G.O.P. Senate Hopeful Runs on Urban Conservatism

The Hill ^ | September 24, 2003 | Peter Savodnik

[Clintonfatigued]

Jack Ryan tries to convince Democrat-leaning state to try lower U.S. taxes

[Clintonfatigued]

Jack Ryan is an exciting candidate of ideas, deserving of support. Unfortunately, the link went bad. Could someone please find the link to this important story?

[Pubbie]

http://www.hillnews.com/campaign/092403_illinoisgop.aspx

[Dan from Michigan]

Well, I like the guy's name. Reminds me of a book character.

That said, I like what I have read so far on this guy. He seems to walk the walk, which is rare.

[JohnnyZ]

I think he's the strongest candidate in the election, too. He's got charisma. He's the kind of person people WANT to vote for, whether they agree with all of his ideas or not.

Unlike some small-time daddy's boy frickin' tool politician like Dan Hynes.

[dangus]

Yeah, but he already got clobbered running for Gov. The politically illiterate confused him with the reprehensible RINO, Gov. George Ryan, or at least thought they were father-and-son or something like that.

[nospinzone]

I think that was Jim Ryan, the state attorney general, that ran for gov.

[Impy]

Yes, it was Jim.

We have several thousand Ryans. :-p

Jack is rumored to be Rove's choice. Seems like he's our best shot.

[JohnnyZ]

The politically illiterate ...

Ouch. Talk about your all-time great backfires!

I think the 'Ryan' effect has been vastly overstated. Had Jim been named anything else there likely would have been the same result, as the nominee would have been tarnished by his fellow Republican's tenure - guilt by party association - and seen as an establishment figure - which he was - and the Democrats would still have benefitted from the "change" platform since Republicans had had a lock on the governorship for so long.

Those issues don't hold for a US Senate race.

[Clintonfatigued]

Thanks!

[Clintonfatigued]

While Jim Ryan lost the race, I don't think that he was quite clobbered. The 'Rat beat him by 53% to 45%, which is not a landslide. As for Jack Ryan, I hope conservatives and Republicans are watching him with interest, because I think he has real star potential.

[dangus]

O wow, that's right... that was JIM Ryan...

Jim Ryan, Jack Ryan, George Ryan... Zhheeesh!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I think he's the strongest candidate in the election, too. He's got charisma."

---

Dan, what Johnny means by Ryan's "charisma" is that women like to check out his butt. Or did you miss that thread from a few months ago that could have been created by the Log Cabin Republicans? : )

But seriously, I think Jack Ryan can win this thing without having to compromise on his conservative principles. If he can carry the Cook County suburbs and runs well Downstate, he can eke out a victory against Hynes. And if Hull ends up buying the RAT nomination, Ryan will beat him with at least 54%.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think that Jack Ryan has the potential to assemble a coalition of observant Chicago Catholics, blue-collar downstate Protestants, and some African-Americans interested in education and self-empowerment, and combine them with the Republican base in Illinois to form a winning coalition.

[Pubbie]

"and some African-Americans interested in education and self-empowerment"

This is the only thing that worries me about Ryan, is that he's going to try to "Reach out to the Black Community".

The Black community is too rock solid Democrat to try and convert them to the GOP (At least for the immediate future).

Ryan can reach out all he wants to the Black community, but he'll be lucky if he gets 14% of the Black vote.

And most importantly, he doesn't need to get the Black vote.

Every Liberal State in the country is Democrat not because blacks vote heavily Democrat (They do that in every state); but because Republicans do poorly with the White Vote in states like Illinois, California, Connecticut etc.

Ryan needs to work on winning the Cook County suburbs, the Black inner cities are just a complete lost cause for any Republican no matter how steller a candidate he may be.

[Pubbie]

"And if Hull ends up buying the RAT nomination, Ryan will beat him with at least 54%." Ryan: Hull:

[Kuksool]

I believe Republicans should reach out to African-Americans. I would much rather appeal to a Bible-believing African-American than to a pro-abort, white Soccer Mom. Roe vs. Wade would be ancient history if 50% of African-Americans voted for Republican candidates. I know 50% of the black vote is a pipe dream for now. However, Republicans can work to slowly break the RAT monopoly on the black vote by targeting African-Americans in the 18-34 age bracket. These African-Americans were born after the 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed. They never grew up in the Jim Crow Era. As a result, they are more independent in their political leanings. Sure, they vote mostly for Democrats, but RAT talking points are all that they hear. Unlike the older generation which worships the Dems, the younger generation is at least willing to listen to conservative ideas. They may not vote for Republicans immediately, but at least we can introduce them to different points of views. Remember, it took J.C. Watts over 10 years to finally register as a Republican.

[JohnnyZ]

Also, every vote you can pry out of the Democrat base of minorities is a two-vote swing; when targeting the middle, they're liable to swing back and forth regardless, or not vote at all. Democrats need their 90% black vote to win; if it's only 80% they have no chance.

[Clintonfatigued]

By black community, I didn't mean the black political establishment. Clearly, they are blindly in the 'Rats corner. But Ryan has potential with some non-political African-Americans, particularly regular church-goers. After all, he sold his investment banking business and teaches for free at a Chicago parochial school whose enrollment is overwhelmingly black. That ought to get the attention of some voters. Also, I think he has potential appeal to socially conservative Democrats in southern Illinois, as well. Combine that with the Republican base, and you have a Republican majority.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The Black community is too rock solid Democrat to try and convert them to the GOP (At least for the immediate future).

Ryan can reach out all he wants to the Black community, but he'll be lucky if he gets 14% of the Black vote. "

---

First of all, if Jack Ryan gets 14% of the black vote it will make it harder than usual for the RATs to win in Illinois. Second, even if he doesn't get blacks to vote for him, if he reaches out to them it will make it more difficult for the RATs to depict Jack as a racist who is out to get black folks, and that will result in a lower turnout among blacks. Third, can you think of a better way for a conservative to appeal to white suburban social liberals than to reach out to blacks? If there's one thing that is anathema to white liberals it is any semblance of racism (except for affirmative action and other forms of modern racism, which they are too blind to see for what it is), and a Republican that campaigns on issues important to blacks will be rewarded by having soccer moms say "he's not one of those mean conservatives, he's got his heart in the right place." The only problem to my third point is that many of the issues that conservatives espouse that most benefit blacks (e.g., school vouchers, tougher police enforcement, religious values) are not very popular among suburban social liberals. But I think it's a great thing that Jack Ryan is doing by trying to appeal to black voters, and in a close race it could help him get to 50%.