majorities in significant Government Bodies long enough to make a difference – they haven’t. The best that can be said of their tenure in Power is that they perhaps allow thing to deteriorate more slowly than the ‘D’s would have.

Senate Republicans are so meek that they cannot even bear the thought of displeasing Democrats over Bush’s Judicial appointments.

[Katya]

"(In fact, I believe most polls underestimate Republican ID because of nominal Democrats who routinely vote Republican.)"

Describes my father-in-law, who at 75 has always been a registered democrat, but only once has a democrat received his vote.
When questioned "why" he's still a democrat...."I have hope for the party. "

[William Terrell]

If it doesn't stop the spread of socialism and world government, but actively continues both, what good is it?

[iamright]

Thanks again for the ping!

[The Raven]

Thank's for the link.

Fred is far too optimistic, here.

The Dems have that ugly weapon, perfected in the Clinton years, of trashing the opponent (Ken Starr, Newt, etc).

Since their ideology is not something the average voter would latch on to (if the voter knew the long-term results), the Dems need to spew propaganda and, most importantly, pack the courts to avoid public discourse.

I have the opposite opinion....I think we're headed to socialism and ultimately, when all is "free," the military is gone, and work incentives are nil, we'll collapse into malaise.

[ChadGore]

Emerging ?

The American people delivered the GOP to a majority in the Senate and the House in 200 and 2002. The GOP majority in the house is now a decade old!

The GOP has the majority of Govnerships cross the country.

The GOP has a majority in the majority of state houses across the country.

Emerging?

With the exception of jumpin jim jeffords, a sleazy back room deal to thwart the will of the people, the DNC hasn't weilded majorty power in the millenium.

[Publius6961]

Matthew Dowd, President Bush's polling expert, notes heavy Republican turnout in 2002 and the recall, a splintering of the Democratic coalition, Republican gains among Latinos, and shrinking Democratic voter identification--all unmistakable signs of realignment.

What monumental BS!
It would be a monumental error to interpret all of the foregoing as "realignment".

Anger is not realignment. Anger is fickle and unpredictable. Events continue to face the electorate and they will react as circumstances demand, depending on the voter's perception of what is in his best interests regardless of party label.

Insisting on labelling voters is the worst thing strategists and pundits can do. It annoys us, it irritates us and it assures that we will in fact react unpredictably. We want to see consistency and clarity. We want less BS. We want to change things that don't work.

A good example: we want a close look at all levels, from the feds on down, of "untouchable" budget items. They must go. All of them. The worst case unintended consequences of this childish approach to managing a state (or a country) has failed. Experience is a great generator of frustration and anger.

Pretending that we are all on fire and we can't put the fire out because the budget won't allow it and "we are locked into" blah blah blah is the current third rail of politics, and the sooner they see it the better.

Party is irrelevant.