Posted on 10/24/2002 5:30:39 AM PDT by BlackRazor
In 5th, first race in a long time
Thursday, October 24, 2002
By SHANNON D. HARRINGTON
Staff Writer
For the first time in more than two decades, the election in northern New Jersey's Republican-dominated 5th Congressional District is a horse race.
But competitive though the contest may be compared with past ones, Republican state Assemblyman Scott Garrett appears to have a clear edge over Democrat Anne Sumers in his bid to succeed 11-term GOP Rep. Marge S. Roukema.
The Record Poll this week found the conservative Sussex County lawmaker was ahead of the Republican-turned-Democrat Sumers, 49 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.
"Garrett is in the driver's seat, and it's probably his race to lose," pollster Del Ali of Rockville, Md.-based Research 2000, said of the poll conducted Monday and Tuesday of 600 likely voters in the far-flung congressional district.
Garrett campaign officials said their polls show an even bigger lead, but they hailed the results, which gave Garrett solid numbers on key issues such as the U.S. economy and the war against terrorism.
"I think the poll confirms that Scott is leading and he's clearly on the road to victory," said Garrett's campaign manager, Evan Kozlow. "[Sumers'] strategy of trying to attract Republican voters has failed."
The Sumers camp said they believe the race is tighter than the numbers reflect. However, they saw opportunity in the poll findings.
"It's a close race," said Sumers campaign manager Jeffrey Garcia, noting that 16 percent of the Democrats polled remained undecided and that 42 percent of everyone polled had not yet formed an opinion of her.
Those voters, he said, "will be making their decisions in the next two weeks, and we'll do very well. Anne's doing a heck of a job on the issues when it comes to education, when it comes to gun control. She will speak to these voters on the issues that count."
The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points for each number that is based upon the total sample, used randomly generated phone numbers in exchanges chosen to ensure an accurate reflection of the 5th District - which stretches across the northern edge of New Jersey, from the leafy suburbs of northern Bergen County to the rural farming villages of Warren County.
The district has been a key venue in the battle for control of the House of Representatives, where Democrats need to pick up six seats to gain control.
Roukema won easily
The November elections were always a shoo-in for Roukema, whose fiscally conservative, socially moderate views appealed to northern Bergen County's large base of moderate voters. Since 1990, her smallest margin of victory has been 31 percentage points.
But after contentious primary battles between Garrett and Roukema in 1998 and 2000, Democrats saw an opportunity this year when Roukema announced her retirement, Garrett won the nomination, and Sumers - a Roukema supporter and fund-raiser - changed parties to run for the seat.
Sumers has tried to keep voters' attention on Garrett's conservative record in the state Assembly - including his bills that would have made it easier to carry handguns and his calls for the elimination of the federal Department of Education - while trying to paint herself as Roukema's ideological twin.
Garrett, meanwhile, has changed or softened some of his positions while trying to paint Sumers as too liberal and focusing on the fact that she didn't vote in 13 straight school board elections in her hometown of Upper Saddle River.
Despite Sumers' attempts to attract moderate Republicans into her camp, however, the poll showed that only 4 percent of likely Republican voters had sided with her.
"It looks like the Republicans have come home in this race," said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington political analyst who in recent weeks has shifted the race from "leans Republican" to "toss-up/tilts Republican," and now is inclined to put it back in the "leans Republican" column.
Sumers also was losing among unaffiliated or independent voters by double digits, 52 percent to 42 percent, with scant room for significant gains. Only 6 percent of those voters were undecided.
"She has to become competitive with the independent and unaffiliated voters in this race," Ali said. "The Republicans just are not going to vote for her right now."
Garcia said Democratic poll results show a much tighter race among unaffiliated voters.
Many have no opinion
In assessing whether voters have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates, the poll found that no large numbers of likely voters have soured to either candidate, though 36 percent still had not formed an opinion of Garrett while 42 percent had no opinion of Sumers.
Garrett's push to sell himself as a "mainstream Republican" seemed to have some impact, with 26 percent of those polled labeling him as moderate. Nearly half of the likely voters considered him either conservative or very conservative. No one characterized him as liberal.
Forty-one percent of those polled considered Sumers moderate and 28 percent considered her either liberal or very liberal. Two percent said she was conservative.
On specific issues, a plurality of those polled - 45 percent - said Garrett would do a better job on the economy. An even bigger number - 54 percent — said he would do a better job in the fight against terrorism.
Sumers, however, outpolled Garrett on education - one of the most contentious issues of the campaign. Nearly half those polled, or 47 percent, said Sumers would do a better job on educational issues, compared with 43 percent who favored Garrett.
Sumers has hammered Garrett on his education record in the state Assembly, noting that he voted against the state's $8.6 billion school construction financing program, and for his previous calls to abolish the federal Education Department.
Sumers attacked
Despite that, Ali said Garrett - who has called Sumers hypocritical for not voting in her hometown school board elections - fared relatively well in the education category.
"When you compare a Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate on education, the Democratic candidate is usually up double figures," he said.
One wild card remaining in the race is Roukema, who has declined to endorse either candidate.
If Roukema were to endorse someone, 36 percent of those polled said they would be more likely to vote for that candidate. Twenty-five percent said they would be less likely. And 39 percent said Roukema's endorsement would have no impact at all on their decision.
"She certainly has some clout and influence," Ali said of Roukema.
Roukema, through a spokesman, declined to comment.
Political observers say they expect Roukema to remain neutral. She has never hidden her distaste for Garrett. But they say she is too loyal to the GOP to back a Democrat as one of the last things she does while in office.
Still, Ali questioned whether Roukema's inaction could sway voters.
"By her sitting out, is it viewed as almost a silent endorsement for Sumers?" Ali said. "Or is it viewed by those who have really followed politics in that district as animosity between Roukema and Garrett?"
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Bump
Proving, once again, the moron factor in NJ politics. Sumers is a radical Socialist with anti-American Cynthia McKinney tendencies. That two percent must be from the Communists in the 5th, or the extra-chromosomer Dems (one in the same). If Roukema endorses her, she deserves to have her apostastic a$$ summarily tossed out of the party.
Sumers - a Roukema supporter and fund-raiser - changed parties to run for the seat… One wild card remaining in the race is Roukema, who has declined to endorse either candidate.
This is the way liberal Republicans pay back conservative Republicans who bite their tongue and support them FOR YEARS!
Remember that next time they put a Roukema or a Whitman in your face.
Go Garrett Go! And Roukema, drop dead already.
Garrett will win by 10% or more. That's what the liberal media calls a tight race when their guy's losing.
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