Posted on 05/28/2003 10:13:16 PM PDT by LdSentinal
The first time Claire McCaskill thought about running for governor might have been in eighth grade.
Her English teacher told her she had a gift -- not so much for conjugating verbs -- but for speaking and "explaining herself."
"It wouldn't surprise me if you were the first woman governor," McCaskill said she was told.
Thirty-five years later, after a long, methodical climb that has taken her from law school to the General Assembly, a seat on the Jackson County Legislature, election as the county's first woman prosecutor and now her second term as state auditor, Claire Conner McCaskill must make a monumental political call.
Should she challenge Bob Holden, the sitting governor from her own Democratic Party, in next year's primary?
The arguments cut both ways. The pro-McCaskill crowd insists that Holden is a lackluster leader whose tenure during three years of abysmal budget woes have left him so wounded that a second term is unlikely.
"I doubt that he can make a recovery," said Doug Harpool, a Springfield lawyer who backs McCaskill.
The opposing argument is that the governor has done a noble, even courageous, job guiding the state during turbulent times. He has improved as a leader, they say, standing up forcefully to Republicans who now control the General Assembly.
"I would say to Claire that this is not your time," said Woody Overton, a longtime Kansas City Democratic activist. "This is Bob Holden's time. He's won the governorship. We need to be supportive of the governor."
"The governor has managed the state through very difficult times," said Roy Temple, a Holden political adviser. "The other factor is Claire is a virtually untested political commodity at the level we're talking about."
A McCaskill candidacy, insiders say, could rip apart the Democratic Party, making it impossible to defeat Matt Blunt, the likely Republican nominee. But McCaskill forces insist that a primary challenge can be overcome and even elevate the party nominee past the Republican.
Activists on both sides agree that a lot of Democrats are holding their breath over McCaskill's decision, which could come this summer or fall.
"There's a lot riding on this," said Ken Warren, a St. Louis University political scientist.
"Can you imagine how dirty this would be?" Warren said. "It'll be extremely dirty because first of all it's a dirty move to challenge the sitting governor of your own party."
`Democracy in action'
McCaskill, 49, shrugs off the notion that much is riding on her decision.
"Our two-party system was designed for us to disagree and have different opinions...and ultimately for everyone to vote," she said. "Democracy in action is the strongest democracy."
McCaskill's exposure to politics began at an early age.
In 1960, when she was 7 and living in the bedrock Republican town of Lebanon in south central Missouri, her parents sent her out for Halloween with instructions to say, "Trick or treat, vote for JFK."
Her father was a mill worker who later went into the insurance business and rose to serve as insurance commissioner under Gov. Warren Hearnes.
Her mother, Betty McCaskill, became the first woman elected to the Columbia City Council in 1968. A few years later, after she and her husband had moved to the Springfield area, she lost a race for state representative. Her opponent was Leroy Blunt, grandfather of Matt Blunt.
McCaskill says she didn't begin zeroing in on the governorship until she won the auditor's job, her first statewide office, in 1998.
"I assumed then that my run could occur in '08," she said.
Then Holden got off to a rocky start as governor: A $1 million inauguration gala that ran him into debt. An inaugural session as governor in which Republicans refused to pass Holden's top priority -- a major highway program.
And then, in Holden's second year, Republicans seized control of the House for the first time in half a century, giving them total control of the General Assembly.
Holden was tagged as an uninspiring leader. The phrase "OTB" began circulating for "One-Term Bob."
Convinced that Holden might be damaged goods, some Democrats began looking at other options. McCaskill, coming off her re-election win in 2002, was a logical choice.
In recent months she has hired a pollster, a fund-raiser and the same Washington-based media firm that handled Kathleen Sebelius' successful race for Kansas governor last year.
But she says she's in no rush to make a decision.
"It's really important that I get as much input as I possibly can," she said.
Of a potential campaign against a sitting governor, McCaskill says only that she would present a positive message for the future.
Uncharacteristically, she refused to comment on the likelihood of her candidacy. Many Democrats are convinced that she already is running. But others remain unsure.
"I haven't seen anything yet that proves to me that she's in," said GOP strategist John Hancock.
Hancock acknowledges that Republicans would prefer to run against the sitting governor. "It would be hard to find candidates with worse numbers than Bob Holden," he said.
No new numbers
No media polls have been taken to measure a Holden-McCaskill match-up. Zogby International checked Holden's standing in February and determined that 45 percent of voters viewed him favorably while 39 percent saw him unfavorably.
The same survey showed 36 percent said the state was going the right direction.
Asked why she wouldn't wait four years, McCaskill said, "I can only tell you what people are saying to me, and that is Missouri can't wait four years."
McCaskill's prospects are iffy, pundits say. She'd be taking on an incumbent who can win favor through a myriad of powers -- appointments, appropriations, vetoes.
While Kansas City area voters know her, she is unfamiliar to much of the rest of the state.
"I would say she's not very well-known," said George Connor, a political scientist at Southwest Missouri State University.
And some theorize that Holden has improved his status recently -- as the last Democratic bastion against the Republican tide. That reputation was enhanced last week when Holden vetoed a series of spending bills, setting up what could be a dramatic confrontation in a special session.
Hancock said Holden was playing politics with the budget. "This is inherently a base message and the kind of message one has to run when one has to ward off opposition in one's party," he said.
Holden says the GOP priorities outlined in the budget do not match his values and the values of most Missourians.
How the budget drama plays out could have a significant influence on McCaskill's decision, her backers say.
"I'm hoping there isn't a primary," said Kansas City political consultant Jim Bergfalk. "It's costly. It's divisive. And very seldom does anybody come out of it a winner."
Such a fight also could possibly force the eventual Democratic nominee to essentially start from scratch in fund raising for the general election.
Even some of McCaskill's staunchest supporters say privately that they hope she doesn't run, but she isn't buying it. Those are insiders talking, she said. Rank-and-file Missourians feel differently.
"I don't think that this is some kind of fork in the road for party politics in this state," McCaskill said. "Frankly, it's a fork in the road for the state of Missouri."
(5/26/2003)
- By Steve Kraske, The Kansas City Star
Mmmmm . . . Dir-ty.
Hancock acknowledges that Republicans would prefer to run against the sitting governor. "It would be hard to find candidates with worse numbers than Bob Holden," he said.
Mmmmm . . . Martz . . . Mmmmm . . . Gray Davis . . .
Said the love child of Homer Simpson and Dr. Evil
If you were talking about a GOP primary, I'd be much more inclined to agree with that assessment. But the Dems are quite good at rallying 'round the flag. Can't let dem evil Pubs kill children and old folks!!
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