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Carson, McVey in tight race, poll finds [IN-07]
Indianapolis Star ^ | 10/01/02 | Mary Beth Schneider

Posted on 10/01/2002 8:13:51 AM PDT by BlackRazor

Edited on 05/07/2004 6:26:34 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

The race to represent Indianapolis in Congress is a statistical dead heat.

A new poll taken for The Star and WTHR (Channel 13) shows that the incumbent, Democratic U.S. Rep. Julia Carson, is leading her Republican challenger, Brose McVey, 42 percent to 38 percent.


(Excerpt) Read more at indystar.com ...


TOPICS: Indiana; Campaign News; Polls; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS: carson; congress; house; indiana; mcvey

1 posted on 10/01/2002 8:13:52 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: conservative_2001; Coop; DeaconBenjamin; mwl1; frmrda; KQQL; rightwingbob; caltrop; Hellwege; ...
Poll Ping!

This is one of those sleeper races that I thought might conceivably come into play under the right circumstances. This race has been getting an awful lot of recent coverage in the Indiana newspapers, and I was getting a sense that things might be tightening up. Demographics still favor the incumbent Democrat, but maybe McVey can keep the heat on her. Campaign fundraising is about equal, with McVey having a slight advantage.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

2 posted on 10/01/2002 8:17:13 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: Torie
Flag
3 posted on 10/01/2002 8:17:35 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
I consider this race near hopeless, unless Carson has managed to offend some white Democrats in the past two years. The partisan split in the poll is dubious. The Dems are not going to stay home, and there will be a high black turnout if the word goes out that she is at risk. The flip side is Gekas, where I gave him the edge despite the polls showing it even because of the nature of the district. Most folks in the end vote as they normally vote absent unusual circumstances, particularly for non statewide races.
4 posted on 10/01/2002 8:25:32 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
What are your thoughts on KY-03, where a recent independent poll showed Northrup's lead down to 40-37? Until then, I had Northrup with a clear edge. But on the other hand, Conway was running ads touting his having worked with Gov. Patton. Now, that doesn't look so great!
5 posted on 10/01/2002 8:31:31 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
I thought I read 50-47. Maybe it was a misprint, since that shows everyone has made up their mind. That district is even generically. I don't see why Northrup would lose as an incumbent, and I have read she is pulling more of the black vote this time. She has won it before against well funded candidates when it was more Dem. But the Dem is a first tier candidate, so it might be pretty close. The Dem getting that last 2 or 3 percent however will be like pulling teeth.
6 posted on 10/01/2002 8:36:51 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
I'm going to have to agree. Every race she has run since '96 has shown in polling data to be close, and she continues to prevail. The district last went GOP in '72 with Bill Hudnut when he interrupted Andy Jacobs's 30-year tenure for a term (Watergate handed the seat back to Jacobs in '74). The best shot we had was in '94 with Marvin Bailey Scott, a Black Republican, but I've been told the IN State GOP apparatus is in total shambles and no one bothered to give Scott the time of the day, despite a near-upset of Jacobs (who thought his time was just about up and retired the next cycle). Until we can take back the governorship and the State House so that we can redraw the lines, that will be a Dem seat for the remainder of this decade. Had we a Governor Goldsmith or McIntosh, we could've taken out 3 Dems (along with Roemer, we could've chopped Baron Hill's seat in half, and merged a big chunk of Dan Burton's district into Carson's), and changed the current 6-4 GOP majority into an 8-1 equation (perhaps even with real creativity, taken out Visclosky, but that might be too much to hope for). That's why it's so terribly important we win those Governor's & legislative races...
7 posted on 10/01/2002 9:28:52 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj
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To: Torie
You're probably right about the partisan split. After adjusting these poll results for the actual voter split in this district, they nearly mirror the 14-point lead Carson had in an earlier poll.
8 posted on 10/01/2002 10:08:43 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: Torie
I thought I read 50-47. Maybe it was a misprint, since that shows everyone has made up their mind.

Nope - you were right, it's 50-47. I verified it on Conway's campaign website. That makes me feel much better... if she'd fallen down to 40%, I was ready to move the race to Leans Democrat. With only 3% undecided, it must have been a SurveyUSA poll... In any event, I've downgraded Northrup's chances from 59% to 55%, on account of the consistent tightening of the polls in this race. Where do you have this one pegged?

9 posted on 10/01/2002 1:18:11 PM PDT by BlackRazor
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