Posted on 10/29/2002 5:05:05 AM PST by BlackRazor
Moore and Taff locked in close race, poll shows
By JIM SULLINGER
The Kansas City Star
Adam Taff and Dennis Moore, the two major-party candidates fighting for Moore's 3rd District seat in the U.S. House, tell audiences that next Tuesday's election will be close.
They aren't just saying that to keep their volunteers working hard.
A telephone poll of 602 registered voters taken over three days at the end of last week by The Kansas City Star found Moore, a Democrat, three percentage points ahead of Taff, a Republican.
That lead is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points, which means the race statistically is even.
"It's an absolute dead heat," said Fred Logan Jr., a veteran of area GOP politics. "It shows that Taff is within striking distance of beating Moore."
It also shows that most voters know for whom they are going to vote. Only 7 percent of those polled were undecided.
In an election poll by The Star two years ago, Moore had a two percentage-point lead over his challenger, Phill Kline of Shawnee, with 19 percent undecided. That poll was taken about three weeks before the election.
When all the votes were counted on Election Day, Moore received 50 percent, compared with 47 percent for Kline and 3 percent for the Libertarian Party candidate.
Logan said the key to victory next Tuesday may rest on the side that does the best job getting supporters to the polls.
"Whoever can energize his voters in the last week will win the race," Logan said.
That thought has not been lost on the campaigns as they move into high gear this week.
The 3rd District is made up of Johnson and Wyandotte counties and parts of Douglas County.
A major advance vote effort is being waged in Wyandotte County, a traditionally Democratic stronghold that has brought victory to Moore in two previous elections.
Wyandotte County election officials said they had mailed out twice as many advance ballot applications as they did two years ago.
In Johnson County, both parties mailed advance ballot applications to potential voters. Two years ago, election officials said that 84,000 advance ballots were cast in a presidential election year and that 50 percent of those were by mail.
Connie Schmidt, election commissioner, said that her office had received more than 50,000 requests for advance ballots and that 90 percent were for mail ballots.
"It tells me that both parties are pushing," Schmidt said.
Jack Martin, a Moore campaign spokesman, said the congressman had a large get-out-the-vote effort but could not reveal any details. Voters also can look for a lot of commercials on television this week.
"There will be a big push," Martin said. "Just as he's done before, Dennis Moore is putting together a coalition of Republicans, Democrats and independents. They support him because he votes for good ideas, not party politics."
Taff said his internal polling showed him with a slight lead over Moore.
"We continue to believe we've worked hard to put ourselves in a position to win this race," he said, adding that the final week of a campaign is all about inertia and momentum.
"These (poll) numbers should energize a lot of people that have been wondering whether this race can be won," he said. "We're very excited. It's our race to win."
Taff said he was increasing his television advertising and working harder than ever this week. Moore also will have a large television presence.
Other poll results:
• In predominately Republican Johnson County, Taff was favored by almost 50 percent of voters; Moore polled almost 42 percent. Moore has never won Johnson County in his two previous races but needs to do well there.
• In predominately Democratic Wyandotte County, Moore is the clear favorite, winning almost 63 percent of the voters polled compared with 29 percent for Taff.
• Republican voters in the 3rd District prefer Taff 78.2 percent to 14.2 percent for Moore. Democrats prefer Moore 92 percent to 4 percent for Taff. Independent voters, however, clearly favor Moore almost 52 percent to 34 percent for Taff.
• Taff and Moore were dead even among men who were surveyed, but more women supported Moore than Taff.
• Of those respondents favoring Moore, 32.1 percent said economic conditions were the most important issue. For Taff supporters, terrorism and a possible war with Iraq were more important.
• Of those respondents favoring Moore, 22.1 percent said the United States was winning the war on terrorism. For Taff supporters, 60.9 said the United States was winning.
Mary Nickerson of Overland Park, an unaffiliated voter, said she was voting for Moore and considered Taff too much of an unknown.
"I've always liked him (Moore)," she said. "I like the way he's handled himself. I tend to be a little more liberal than conservative."
Danny Siglar of Olathe, a registered Republican, said that he was voting for Taff and that the abortion issue was critical for him.
"I'm kind of a religious fellow," Siglar said, saying that Taff would back more restrictions on abortion than Moore would.
The Star's marketing research department conducted the poll in conjunction with Market Research Institute.
The poll has a confidence level of 95 percent. That means that if this study were repeated under the same circumstances 100 times, the results for each question would not vary by more than 3.99 percentage points -- the margin of error -- in 95 of the 100 times the study was conducted.
This race has been flying under the radar all cycle. However, based on press reports, I had a feeling Taff was running a good campaign. This poll seems to confirm it.
If you want on or off my poll ping list,let me know!
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