The difference is about what I would expect for the district. It is not exactly a stronghold for either party. My 7th grade son said his school went for Simons but it was close. Courtney has done a lot of advertising and its paying off in terms of getting his name out because he had no name recognition, especially in an area that has been redrawn.
The large undecided has to be an indication of the problem that many are not even sure what district they are in as well as the disaster that looms for the rats governor race.
Simons has really good chance because he is incumbent, he will get some coat tail effect from Roland and he is still maintaining a lead despite Courtneys attack ads.
Forgot the last caveat. Last election Rhode Island rats shipped all sorts of illegal voters to CT to register and vote at town halls claiming they just moved here. Simmons needs enough cushion to cover that and other illegal ballot stuffing.