Posted on 10/22/2002 6:42:46 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Negative ads boost Renzi lead
BY GARY GHIOTO
Sun Staff Reporter
10/22/2002
Barely a month after being endorsed by President Bush and launching an ad campaign describing his opponent as a tax deadbeat, liar and corporate raider, Republican Rick Renzi is surging ahead in the race for the 1st Congressional District seat, says a poll released Monday.
The Grand Canyon State Poll shows Renzi leading 48 percent to 36 percent among likely voters, with previously undecided voters lining up behind him.
The poll shows that a dual strategy attacking Cordova's business record and personal integrity, combined with ads introducing Renzi's position on issues such as education to district voters, is turning the tide, said Fred Solop, director of Northern Arizona University's Social Research Laboratory.
"It tells us that there is a significant lead by Rick Renzi in this congressional election and we have to go beyond the sampling error to explain that. There is something real taking place in the congressional district ... undecideds are tending to decide and they are tending to decide toward Renzi rather than toward Cordova.
Republicans are also showing a probable significant voter turnout advantage, despite a Democratic edge in voter registration in the district, which covers rural areas of the state.
"The most significant thing we're seeing in the data is that Democrats are dropping out of the race, despite their registration advantage," said Solop.
The NAU political scientist said discussions with voters reveal that negative campaign ads are hurting Cordova and discouraging Democrats from getting "excited" about the race.
"There's negative campaigning taking place against their candidate and it's raising questions among Democrats as to whether or not they should support George Cordova. We're finding that a lot of Democrats say they are not going to come out and vote on Election Day," said Solop.
Solop said the poll shows that voters are listening to the negative campaign message churned out by Renzi concerning Cordova's business record. Cordova's negatives jumped as the Renzi televison ad campaign got into full swing, he said.
But negative campaign tactics aren't necessarily directed at an opponent, Solop said.
"We know nationally that negative campaigning doesn't tend to sway voters from supporting one candidate or supporting another candidate, it tends to depress turnout," he said.
After weeks of running in a dead heat, the districtwide poll results have Renzi supporters predicting victory Nov. 5 and Democrats crying foul over negative advertising they say is turning off district voters.
"The people of Arizona's 1st District are embracing Rick's candidacy and rejecting George Cordova. Clearly momentum is with this campaign," said Jimmy Jayne, Renzi's new campaign director.
If Renzi's 12-point poll lead and bulging campaign coffers have Democratic activists worried, they didn't show it Monday.
"You know, we cannot outspend Rick Renzi, so we are going to out-hustle him," said Peggy Toomey, chair of the Coconino County Democratic Party. "We're going to knock on every door. We're going to call every voter and we're going to make sure our message gets through."
Renzi has benefited from a bigger campaign fund, resulting in a more television commercials and newspaper advertising, said Solop. Renzi had $207,883 on hand as of Sept. 30, while Cordova had $74,820 remaining then, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Renzi's name recognition in the district also has been higher.
Democrats are downplaying the NAU poll and insist Democrats will vote in large numbers Nov. 5.
"NAU has historically done very good polls, but like every other poll done in District 1, the poll significantly undersamples the Navajo and Hispanic voters, which is where we have our greatest support," said Cindy Jimenez, Cordova's press secretary.
The Cordova camp expects a substantially higher turnout that will have the Democratic base voting and views the race as very competitive, she said.
Solop acknowledged that Indians and lower income groups don't poll as well as others.
"We can't pick them up as reliably," he said, "and so Cordova might have a little bit more support than we're registering."
Four percent said they would vote for Libertarian Edwin Porr and 12 percent remained undecided. Last month, a similar poll showed Renzi and Cordova tied at 37 percent apiece, Porr with 3 percent and 23 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted from Thursday through Sunday among a random sample of 600 likely district voters, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
The Renzi/Cordova race in AZ-01 is for Arizona's newly apportioned seat.
The seat Bob Stump is vacating is AZ-02. Trent Franks (R) faces Randy Camacho (D) in that open-seat contest.
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