Courtney (D) gaining on Simmons [CT-02]

WTNH ^ | 11/3/02 | N/A

[BlackRazor]

Courtney gaining on Simmons

(Storrs-AP, Nov. 3, 2002 6:50 PM) _ A new University of Connecticut poll shows that Rob Simmons' lead over Joe Courtney in the Second Congressional District is down to five percentage points.

UConn's Center for Survey Research and Analysis says Simmons -- the incumbent Republican -- holds a 46 percent to 41 percent lead among likely voters over Courtney, the Democratic challenger. Thirteen percent of voters are undecided. Simmons' five-point lead is equal to the poll's margin of error.

Simmons held a 22-point lead two months ago. Back then, Simmons led 46 percent to 24 percent, while 28 percent of likely voters were undecided. Last week, Simmons' lead was ten points.

Poll director Ken Dautrich says voters are beginning to think about the economy while putting the possible war with Iraq on the back burner. Dautrich says when that happens, Democrats benefit.

The new poll surveyed 376 likely voters.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

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[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, this isn't really a GOP district, though Simmons won against an entrenched Dem incumbent by a slim margin, this probably will be a 53-52 to 47%-48% race (assuming there is truly momentum from the Dem.). Noteworthy when the GOP exits this election with a 3-2 majority from CT that this will be the first time the state has had a majority GOP delegation since the 1957-58 Congress (when it held all 6 seats, only to lose all 6 in the '58 elections).

[KQQL]

he will win by 5%

[nutmeg]

Depressing news ping... :-(

C'mon Rob Simmons!

If anyone would like to be removed from my CT ping list, please FReepmail me and it will be done ASAP.

[Torie]

Unless you are Connie Morella, when you represent a Dem district, it is nice to get a pad early on. Then you can afford some erosion as the Dems come home. That particularly obtains for a freshman. After he gets some seniority, life will be a bit easier. Simmons represents the most pro Gore district in the land for an incumbent Pubbie after Morella. Did you know that factlet John?

[Dan from Michigan]

Nothing is easy in Connecticutt.

BTW - I thought Shay's district was more Gored than Simmons.

[Torie]

Here are the numbers in the redrawn distrits:

	     Gore Margin
Morella-MD	35.00%
Simmons-CT	15.40%
Quinn-NY	14.08%
Castle-Del	13.70%
LoBiondo-NJ	11.80%
Leach-Iowa	11.10%
Shays-CT	10.30%

[jwalsh07]

Did you know that factlet John?

I live it Torie. What is misunderstood is that Simmons gets support from the Ledyard democrats because of the Indian situation and that this area has an unusually large number of veterans who will stick with Simmons and a lot of pro gun democrats who will also back the pro gun horse.

Simmons should win by a few points but his support this time around is not as intense from the grassroots as it was last time.

[MrNeutron1962]

Yes, Simmons seems to be on the side of the anti-casino crowd. As opposed to ol' sam the sham, who was in bed with the psudo-indians in Ledyard.

I think he is going to pull it off!

[VRWC_minion]

The difference is about what I would expect for the district. It is not exactly a stronghold for either party. My 7th grade son said his school went for Simons but it was close. Courtney has done a lot of advertising and its paying off in terms of getting his name out because he had no name recognition, especially in an area that has been redrawn.

The large undecided has to be an indication of the problem that many are not even sure what district they are in as well as the disaster that looms for the rats governor race.

Simons has really good chance because he is incumbent, he will get some coat tail effect from Roland and he is still maintaining a lead despite Courtneys attack ads.

[VRWC_minion]

Forgot the last caveat. Last election Rhode Island rats shipped all sorts of illegal voters to CT to register and vote at town halls claiming they just moved here. Simmons needs enough cushion to cover that and other illegal ballot stuffing.

[Jim Scott]

Simmons will pull it out. Joe Courtney is not an attractive candidate in more than one way while Simmons comes across as sincere and reasonable which should help with the 'undecided' vote. John Rowland's popularity in this election won't hurt, either. For any Republican to win a major office in CT without going totally RINO, a la Nancy Johnson, is a real achievement.

[ModernDayCato]

Jim,

What you're trying so nicely to say is that Courtney is FRIGHTENING looking (looks sorta like Satan...actually looked disturbing in his TV commercial).

Simmons is a good guy...he looks and acts the part. And Simmons is the most conservative member of the delegation, which ain't saying much.

My rep, Nancy Johnson, said this:
"I'm the oldest member of Congress, and I fought to keep Social Security from being privatized." At least she's not Jim Maloney, and at least I didn't get Shays in the redistricting.

[Jim Scott]

My rep, Nancy Johnson, said this: "I'm the oldest member of Congress, and I fought to keep Social Security from being privatized." At least she's not Jim Maloney, and at least I didn't get Shays in the redistricting.

Don't get me started on Nancy Johnson! She's my congresswoman, too.

Nancy Johnson is probably far more liberal than Jim Maloney. She's as much a Republican as Lowell Weicker was. Calling Johnson a RINO gives her too much credit. She votes with the Republicans just enough to keep the party endorsement. Useless. I hope she loses and I won't vote for her again.

[ModernDayCato]

Here's one for you (I was in the room when she said it) -- THIS IS HER LAST TIME AROUND THE BLOCK. And thank God. One thing I will give her that Maloney doesn't have -- she honestly thinks she does the right thing for the sake of doing the right thing, for which she deserves credit.

She also struck me as a very humble person, which is way more than that fat tub of lard can say. But you're right -- she is SUB-RINO.