For Senate Democrats, Southern Collapse Delayed, Not Avoided

Last cycle, much of the action in Senate races took place in the Midwest, with competitive races in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Missouri ultimately deciding which party would control the chamber.

This cycle, the South is the scene of many of the significant races, and that’s terrible news for the Democrats, who continue to lose ground in a region that once constituted their party’s bedrock.

In addition to Georgia Sen. Zell Miller (D), who has already announced he won’t seek re-election, at least four other Southern Democrats may well retire: Sens. Fritz Hollings (S.C.), John Edwards (N.C.), Bob Graham (Fla.) and John Breaux (La.).

Hollings and Edwards are certain to face very difficult tests even if they decide to run for re-election. Rep. Jim DeMint (R) and former state Attorney General Charlie Condon (R) are already in the South Carolina contest, and Rep. Richard Burr (R) looks to have established himself as the GOP standard-bearer in the Tar Heel State…

…How bad is the Democrats’ outlook in the South? If the Republicans win Senate seats in the Carolinas and Georgia next year (all quite possible), they’ll hold all of the U.S. Senate seats in seven contiguous Southern states starting in Virginia and stretching around to Mississippi. Only three states of the Confederacy, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas, would have Democratic Senators.

GOP strength in Dixie isn’t anything new, but just a couple of years ago some Democrats were talking about a comeback. After the 2000 elections, Democrats sat in the top state offices of both Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, and party strategists were arguing that the party’s fortunes had bottomed out in the region…

…But 2002 seemed to disprove that assessment, as voters ousted Democratic governors in South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia, as well as a Democratic Senator in Georgia.

Democrats also failed to recapture targeted House seats in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the party couldn’t capitalize on open Republican-held Senate seats in North and South Carolina, Tennessee or Texas.

Even the Virginia gubernatorial victory of Mark Warner (D) in 2001, and the election of Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and re-election of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) last year couldn’t alter the conclusion that Democratic victories in the region were the exception rather than the rule.

…Of course, Democrats are far from conceding defeat in any of this cycle’s Southern contests…

…While Democrats hope to woo back Southern white swing voters by pointing to the Bush administration’s failures with the economy, the region’s cultural conservatism, combined with its deeply held patriotism, gives President Bush and the Republican Party important weapons to use against the Democrats.

And Democratic hopes of holding onto the party’s Senate seats in the region could vanish well before next November if national Democrats embrace the liberal label by nominating Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry or former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for president.

"Sorry...I did not go into enough detail. Easley lost to Warner,"

After getting kneecapped by John Hager, who sold out the party to help Warner. I was truly disappointed in him, because I found Hager rather inspirational.

"Schudler lost to McGreevey,"

Because the NJ RINO establishment did to him what the CA establishment did to Simon. Schundler made his whole career outside the establishment and won and held the Jersey City Mayor's office all without their help or support. The ethically-challenged DiFrancesco was more than happy to hand the keys to Drumthwacket to Jimbo.

"Carlson lost to Locke."

Did he ever stand a chance ? From what I've heard, the WA GOP has atrocious leadership.

"Forrester was beat by a skeleton,"

He wasn't beaten by a skeleton, he was defeated by a RINO Supreme Court with the ethics of Tony Soprano. That was a political fix, period. What's really a shame is that Forrester is now kissing up to the establishment that put that court in place, so I've since lost all respect for him.

"Gorton's anti-environment/native American stands was finally his undertaking."

While I agree that Gorton's going a bit overboard against Native interests, you can't ignore the fortune that Maria dot.bomb spent to defeat him. Nice karmic payback that all the money went "poof", it just breaks your heart.

"Earley was painted to be some Religious-Right Nut."

Actually, he was painted more as being bad for business, which was a bizarre charge to make against a Republican. Warner ran like he WAS a Republican.

"Warner may be a bad governor, but based on hard numbers...I don't think he is as unpopular as Grey Davis or McGreevey."

True. In fact, the most unpopular GOP Governor in the country is Judy Martz of MT (she may actually have a higher disapproval rating than Davis). The thing with Warner is that he isn't particularly effective because of the GOP legislative majority (he might've gotten more accomplished with the previous legislature), and I think he really covets a Senate seat (probably against Allen). As you know, VA Governor's can't succeed themselves, so he has nowhere else to go.

"Forrester had a chance to win the Senate race...but not much of one. From what I could see from polling data...the moderate candidate first name Ann, but can't remember the last...woud a more credible candidate."

Ugh, I think you're thinking of Diane Allen, a State Senator. She is the epitome of a GOP leftist and darling of the RINO establishment, about as worthless as a Jeffords or Chafee if she ever made it to Washington.

"My point in these case (except Virginia that is pretty reliable Republican state-wide), in left-leaning or centrist states like Washington and New Jersey...we may have to focus on moderate candidates and forgo the individuals that can easily tied to the right wing of the party."

But the problem, again, is that those candidates do scarcely little to inspire the electorate to turn out. Why, as a Republican, would I want to aggressively turn out for a GOP candidate that is, with little exception, almost ideologically identical to the incumbent ? It's like what I've been arguing in the CA recall threads, it's merely electing an "R" for the sake of an "R" without any principle behind it. We already tried that business with considerable regularity into the 1960s and the end result was a 2-to-1 'Rat to GOP U.S. Congressional majority. That's why the Goldwaterites rose up to say enough is enough, and they were right to do so. We would never have won the majority again in Congress had we not, and the GOP would be an almost dead party by now, much as it is in places like MA where those "right wingers" as you term them, were told to take a hike. Aside from the Governor, who won essentially as an "independent" (since there is only a GOP on paper there), there's practically nothing else anywhere in the state. It's why I'm convinced that the tack to try an ostensibly "fiscal Conservative (and that often is a dubious claim, as even the 'Rats run with that label, rendering it meaningless) and social Libertarian" tack will fail miserably, because you'll lose voters like me and millions of others who want a definitive choice and not an echo of the opposition.

"Most of the moderates in Washington State would not have a chance to even get out of the primaries. The right-wing will siphon all their money and support before they even get to the starting line."

Again, that's because the Conservative base doesn't care to run faux 'Rats in the general.

"I hoped that Dunn would run against Patty-Cake, but she turned it down."

And, for the record, I wish she had run, too. There also seems to be the problem our party has with inspiring a sense of duty amongst its members that when they are NEEDED to run, that they should. How many seats have we lost in the last decade because these people didn't rise to the occasion ?

"Who do we have left? Metcalf (another retired politican)...?"

He's way too old, anyhow. He already ran for the Senate against Magnuson as long ago as 1968 ! (and again in '74).

"I wish we could convince Steve Largent to run up in Washington State for Governor."

Largent ? That idiot couldn't even win the Governorship of Oklahoma ! We should've run J.C. Watts, instead. That guy lost all respectability after his morally abhorrant comments on Elian. He must've taken a few blows to the head from his football days.

"Locke is not going to even run for a third term...everything he has tried to touch has hit a brick wall...and honestly.. he was almost as good as Ellen Craswell"

Surely you must be joking. Craswell ? C'mon, now...

"(I hate Mormons--even though they are a huge block or Republican voters in Washington State)"

That's a rather bigoted comment to make, I must say.

"and Carlson (nice enough, but no politcal experience and I run a horrible campaign)."

So who does that leave ? But WA's GOP is definitely one of those states where they need to get their act together (mine is another).

Or the Conservative base siphons of votes from demonstrated vote-getters in tight races. They did it in 1996 when Bruce Craswell ran against Rick White (R-WA-1). Jeff Jared ran against Slade Gorton (2000). And now Tomney running against Specter. No, I don't agree with Specter all the time, but I think that Specter can get elected statewide, but if we lose the Senate because of a tight race in PA...I once again blame the right wing for running a great opportunity to get conservative judges nominated and appointed.

I totally agree that it was a huge disappointment that Dunn did not run against Patty-Cake. It has happened so often that I was not completely surprised.

Metcalf is too old...but look at the old men in the Senate. He did run against Magnuson, but Murray is definitely not Magnuson. I had a lot of hope for Norma Smith...I thought she was an up and comer, but a tough primary and little attention got Larsen reelected relatively easily.

Largent has the name recognition to at least make a credible challenge to the Democratic establishment. I agree that the comments about Elian and losing in Oklahoma was disgusting. I totally agree about Watts. He should have run and won, but opted out like Dunn in running. I hope that if Nickels runs, he will run for the Senate.

Craswell was a joke. I did not make the comment about hating Mormons. She did...She made anit-Mormon comments at several campaign rallies I attended and several LDS friends (dedicated Mormons and Party Line Republicans) indicated that they would not support or vote for her. She alienated her base really quickly.. Then her husband cost Rick White his Congressional seat by taking 7% of the vote that would have largely gone to him.

I totally agree that the WA State GOP needs to get their act together. The Country Club Republicans, fiscal conservatives, social liberterians, and the Moral Majority (Religious Right) need to compromise and not immediately dismiss or without support from candidates that do not immediately pass their litmus test.

"Or the Conservative base siphons of votes from demonstrated vote-getters in tight races. They did it in 1996 when Bruce Craswell ran against Rick White (R-WA-1)."

And I disagreed with that. White was centrist, but no flaming RINO.

"Jeff Jared ran against Slade Gorton (2000)."

And aside from some problems on Gorton's end, if anything, he improved while in office.

"And now Tomney running against Specter. No, I don't agree with Specter all the time, but I think that Specter can get elected statewide, but if we lose the Senate because of a tight race in PA...I once again blame the right wing for running a great opportunity to get conservative judges nominated and appointed."

This is where I disagree strongly. Specter has not been reliable on the judges issues, and his odious stance on impeachment was yet another problem. However, there is the overriding problem above all else for Specter, as with the 1980 NY Senate contest with Socialist RINO Jacob Javits, and that is one of age and health. I don't believe the man will live out another term (as Javits didn't either), and Specter is about the oldest man running for reelection in PA history (I did a post on this demonstrating that awhile back). A vote for Specter now will be a vote for the 'Rat hack that Fast Eddie Rendell will appoint to his seat upon his death in the next few years. We need someone younger and more Conservative in this seat.

"Metcalf is too old...but look at the old men in the Senate. He did run against Magnuson, but Murray is definitely not Magnuson."

Yup, a lot of old men, but that's just a bad move with challengers. If Metcalf is a viable option in his mid 70s, why not drag back Gorton or Dan Evans for that matter ?

"Largent has the name recognition to at least make a credible challenge to the Democratic establishment. I agree that the comments about Elian and losing in Oklahoma was disgusting."

Set aside the Elian stuff, he was just a remarkably dreadful campaigner. If he was unable to win OK, I can't see how he'd do particularly well in WA.

"I totally agree about Watts. He should have run and won, but opted out like Dunn in running. I hope that if Nickels runs, he will run for the Senate."

Watts wanted to take a break, and he made that clear some time ago, although I think he stated he already misses serving in Congress (and he's only been out of office not even 6 months !).

"Craswell was a joke. I did not make the comment about hating Mormons. She did...She made anit-Mormon comments at several campaign rallies I attended and several LDS friends (dedicated Mormons and Party Line Republicans) indicated that they would not support or vote for her. She alienated her base really quickly.. Then her husband cost Rick White his Congressional seat by taking 7% of the vote that would have largely gone to him."

My apologies for thinking you made the Mormon comments. I hadn't recalled she said something so incredibly stupid (didn't she know Mormons are about the most reliably Republican bloc voters ?!?). The problem with WA state, as with mine, is that with no runoff, you can snatch a nomination even if you only have something in the 10% range of the vote (or conceivably lower, if a huge number of people flood into a race). If Craswell and Dale Foreman had made it into a runoff, Foreman probably would've defeated her handily. How would you have handicapped a Locke-Foreman contest ?

"I totally agree that the WA State GOP needs to get their act together. The Country Club Republicans, fiscal conservatives, social liberterians, and the Moral Majority (Religious Right) need to compromise and not immediately dismiss or without support from candidates that do not immediately pass their litmus test."

I can agree with that, though I add that I don't want to see someone nominated who eschews a large part of the mainstream Conservative platform (but we certainly want to avoid another Craswell type, who was simply a wrong choice, period).

"I was pretty disappointed by John Hager as well."

The irony was that I was leaning towards supporting him in the primary, but I had no idea how much of a sore loser he was going to turn out to be. I know Mark Warner rewarded him for his apostasy with some appointment.

"Schudler and Simon were tainted goods from the beginning."

I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Schundler was a remarkable individual, turning a 'Rat infested majority non-Caucasian city run by criminals going back for decades into a mini-NYC. He was someone with a proven record, and not some mushy platform, but a solid Conservative one, precisely the kind of person you WANT to move on to higher office. The only people that considered him tainted were the corrupt country-club RINOs who couldn't CONTROL him, otherwise there was no taint to him whatsoever. Same with Simon and his relationship with the RINO establishment of CA. But, unfortunately, the problem in CA all along was Dubya's wanting to exact revenge on Bill Jones. Jones should've been the logical candidate in the first place as a proven vote-getter, but the WH insistence on dragging the horrid Riordan in (who could've conceivably "bought" the nomination out from under Jones) necessitated the entry of Simon. Simon was a great candidate in the primary, but because of the huge amount of time between the March primary and November general, he simply lost focus and couldn't build momentum. As I stated in other threads, I don't believe Riordan would've won, either, as his open insults towards Conservatives and attacking the last great Gov., Deukmejian, would've all but guaranteed a depressed turnout by Republicans.

"Carlson didn't stand a chance, but the conservative base was unwilling to hear or accept that. He had no political experience...he was alienating to moderate/swing voters with his talk show. The Washington State GOP is in shambles. Don Benton and Chris Vance have driven the stake through its heart. If it were not for a few conservative pockets in the state...it would be MA with a complete D Congressional delegation."

But you see the problem here. Nominate a Conservative, and the RINOs refuse to support the candidate, nominate a RINO, and the Conservatives won't turn out. What do you do ? But I still think, in the end, it's a losing proposition going with RINOs, and there are literally hundreds of examples of that. I never got the impression, though, that Locke was particularly endangered in '00, so even if someone more liberal had been nominated by the GOP, the same end result would've occurred.

"Cantwell did flood the airwaves with money from questionable loans. A lot of special interest money targeted him because of some very outlandish votes. Gorton raised a hell of a lot of money too, but he did not really campaign until really late in the game. Cantwell had to compete with Senn in the primary that got the machine up and running really early. She had good organization (although her outlandish personality drove some of her early volunteers away--she threw a stapler at a friend of mine)."

Sounds like Hillary, instead of lamps.

"Also, her commitment to Campaign Finance was really popular and her refusal to take special interest money brought her some additional support. Of course she is now taking special interest money to repay loans colaterallized with nearly worthless stock."

Ah, the hypocrisy of liberals...

"As I have said before...a number of former Congressmen could make a credible race...Rick White, Rod Chandler..."

What is White doing these days ? Chandler seems like he's been out of politics for too long to want to get back in the game. If I recall, I think he lives in the DC area now, but I could be wrong.

"even Randy Tate could make a run for it."

Tate ? Oh, no. As he has served as head of the Christian Coalition, he'd be tainted with the specter of Craswell. He couldn't even hold a marginal House seat beyond a term (but then, Cantwell was a one-term wonder herself). Although, of the three mentioned, White might be the best because of one reason, he was the man who beat Cantwell in '94. I don't need to tell you that it's clear if you can hold down the 'Rat percentages in the "Black hole" of the Puget Sound counties, and deliver the usual GOP performances elsewhere in the state, we win. As a Puget Sound candidate, White would fit the bill.

Interesting thread here. I may be wrong about Schudler, but I didn't see him as a winning candidate. True, he did manage to get elected in a Rat city over and over again. He seemed easy to paint as a pawn of the Religious Right.

Locke was not too terribly in danger in 2000 as he will be in 2004 if he decides to run. He hasn't done anything, but he has managed to infuriate the WEA and the NEA. They have said publically that they will not support him in 2004. Phil Talmadge is already running and is much more of a socialist than Locke. Between those two...I prefer Locke. I hope that our party can get its act together and nominate a mainstream candidate that is not easily painted as a right-wing nut.

Cantwell is a nut...but she votes almost lock-step with Bin Murray.

White would be a great candidate. He was offered the State Republican Party chairmanship before Benton and Vance and he turned it down. He has been approached over and over again, but I think that he is pretty soured on politics. The time commitment destroyed his family and he wants to spend time with his law practice.

What about U.S. Attorney Mackey??? A Bush appointee...strong conservative ideals. Good candidate with strong speaking skills and fairly charismatic.

Chandler??? Not much of a personality...but I think would give Murray a run for her money. WE CAN'T let Murray walk away with this election with a second or third tier candidate. We have to find someone with strong credentials to run against her.

Tate would be tainted, but at least he has some congressional experience and could rally some of the shock troops. That was very impressive about the Cantwell grassroots support...She was able to organize a grassroots campaign across the state through the fundamentalist churches. She made several very stupid comments. I gritted my teeth when I voted for her. I had a hard time defending her when I knocked my precinent on her behalf. I even wrote her a check although the anti-Mormon comments were completely out of line and stupid. And actually wrong. She alienated one of her largest, most consistent block of voters.

What state do you live in?

"Interesting thread here. I may be wrong about Schudler, but I didn't see him as a winning candidate. True, he did manage to get elected in a Rat city over and over again. He seemed easy to paint as a pawn of the Religious Right."

Hey, y'know, if a Conservative Republican who could win in overwhelmingly 'Rat Jersey City was not a viable candidate statewide in a 'Rat-leaning state over a moderate Republican who won in a GOP district not requiring any outreach to 'Rats, I don't know who could be. But it wasn't ideology that did him in, he simply was not part of the good ole boy NJ GOP establishment. Because he wasn't beholden to them and couldn't be controlled by them, they viewed him as an enemy. An interesting sidenote, as you might've heard, the primary for the NJ legislative elections occurred last month, and many were wondering how Schundler would approach them (meaning, would he aggressively get out there and campaign for primary candidates to topple establishment figures ?). He opted to take the tack of NOT opposing the current incumbents, sending a subtle message to them that he could've caused them some trouble after the treatment he received last time, but was interested in "working" with them and would hope they would rally around him next time for making nice this time. The question is whether that will really work. I'm not quite sure I would've taken that approach myself since I believe the NJ GOP is one of the most grotesque operations in the country (far worse than WA state) and needs a serious cleaning-up.

"Locke was not too terribly in danger in 2000 as he will be in 2004 if he decides to run. He hasn't done anything, but he has managed to infuriate the WEA and the NEA. They have said publically that they will not support him in 2004. Phil Talmadge is already running and is much more of a socialist than Locke. Between those two...I prefer Locke. I hope that our party can get its act together and nominate a mainstream candidate that is not easily painted as a right-wing nut."

I would think the danger would be more for Talmadge if he tries running too far to the left. Plus, I'm not sure how powerful the Asian-American vote is in WA, but I'm sure they won't take too kindly to the 'Rats for deposing their lone Governor in the country (even in HI, there's a Haole Gov after 28 years of Asians). If Locke were a tad more Conservative, and if we were that desperate to get the Governorship back for the GOP, we could approach him with the audacious proposal of switching parties since he'd probably be more likely to defeat Talmadge as a Republican than as a 'Rat (the only problem is that Locke wouldn't win a GOP primary !). I'm just throwing this out to gauge your reaction... After all, surely Locke isn't that much more liberal than Dan Evans and might even be further right than the late Congressman and Lieutenant-Governor Joel Prichard.:-)

"White would be a great candidate. He was offered the State Republican Party chairmanship before Benton and Vance and he turned it down. He has been approached over and over again, but I think that he is pretty soured on politics. The time commitment destroyed his family and he wants to spend time with his law practice."

That's unfortunate. The not-so-well-kept secret about politics is that it can often be a family-destroyer (especially at the Congressional and Gubernatorial level). When you're having to spend that much time away from the wife (or husband) and the kids for such a full-time job, it often doesn't turn out well. The one thing that is almost an absolute necessity is that you're going to have to uproot the family to the DC area, which at least guarantees you'll see them daily, but if they choose to stay in their respective state, forget about it. It's awful when situations like what happened to Bob Dole occurred about a decade into his Congressional career (and that was even after he uprooted his first wife and daughter from KS to the DC 'burbs). After too many days of his arriving home at past midnight, the wife issued an ultimatum, either he get out of politics or divorce was inevitable. Of course, we know what happened. Politics is probably a job better suited for a single person with little to no family committments. My own former Senator, Fred Thompson, was a divorcee during his tenure, which seemed to serve him well (though he did have grown children from a previous marriage). Ironically, though, even in that, it was "family" that pushed him to decide to retire short of the 12 years minimum he was going to serve. The untimely death of his daughter due to drug overdose pushed him over the edge. :-(

"What about U.S. Attorney Mackey??? A Bush appointee...strong conservative ideals. Good candidate with strong speaking skills and fairly charismatic."

Perhaps, but I don't know enough about him. Is he well known in the state ? Is he independently wealthy ?

"Chandler??? Not much of a personality...but I think would give Murray a run for her money. WE CAN'T let Murray walk away with this election with a second or third tier candidate. We have to find someone with strong credentials to run against her."

I absolutely agree. I just doubt Chandler will run again. I think Chandler might've been counting on running against the tainted Brock Adams in '92, whom he surely would've defeated, but the WA 'Rats have always been smart enough up there to usher out sure-losers (Adams, Lowry in '96) before the general (albeit trying to sneak in Lowry again for that lower office last time was not smart).

"Tate would be tainted, but at least he has some congressional experience and could rally some of the shock troops."

My concern is that he's TOO tainted. Is he, like Chandler, still in WA state ? Had he been able to hold the Tacoma seat, he'd have been a more viable candidate in my opinion.

"That was very impressive about the Cantwell grassroots support...She was able to organize a grassroots campaign across the state through the fundamentalist churches. She made several very stupid comments. I gritted my teeth when I voted for her. I had a hard time defending her when I knocked my precinent on her behalf. I even wrote her a check although the anti-Mormon comments were completely out of line and stupid. And actually wrong. She alienated one of her largest, most consistent block of voters."

You meant Craswell, not Cantwell, didn't you ? ;-) I doubt Maria dot.bomb has ever set foot in a fundamentalist church in her life (unless it was converted into an internet company in the halcyon days of the mid-to-late '90s). :-P

"What state do you live in?"

Tennessee, formerly the political epicenter of the country. A state that can be a bit backwards, largely due to the way the 'Rats set it up, but a few times, such as on election night 2000, we rise to the occasion and save the country... :-)

"It is unfortunate that there are so many state Republican organizations that are in shambles."

Mine is one, too, I might add. :-(

"You are right that NJ's is really bad...so is Illonis. I am surprised that they can't recruit a candidate to replace Fitzgerald. That is really too bad."

And here is the big problem, we shouldn't be having to find a replacement for Fitz. He's the best Senator that state has had since Dirksen (not counting the ultra-RINO anti-Semite Chuck Percy, who was so bad I would've voted for his '84 opponent and vanquisher, Paul Simon. Of course, in '84, I was still a very leftist youth 'Rat (Jesse Jackson for Prez supporter). Fitz is leaving because the RINO establishment in the state has treated him like garbage from the get-go. Like Bret Schundler, he beat the annointed candidate, a bored RINO named Loleta Didrickson (the state Comptroller), and they were almost successful in sabotaging him before the general with Carol Moseley-Braun (it was practically a repeat of '96 when the establishment annointed an even more bored RINO (there's a lot bored RINOs in IL) with the Lieutenant-Governor, Bob Kustra (who didn't even WANT to run for Senator, doing it as a favor), and he lost to a hard-charging Al Salvi. Salvi was heavily sabotaged as a pro-gun nut by the party and the media and polished off by Dick Durbin in the general and then Kustra promptly quit his job as Lt Gov). Fitz has been "kneecapped" by thugs like Ray LaHood because he has been attempting, unapologetically so, to clean up the profound level of corruption plaguing BOTH parties in IL, and getting one of the best U.S. Attorneys in the nation appointed there. They made it plain they were going to sabotage his chances (and hence not get too misty if he were to make it out of the primary and lose to any 'Rat). This is the kind of garbage that needs to be cleaned out of ALL state parties. Fitz is precisely the kind of person we ought to be rallying around since he knows that our party isn't worth a pile of manure if corruption isn't weeded out.

"Washington's is absolutely pathetic. We have a great history of running good candidates. Less than ten years ago (1994), we controlled six of the nine Congressional Seats. Now we control three...and Dunn's will probably switch if she leaves the House. Ds are making inroads into the Eastside of King County."

It was actually 7 out of 9 (only Baghdad Jim and Lil' Normie survived the onslaught) after the '94 elections. We should at least control 5 (WA-1, 2, 4, 5, & 8) now. I'm a bit more optimistic we'll hold Dunn's seat when she retires, but it seems to be trending more towards the dimensions of the 1st. Did you know we actually held the now-Communist 7th (and I call it that now with the extremist left influence there, making the district almost indistiguishable from the 2 CA SF Bay seats that send nuts like Pelosi and Barbara Lee to DC) as recently as 1977-79 ? When Brock Adams was made a Carter Cabinet member, a Republican won the special, but it went to Mike Lowry in '78 and everything went downhill from there...

"You are right about Locke. I don't think that the Asian-American community is that organized to make a concentrated effort to oppose his removal from office. Talmadge will run to the left and the pinkos from Capitol Hill, Queen Anne, Fremont, and the University District to vote for him multiple times. There is a possiblity that the Republicans could get him to switch parties...Not very likely as he seems to be a dedicated party man."

Yeah, though it would be interesting to see it happen. At the very least, if he loses renomination, he could switch after the primary and give a nice big thumb in the eye to the 'Rats. You'd be surprised how fast they get with the program when they get unceremoniously dumped (witness former Congressman Marty Martinez of CA, who was a 20% Conservative as a 'Rat (but still not leftist enough for the party since he (gasp !) dared vote against partial-birth abortion) lost renomination after 27 years in Congress and switched parties, voting a near-perfect Conservative record afterwards). Locke could help us take the Governorship, assuming we don't get a Craswellian loser or someone uninspiring like the hapless one-termer John Spellman, the last GOP Governor.

"As for Dan Evans and Joel Prichard. Both really nice men. I met both of them...in fact, Joel's daughter Peggy Olsen-Pirchard is running for a non-partisan city council seat in Edmonds (Snohomish County). She has a good chance of unseating the incumbent."

Is she as liberal as dad ?

Hey, in all this discussion, I think we never talked about Linda Smith. I had high hopes for her as a candidate in '96 against Osama Patty, but this was an example of someone who was sabotaged on the national level because of her positions on campaign finance reform and free trade. I could appreciate her devotion to the issue, despite my disagreeing with her (in my opinion, the problem is that there is too LITTLE money in politics and donation limits ought be removed entirely - as long as they are documented thoroughly). She was a far more classy individual than one often sees in politics these days, and her successor in the 3rd surely leaves a lot to be desired.

"Good talking to you."

You too. :-)

I think your state has a better chance of electing an R than mine...but we are not as bad as California's either. I don't understand the state that can elect Reagan, can be so leftist. Washington has been trending left for some time. Even during our Republican years...we had a lot of liberal Rs in office. IL is really ILL. I don't understand why they can't get their act together either. Indiana is right next door and they tend to be a very Republican state. I understand that they have the Chicago mafia running half the state, but what about the other half.
You are right...I forgot about Linda Smith's district. That was a fluke in my mind...although I don't understand an area that is so depressed economically that relies so heavily on timber votes so regularly for the Ds..the party that wants to strip away their only really remaining source of income. True that they are diversifying a bit more, but not too much. Land is still fairly affordable down in South Western Washington....the problem is that there is not a lot of white collar jobs down there.
McDermott is dubbed accordingly as the "Congressman for Life". He is safe in there until he dies or choses to retire. Dicks...although a D is at least tolerable...so is Adam Smith (most of the time). They are both pro-military (okay they have to be because their districts contain huge military populations). Larsen ...needs to go. The First (my district) is changing a lot. It used to be reliably Republican when Miller was in there...but Inslee has a lock on it. We can't seem to recruit good solid candidates that can take him on. My friend Joe Marine is wonderful, but was not ready for national politics. He got slaughtered in the general election during a pretty good year for the Repbublicans. Hopefully, we can recruit a good candidate this next go around a raise a lot of money. That was Joe's issue that he was not ready for a national election and did not have the money, organizations, footsoldiers, and national support to unseat Inslee. Redistricting made the district a little more favorable...but not a lot.
John Spellman was horrible and was a real blight on our party. I hoped that Eikenberry would have won as I saw him a lot like an up-and-coming Gorton without the anti-Indian baggage. I would love to see what he is up to, but he has been out of the game for over ten years...I don't see a lot of hope.
That would be interesting to see him switch parties...but once again...I don't see it happening. He has sided with the Republicans on a couple of key votes that have prevented our tax burden from being raised even more than they have...but he is a tax and spend liberal to the core. I hope that Inslee will run for Governor...at least he is better fiscally than Norm "tax to the max" Sims, or Phil Talmadge.
Linda Smith was a good hope but she did not get the national or local support she needed and even deserved. She was polarizing and abrupt, but she really could have won. She ekked out wins down in her Congressional District by very narrow margins...She was a proven vote getter...but she has disappeared off the radar screen. I wonder if she even lives in the state any more. She really threw some tantrums on the House Floor and alienated a lot of voters. I supported Bayley in that primary as he is a family friend, but I really felt that he was a fossil without a prayer. I was surprised that Linda couldn't take out Patty. She has at least 100 IQ points on her and I am being generous to Patty. I live near Shoreline (where she was a School Board Member)...what an idiot!!!!

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