Posted on 10/13/2002 12:52:33 PM PDT by BlackRazor
Simmons, Johnson lead polls
Associated Press October 13, 2002
HARTFORD — U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson, a Republican, holds a 7-point lead over Democratic Rep. James Maloney in the new 5th District, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by Rockville, Md.-based Research 2000, found that 45 percent of respondents planned to vote for Johnson, while 38 percent said they'd cast their ballots for Maloney, and 17 percent were undecided. The margin of error was about 4 percentage points. The poll, commissioned by The Day of New London, the Journal Inquirer of Manchester, and the Waterbury Republican-American, surveyed 604 likely voters in the 5th District by telephone Oct. 8-10.
In a University of Connecticut released last week, Maloney was found to trail Johnson by 16 points.
Johnson has served 10 terms in Congress, while Maloney has served three. Redistricting after Connecticut lost a U.S. House seat placed the two incumbents into the same district. The lines were redrawn when Connecticut lost a U.S. House seat after the 2000 Census.
Research 2000 President Del Ali said Johnson has more across-the-aisle appeal than Maloney does.
"She draws better among Democrats than he does among Republicans. She's got a 12-point lead among independents. That's big, considering that independents make up 43 percent of the district," Ali said.
Johnson spokesman Brian Schubert said the congresswoman won't rest on her laurels.
"Nancy has been reaching out to voters throughout the 5th District. That's not going to change," Schubert said.
The Maloney campaign said other polls have shown the race to be much tighter.
"In campaigns where there are so many polls conducted, the normal procedure is to average the difference among the surveys to determine the most accurate head-to-head position. Using this standard, Maloney trails Johnson by a mere 4 points ... with 25 days and double-digit undecideds left in this race," said Maloney spokeswoman Betsy Arnold.
Another poll by Research 2000 and commissioned by the newspapers showed that U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons holds a commanding lead over Democrat Joseph Courtney in the race for the 2nd District.
Simmons, a Republican, is ahead by 19 points, 53 percent to 34 percent. The results come 25 days before the Nov. 5 election and less than three weeks after a University of Connecticut poll showed Simmons with a 22-point lead among likely voters.
"This race is pretty much over," said Ali. "I would be absolutely astounded — floored — at this point if Simmons lost the race."
Simmons leads Courtney in every age group, among men and women, and by a wide margin of 55 to 32 percent among independents, all signs that Courtney's campaign is struggling, Ali said.
Simmons has the support of 18 percent of Democrats, also a bad sign for Courtney, he said. Among Republicans, Simmons enjoys a margin of 86 to 6 percent.
Although national Democrats have vowed to target Simmons after his narrow upset of 10-term incumbent Sam Gejdenson in 2000, Courtney's poor showing in polls so close to Election Day could cause the party to spend its money elsewhere, Ali said.
But party officials have said Courtney is one of fewer than 20 House candidates nationwide for whom the party will continue running television ads.
Simmons tried to avoid sounding overconfident about the results Friday.
"I'm always happy to see positive polls, but the only poll that will make me feel good is the one on Election Day," he said.'
Courtney insisted the gap reflects Simmons' substantial fund-raising advantage and the amount of money spent on pro-Simmons advertisements by groups tied to the pharmaceutical industry. Courtney also noted that the polling stopped just one day after his campaign launched its first television ad and in the same week that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running an ad on his behalf.
The poll surveyed 601 likely voters in eastern Connecticut by telephone between Oct. 8 and Oct. 10.
Some 13 percent of voters said they remain undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
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