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The (Finally) Emerging Republican Majority
The Weekly Standard ^ | 10/27/03 | Fred Barnes

Posted on 10/17/2003 9:15:05 PM PDT by Pokey78

GOP officials don't like to talk about it, but they have become the dominant party.

A FTER THE 1972 AND 1980 ELECTIONS, Republicans said political realignment across the country would soon make them the dominant party. It didn't happen. Now, despite highly favorable signs in the 2002 midterm elections and the California recall, Republicans fear a jinx. Realignment? they ask. What realignment?

Matthew Dowd, President Bush's polling expert, notes heavy Republican turnout in 2002 and the recall, a splintering of the Democratic coalition, Republican gains among Latinos, and shrinking Democratic voter identification--all unmistakable signs of realignment. But he won't call it realignment. Whoa! says Bill McInturff, one of the smartest Republican strategists, let's not be premature. Before anyone claims realignment has put Republicans in control nationally, McInturff says, the GOP must win the White House, Senate, and House in 2004 and maybe even hold Congress in 2006. Bush adviser Karl Rove agrees. He recently told a Republican group that the realignment question won't be decided until 2004.

There's really no reason to wait. Realignment is already here, and well advanced. In 1964, Barry Goldwater cracked the Democratic lock on the South. In 1968 and 1972, Republicans established a permanent advantage in presidential races. In the big bang of realignment, 1994, Republicans took the House and Senate and wiped out Democratic leads in governorships and state legislatures. Now, realignment has reached its entrenchment phase. Republicans are tightening their grip on Washington and erasing their weakness among women and Latinos. The gender gap now exposes Democratic weakness among men. Sure, an economic collapse or political shock could reverse these gains. But that's not likely.

Look at the recall. With two ballot questions, no party primaries, and a short campaign, it wasn't a normal election. But it displayed all the signs of realignment. Republicans were enthusiastic, Democrats downcast, Latinos in play, and the gender gap was stood on its head. The result: California is no longer a reliably Democratic state. Until the October 7 recall that replaced Democratic governor Gray Davis with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republicans hadn't won a major statewide race since 1994. Bush spent millions there in 2000 but lost California by 11 points to Al Gore, who spent zilch in the state.

Yet in the recall, Republicans captured 62 percent of the vote. Bush's approval rating was slightly positive (49 to 48 percent), roughly the same as in other states. In the Fox News exit poll, 39 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats, 37 percent as Republicans--a big GOP gain since last year when the Democratic lead was 7 or 8 points. A solid majority of women voted to recall Davis and elect a Republican. According to the Los Angeles Times exit poll, 41 percent of Latinos voted for a Republican governor--over a Latino Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. California is now competitive.

Democrats insist the recall merely showed anger against incumbents. In fact, it showed California was catching up with a powerful Republican trend over the past decade. In 1992, Democrats captured 51 percent of the total vote in House races to 46 percent for Republicans. By 2002, those numbers had flipped--Republicans 51 percent, Democrats 46 percent. And Republicans have held their House majority over five elections, including two in which Democratic presidential candidates won the popular vote. They won 230 House seats in 1994, 226 in 1996, 223 in 1998, 221 in 2000, and 229 in 2002. They also won Senate control in those elections.

These voting patterns fit Walter Dean Burnham's definition of realignment: "a sudden transformation that turns out to be permanent." Burnham is a University of Texas political scientist, just retired but still the chief theorist of realignment. He is neither a Republican nor a conservative.

The same Republican trend is true for state elections. In 1992, Democrats captured 59 percent of state legislative seats (4,344 to 3,031 for Republicans). Ten years later, Republicans won their first majority (3,684 to 3,626) of state legislators since 1952. In 1992, Democrats controlled the legislatures of 25 states to 8 for Republicans, while the others had split control. Today, Republicans rule 21 legislatures to 16 for Democrats. Governors? Republicans had 18 in 1992, Democrats 30. Today, Republicans hold 27 governorships, Democrats 23.

Not to belabor dry numbers, but Republicans have also surged in party identification. Go back to 1982, the year of the first midterm election of Ronald Reagan's presidency. The Harris Poll found Democrats had a 14-point edge (40 to 26 percent) as the party with which voters identified. By 1992, the Democratic edge was 6 points (36 to 30 percent) and last year, President Bush's midterm election, it was 3 points (34 to 31 percent).

But the Harris Poll tilts slightly Democratic. (In fact, I believe most polls underestimate Republican ID because of nominal Democrats who routinely vote Republican.)The 2000 national exit poll showed Republicans and Democrats tied at 34 percent. A Republican poll after the 2002 elections gave the party a 3- to 4-point edge. Based on his own poll in July, Democrat Mark Penn (who once polled for Bill Clinton) declared: "In terms of the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, the Democratic party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal." His survey pegged Democratic ID at 32 percent, Republican ID at 30 percent. A half-century ago, 49 percent of voters said they were Democrats. Today, wrote Penn, "among middle class voters, the Democratic party is a shadow of its former self."

All these figures represent "a general creeping mode of realignment, election by election," says Burnham. By gaining governors and state legislators, Republicans are now in the entrenchment phase. "If you control the relevant institutions, you can really do a number on the opposition," Burnham says. "You can marginalize them."

Last year, Republicans shattered the mold of midterm elections for a new president, picking up nine House seats. Most of these came from Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states where Republicans controlled the legislature and governor's office in 2001 and exploited the new census to draw House districts for Republican advantage. In 2002, Republicans completed their takeover of Texas by winning the state house of representatives. This allowed them to gerrymander the U.S. House districts earlier this month to target incumbent white Democrats. Unless the redistricting is overturned in court, Democrats may lose five to seven seats in 2004. "Texas means there's no battle for the House" until after the 2010 census, says Republican pollster Frank Luntz. Democrats may wind up with fewer than 200 seats for the first time since 1946, says Burnham.

Democrats have theorized that the voting patterns of Hispanics, women, and urban professionals were producing what analysts John Judis and Ruy Teixeira called an "emerging Democratic majority." But in 2002 and the recall, the theory faltered. The midterm elections saw the demise of the old gender gap--women voting more Democratic than men--that had endured for over two decades. The intervening event was the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. That "really did change things permanently," says Burnham. In 2002, women, partly out of concern for the security and safety of their families, voted like men. Florida exemplified the change. In 2000, President Bush lost the vote of female professionals in the burgeoning I-4 corridor across central Florida. In 2002, his brother, Republican governor Jeb Bush, won that vote.

The California recall offered another test of whether the gender gap had been reversed, especially since Schwarzenegger was accused of sexual harassment. In the Fox poll, 53 percent of women voted to recall Davis, 56 percent for a Republican for governor (43 percent for Schwarzenegger). White women were even more Republican--58 percent for recall, 63 percent for a Republican (49 percent for Schwarzenegger).

What about men? In the recall, they voted more Republican than women by 8 points, which highlights the gender gap problem for Democrats. The shift of men to the Republican party was the engine of realignment in the South and plains and Rocky Mountain states. Penn agrees: "The main decline has been due to a massive defection among white voters, particularly men," he wrote in analyzing his own July poll. "Today only 22 percent of white men identify as Democratic voters and only 32 percent of white women do the same. Blacks continue to remain stalwarts of the party, while Hispanics are now split between Democrats and Independents." The Latino vote is all the more important because it is growing as a percentage of the national electorate. The black vote isn't.

The good news for Republicans is that Latino independents are increasingly inclined to vote Republican. It may not have been a big deal in 1998, when George Bush won half the Latino vote in his reelection as Texas governor. It was, however, a big deal when Jeb Bush captured a majority of the non-Cuban Latino vote in Florida last year. George Bush, running for president, had lost this vote decisively in Florida in 2000.

In the recall, Republican inroads among Latinos were extraordinary. "One cardinal principle of Democratic party politics in California . . . has been that Latinos, like African-Americans, will remain loyal Democrats regardless of what the party does," Joel Kotkin, a senior fellow at Pepperdine University and respected California political analyst, wrote for the New Republic website. That principle crumbled in the recall. Democrats attacked Schwarzenegger for backing Proposition 187, which barred illegal immigrants from getting public services but was later overturned, and for opposing driver's licenses for illegals. Nonetheless, he got 31 percent of the Latino vote, the best showing for a Republican candidate in California in a decade. Blacks voted 18 percent for Schwarzenegger.

Democrats have two further problems, one with image, the other with culture. With Schwarzenegger and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani as the second and third most visible Republicans in the country, it's difficult for Democrats to pigeonhole Republicans as conservative extremists. Schwarzenegger "bridges the cultural gap" between moderate and conservative Republicans, says Republican representative Tom Davis of Virginia, an elections expert. Luntz, the Republican pollster, says the emergence of Schwarzenegger means "you can be cool and be a Republican." By the way, when Schwarzenegger appeared with Bush in California last week, he got a bigger ovation than the president.

Davis says the divide on cultural issues--abortion, gays, guns, etc.--is a diminishing problem for Republicans. Schwarzenegger's prominence makes it okay for voters who are moderate-to-liberal on cultural issues but conservative on taxes and spending to be Republican. These voters require "permission to stay Republican," Davis argues. And Schwarzenegger "gives them a comfort level. But Democrats don't have anyone to make cultural conservatives feel comfortable. It's the Democrats' worst nightmare."

Nothing is guaranteed in politics. The political future is never a straight-line projection of the present. And the ascendant party always hits bumps in the road. Democrats were dominant from 1932 to 1994, but they lost major elections in 1938, 1946, and 1952. Now, Republicans are stronger than at any time in at least a half-century and probably since the 1920s. Realignment has already happened, and there's no reason to pretend otherwise.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: fredbarnes; gop; realignment; recallanalysis; republicanmajority; republicans
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1 posted on 10/17/2003 9:15:05 PM PDT by Pokey78
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To: Howlin; JohnHuang2; Sabertooth; Miss Marple; terilyn; lainde; KeyWest; MeeknMing; ...
Fred ping.
2 posted on 10/17/2003 9:15:32 PM PDT by Pokey78 ("I thought this country was founded on a principle of progressive taxation." Wesley Clark to Russert)
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To: Pokey78
Just as a thought experiment, suppose the GOP had for seven years or so the sort of dominance in DC that the Democrats had when LBJ was in power -- RINO-proof majorities in both houses, the White House, the ability to reshape the Supreme Court. What would they do? How, a decade later, would the country be different?
3 posted on 10/17/2003 9:23:52 PM PDT by untenured
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To: Pokey78
Far too much emphasis the weight has been put on the recall election, as some harbinger of a reallignment. There was a slow and steady realignment from about 1977 on, that slowly made the GOP into a parity party from a minority party. The Burnham hypothesis based on about 4 data points (an absudly small statistical sample), or realligning elections, really did not pan out.

In any event, the whole schematic is dated. The allignments are driven these days by style and what superficial cultural issues are in play, and just how the somewhat economically pressed Anglo lower middle class vote goes, which is cross conflicted by a host of issues. The idea that there will be a stable majority party holding sway is profoundly silly. It is unlikely to happen, particularly since with modern communications and focus groups and pollings, the parties, and more to the point, political entreprenuers, can tack with considerably more accuracy and boatloads of more media money, towards trying to garner the vital swing voters.

Thus I suspects public squares like FR will be endlessly fascinating until sometime after I depart this mortal coil.

4 posted on 10/17/2003 9:27:06 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Pokey78
If there has been a realignment, it is because conservatives have continued to talk about what they want and for what the stand, while liberals have become more and more shrill, more dependant on the smear, more likely to demonize--and each escalation of this pettiness has made them even less credible.
5 posted on 10/17/2003 9:28:24 PM PDT by Petronski (Living life in a minor key.)
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To: Pokey78
I remember another book with that title. The author made a convincing argument. Then along came Nixon, who not only established the EPA to pacify the left, but then allowed the label of corrupt party to be pasted on Republicans for nearly a generation.
6 posted on 10/17/2003 9:29:33 PM PDT by kylaka
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To: Pokey78
Gee, Fred better not tell Dickie Morris. He thinks there's an inevitable swing to the Rats coming (due to increased "Hispanic" immigration, more professional women in the work force, declining White birth rate, phases of the moon, etc). Under Dick's theory, the GOP better move heavily left real soon, and attack Iran. Morris has become Cicero of our time in demanding the immediate sacking of Teheran.
7 posted on 10/17/2003 9:34:16 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: Torie
Try again:

Far too much emphasis and weight has been put on the recall election, as some harbinger of a realignment. There was a slow and steady realignment from about 1977 on, that slowly made the GOP into a parity party from a minority party. There was no seismic event, Reagan to the contrary notwithstanding, although Reagan was a factor. The Burnham hypothesis based on about 4 data points (an absurdly small statistical sample), on realigning elections as some political harbinger, that occurred about every 30 to 40 years or so, really did not pan out.

In any event, the whole schematic is dated. The alignments are driven these days by style and what superficial cultural issues are in play, and just how the somewhat economically pressed Anglo lower middle class vote goes, which is cross conflicted by a host of issues. The idea that there will be a stable majority party holding sway is profoundly silly. It is unlikely to happen, particularly since with modern communications and focus groups and pollings, the parties, and more to the point, political entreprenuers, can tack with considerably more accuracy and with boatloads of more money for the media, towards trying to garner the vital swing voters.

Thus I suspects public squares like FR will be endlessly fascinating until sometime after I depart this

8 posted on 10/17/2003 9:34:49 PM PDT by Torie
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To: untenured
We'll find out next year if Fred Barnes' theory holds up. I think that in liberal states, the GOP can competitive if it grabs conservatives who are moderate to liberal on cultural issues. The Democrats don't have any one to make social conservatives feel welcome in their party. The Republicans have figured how to occupy the center and advance conservative principles without looking like they want to tell people what to do in their bedrooms or being hung up on gays. We've moved past that. Give us 40 years in power and the country will be a lot different than it is today.
9 posted on 10/17/2003 9:35:00 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: pawdoggie
"Rats coming (due to increased "Hispanic" immigration, more professional women in the work force, declining White birth rate, phases of the moon, etc)."

Russian and Ukrainian immigrants vote 80% Republican.

If the US allows only 20 million Russian and Ukrainian immigrants into the US over 10 years, then that will COMPLETELY offset the growth of the Hispanic population (30% of which will come from Illegal Immigrants who can't vote).
10 posted on 10/17/2003 9:38:23 PM PDT by Pubbie (Vote "No" On Recall, "Yes" On Bustamante)
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To: untenured
Probably grow government at an even bigger rate than now.
11 posted on 10/17/2003 9:43:18 PM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: goldstategop
Republicans have figured how to occupy the center and advance conservative principles without looking like they want to tell people what to do in their bedrooms or being hung up on gays. We've moved past that. Give us 40 years in power and the country will be a lot different than it is today.

Can you talk with any confidence about particulars? Do you think much of current federal spending (which I'm guessing is between 25 and 30% of GDP, much of it for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security) will be gone? What will the relationship between the federal government and the states be? Will Roe v. Wade still be the law of the land? I offer these up only as examples; any insights would be useful.

What are the "conservative principles" to which a meaningfully empowered GOP would be most devoted? It's never been seen in my lifetime, so it's worth thinking about what, in detail, it would mean.

12 posted on 10/17/2003 9:44:00 PM PDT by untenured
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To: untenured
Reducing taxes, pruning back government regulations, and making America more pro-life. We didn't get to our statist society over night. We have to be incremental and work as long and hard to achieve our objectives as the Democrats did to attain theirs. And we're just getting started.
13 posted on 10/17/2003 9:46:50 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Doctor Stochastic
Yep, the smallest government per experience comes from the GOP controlling the legislature, and the Dems controlling the presidency. But smaller government, is not really what most voters care about. Indeed, it is not what I primarily care about, and I admit it (what I care about, and why, and when, is beyond the scope here). You know that, and I know that. It is an abstract idea, without meaning that translates into the average voter's life. They are more micro than macro, particularly when it comes to state and local elections, and to a lessor extent federal elections, and lessor still, but still important, presidential elections.
14 posted on 10/17/2003 9:48:15 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Petronski
And the left has stuck to nothing but old, tired and worn out ideas from the 1940's and 1960's. More and more voters know these universal, one size fits all, top down controlled government programs do not work.

When the GOP forced Clinton to sign welfare reform in 1996 after he vetoed two previous bills (the first he called too draconian, the second he just babbled nonsense about and the third, which was closer to the first, he finally signed) voters could see that the old government model was wrong. Report after report they read of women being forced to quit school or lose welfare money or stop running a small business like braiding hair or lose all welfare money, etc. (But of course, after whining about welfare reform and focusing their entire 1996 convention around "fixing reform", the Dems took credit for it's success)

So now these voters are usually more receptible to listen to new ideas about Socical Security, Medicare, etc. This is why, in my opinion, the one size fits all, universal, top down underestimated prescription drug program isn't still the #1 topic of the day. You can't get lower middle class and poor voters to care about a program when they are told billionares over the age of 67 would also get free drugs.

Why the Dems just don't allow the free market reforms the GOP wants and means test the prescription drugs is silly to me. They can claim credit with the Republicans and show bipartisanship. But instead, they stick to the old 1965 Medicare model.

My father is 68 and a lifelong Democrat (he did vote for Nixon in 1972 though) and does not and will not participate in Medicare. He would rather work 32-35 hours a week to get health coverage for him and my mom. This cuts into his measly Soc Sec money thanks to Bill Clinton's 1993 tax bill and since my mom never worked much she doesn't get hardly any. And he knows the premiums charged for Medicare Part B are ungodly.

When I talk to him about privatization and free market reforms, he's all for the ideas and wish he had those options. So now, even though he's getting out voted living in Portland, OR, he'll more than likely vote GOP.

My mom is a lost cause! lol She still thinks Soc Sec should be paying her $1,500 a month or more and all of her health insurance even though she hardly worked outside the home!
15 posted on 10/17/2003 9:51:15 PM PDT by Fledermaus (I'm a conservative...not a Republican.)
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To: Torie
As long as the GOP promises a bit more safety, free schooling, free old age care, and free prescription drugs, they can stay the majority. Saving Medicare, Social Security, and providing money for schools and health care is the key to majority status.
16 posted on 10/17/2003 9:53:17 PM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: untenured
It's more like 19%-20% of GDP.
17 posted on 10/17/2003 9:54:01 PM PDT by Fledermaus (I'm a conservative...not a Republican.)
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To: Pokey78
Schwarzenegger's prominence makes it okay for voters who are moderate-to-liberal on cultural issues but conservative on taxes and spending to be Republican.

So it is somehow an improvement that the new Republicans can run an intrusive, power-mad welfare state more efficiently than the Democrats can? I am tired of politicians who only argue about which one of them can afford to place the most chains around my neck. A case in point, I would love it if the Republicans would fight hard to put good judges in office rather than mumble about how "compassionate" they are (too compassionate to put up a fight). There are too many so-called conservatives who never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. A fundamental problem is that Democrat leaders at the national level know what they believe in -- a watered-down version of Marxism. Some Republican leaders don't seem to know what they believe in.

18 posted on 10/17/2003 9:54:54 PM PDT by Wilhelm Tell (Lurking since 1997!)
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To: Torie
"But smaller government, is not really what most voters care about."

The overall idea is abstract, but smaller government is the basis for a multitude of ideas that increasingly appealing to the Whites such as Lower Taxes, less business regulations etc...

So far the White Population is becoming more and more Conservative with every passing decade.

The only problem for the GOP is the growth of the Hispanic population, but as I said, if you bring in 20 million Russians and Ukrainians that waters down the potency of the Hispanic vote even assuming Hispanic immigration and birthrates stay at abnormally high levels (And that is a very BIG if.)
19 posted on 10/17/2003 9:57:17 PM PDT by Pubbie (Vote "No" On Recall, "Yes" On Bustamante)
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To: Torie
Yep, the smallest government per experience comes from the GOP controlling the legislature, and the Dems controlling the presidency.

If the Republicans had the brains to point out that Clinton's "accomplishments" were the product of a Republican Congress, they would have made huge gains in 1996. Unfortunately, they decided instead to blast themselves in the feet by supporting that loser Dole.

20 posted on 10/17/2003 9:58:07 PM PDT by supercat (Why is it that the more "gun safety" laws are passed, the less safe my guns seem?)
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