The (Finally) Emerging Republican Majority

The Weekly Standard ^ | 10/27/03 | Fred Barnes

[Torie]

Given the demographics of the Slavic regions (the ferility rate is about 1.5), that number leaving the home Slav counties, might empty the place of a certain mammalian species, namely homo sapiens.

[Monty22]

"What would they do? How, a decade later, would the country be different?"

Republicans tend to get kinda complacent without competition. I'm not sure it's good that we have TOO much of a majority :)

Lets see how the AWB ban goes, that'll be a big sign of if they'll do what they need to when in control.

[Pubbie]

Again you are assuming the Russian birthrate stays EXACTLY the same for over 40 years, that is avery BIG assumprtion.

Anyway, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova have a combined population of 206 million people, so 20 million people immigrating wouldn't be that catastrophic.

[untenured]

It's more like 19%-20% of GDP.

You're right. The 2001 Statistical Abstract has federal spending at 1864 billion, total GDP at 10,082 billion.

I had remembered often seeing the Wall Street Journal editorial page claim that income taxes to GDP were typically 17-20% of GDP, and thought that Social Security taxes and borrowing would have pushed it over 25%, but evidently not.

Whether I did actually see the WSJ say that before my memory lost some of its youthful vigor is another matter, of course.

I wonder what the figure would be after five (or 20) years of GOP dominance of the fedgov.

[Torie]

By the way, if you read Michael Barone about the Hispanic vote, and how its evolution has so eerily tracked the Italian vote of an earlier time, (low voter turnout and relative disinterest in politics and both disinterest and suspicion in relying on the goverment as a safety net (can't trust the bastards, and by all means, avoid paying any taxes to the extent one can without going to jail), great physical industry and hard work, somewhat below average emphasis on education, tight families and neighborhoods, a patriarchal orientation (today the word would be "sexist")), you would be amazed. You simply want instant gratification. Be patient.

[Clintonfatigued]

The Republican realignment is happening, no doubt about that. But it is still a work in progress. The realignment of the American public has not been a watershed, like after The Great Deperssion. It has been a slow and gradual change in voter sentiment, and continues to be so. And it's as much do to the decline of the 'Rats. The 'Rat party was once a blue-collar party, favorably disposed towards income redistribution, but still recognizably American. It has sense become the party of self-serving bureaucrats, military-hating demagogues, militant secularists, environmental extremeists, law-enforcement obstructers, ivory-tower Ivy-Leaguers, radical feminists, smug, know-it-all journalists, and Hollywood airheads. The cover of the media elite had covered this up for many years, but now it's out there for all to see and hear (talk radio and the internet played a role in this). In some ways, the Republican realignment illistrates the tragic downfall of the Democrat party, which has a flawed but honorable history in this country. Perhaps, like the Whigs, they will crumble under the weight of their current illogic and a new party will rise in its place.

[Torie]

You do know Moldova speaks a Romance language don't you? I wouldn't trust them as a result. Slavs speaking a non Slav language. That is highly suspect. Why do you mention them by the way and not Romanians proper?

[WOSG]

Davis says the divide on cultural issues--abortion, gays, guns, etc.--is a diminishing problem for Republicans. Schwarzenegger's prominence makes it okay for voters who are moderate-to-liberal on cultural issues but conservative on taxes and spending to be Republican. These voters require "permission to stay Republican," Davis argues. And Schwarzenegger "gives them a comfort level. But Democrats don't have anyone to make cultural conservatives feel comfortable. It's the Democrats' worst nightmare."

This is great. Republicans can win on fiscal *or* cultural issues, while Democrats are stuck in the ghettos of welfarism and/or cultural depravity in the big cities. We should not complain too much about a big-tent Republican party, it means the right-of-center conservative-moderate coalition RUNS the country, instead of Liberals ... IT BEATS "MAJORITYLEADER DASCHLE" and "PRESIDENT HILLARY!"

[Torie]

By the way, Ukraine and Belarus and Moldova have less than a 100 million people combined, far less. I doubt if it is as much as 50 million. Look it up.

[WOSG]

Here is mine:

- Judges who will reverse Roe v Wade
- A Federal Government no bigger than 15% of GNP (it is 20% now).
- Social Security and Medicare reformed so people have more choice and control over it and the tax burden on it is less
- More Federalism, less Federal control.

What else would you order?
What else whould you want? Ask and you shall receive!

[Antoninus]

Morris has become Cicero of our time in demanding the immediate sacking of Teheran.

That would be Cato, I think...

[WOSG]

"If the Republicans had the brains to point out that Clinton's "accomplishments" were the product of a Republican Congress, they would have made huge gains in 1996. Unfortunately, they decided instead to blast themselves in the feet by supporting that loser Dole."

INDEED! Proof that a bad campaigner can ruin a whole re-alignment. America was ready to realign in 1948, but Dewey ran an awful campaign, and Truman triumphed. The Republican Congress of 1946 was the most convervative Congress between 1928 and 1994, but its heyday was shortlived. ... Fortunately, Bush saved us somewhat in 2000 and 2002, so that 1994 was not just a blip .... AND YET, we have a Republican majority but not a conservative majority.

[Clintonfatigued]

Why is it that the United States is limiting immigrants from Russia and eastern Europe, while allowing potentially dangerous people from north Africa and the Middle East to arrive in such large numbers?

[Pubbie]

"you would be amazed. You simply want instant gratification. Be patient."

I disagree with Barone on this point that the Hispanic vote tracks with the Italian immigrants (But I like him anyway).

It is somewhat of a myth that Hispanics are socially conservative.

For one thing, 43% of Hispanic children born last year were born out of wedlock, compared to 68% of Black births, 22% for Whites, and 17% for Asians - something that did definetely NOT happen with Italian immigrants.

Although Hispanics disapprove of Homosexuality, so do Black Americans, yet that hasn't helped the GOP get any significant amount of the Black vote.

Furthermore, most Latin American cultures are heavily influenced by Western Europe, and since Western Europe is now Rock-Solid- Militantly Atheist, Atheism is now taking hold in Latin America, and church attendance there is already at near-Western European lows.

Abortion, along with divorce, has skyrocketed in the past decade throughout Latin America, despite obviously strong disapproval by the Vatican.

And finally, Like Western Europeans, Latin Americans are very sexually promiscous, again another feature not found in Italian Immigrants.

I could go on, but I'm tired and need to go to sleep, maybe we will continue this discussion tomorrow.

Best Regards,

Pubbie

[Pubbie]

"Ukraine and Belarus and Moldova"

Over 62 million - plus you're forgetting Russia with 144.5 Million. so that puts the total over 206 million.

[Torie]

Good post, but Italian men back when knew sex outside of marriage as a generalization. Granted, in that earlier age, out of wedlock children were rarer. When women were knocked up, one got married, and then, well, whatever. All the best.

[Torie]

I will take your word for it. You didn't mention Russia. I take it, your exclusion was an accident. In any event, 20 million of them are not coming to the US in any rather narrow window of time.

[Pubbie]

"You do know Moldova speaks a Romance language don't you?"

Sure, but ethnically they are a combination of Slavs and Romanians due to intermarriage - and most Romanians don't consider Moldovans to be "True" Romanians.

In fact, Moldovans want their country to merge with Russia, which they consider they're ethnic brothers in the same way that Eastern Ukrainians want to relink with Russia.

[Torie]

By the way, you do know that Slavs living in Slav nations have the highest abortion rate on this planet don't you?

[Stultis]

The idea that there will be a stable majority party holding sway is profoundly silly. It is unlikely to happen, particularly since with modern communications and focus groups and pollings, the parties, and more to the point, political entreprenuers, can tack with considerably more accuracy and with boatloads of more money for the media, towards trying to garner the vital swing voters.

Disagree. Your analysis overlooks the fact that the political parties, and their candidates, must service their core constituencies, and must meet their approval in primary elections to become candidates in the first place.

Because of the relentless pressure exerted by a dominantly leftist intelligencia and media over several decades, the Republican Party has been forced to marginalize or exclude extremists, whereas extremists have been allowed to thrive in the Democratic because of cover provided by these same socially influential elements.

Since the margin between the two parties is decided by their appeal to moderates and independents, and since moderates and independents are hostile to political extremists (of either ideological wing) this puts Republicans at an advantage over Democrats. The GOP has become the majority party, and there is every prospect that it will remain so until the extreme left is expelled from their position of substantial control and influence within the Democratic Party.