[BlackRazor]

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[Torie]

I consider this race near hopeless, unless Carson has managed to offend some white Democrats in the past two years. The partisan split in the poll is dubious. The Dems are not going to stay home, and there will be a high black turnout if the word goes out that she is at risk. The flip side is Gekas, where I gave him the edge despite the polls showing it even because of the nature of the district. Most folks in the end vote as they normally vote absent unusual circumstances, particularly for non statewide races.