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Poll puts Sebelius 17 points ahead [KS Governor]
The Wichita Eagle ^ | 9/17/02 | Jean Hays

Posted on 09/17/2002 7:08:49 AM PDT by BlackRazor

Poll puts Sebelius 17 points ahead

BY JEAN HAYS

The Wichita Eagle

In the race for governor, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius has a wide lead over Republican challenger Tim Shallenburger, according to a poll by The Wichita Eagle and KWCH, Eyewitness News 12.

The poll, taken over the weekend, is the first to be made public since the parties chose nominees in the August primary.

With the election still 50 days away, Sebelius has a 17-point lead. She owes much of her popularity to female voters.

Womensaid they prefer Sebelius to Shallenburger by a 2-1 ratio, regardless of their party.

It's called the gender gap, according to Joe Shipman of SurveyUSA, the national company that conducted the poll.

"This is a phenomenon we are seeing a lot this year," he said.

In Minnesota and Maryland, where voters will choose a governor between a woman who is a Democrat and a man who is a Republican, polling shows women voters are overwhelming choosing by gender rather than party, he said.

The survey questioned 680 Kansans who are likely to vote in the Nov 5 election. The statewide poll has a 3.9-point margin of error.

Of those polled, 55 percent said they intended to vote for Sebelius, while 38 percent said they would vote for Shallenburger.

Only 6 percent of the voters said they were undecided or planned to vote for other candidates. Two percent of those polled said they planned to vote for Libertarian Dennis Hawver; 1 percent went with Reform Party candidate Ted Pettibone.

Bob Murray, a spokesman for Shallenburger's campaign, said he was not surprised by the poll.

Eight weeks before the primary election, polls showed Shallenburger trailing by 20 points, he said. Shallenburger won by 13 points.

"The election is not tomorrow," he said.

Sebelius' campaign is not taking anything for granted, according to communication director Nicole Corcoran-Basso.

"We appreciate the confidence it shows in Kathleen Sebelius," she said. "The only poll we really count on is from the people of Kansas on Nov 5."

Among the poll's findings:

Younger voters support Shallenburger, while those 55 and up tend to like Sebelius.

Only 3 percent are undecided, according to the poll. The low number of undecided voters numbers is a function of how the poll is conducted. The responses combine those who say they have made up their mind with those who are leaning toward voting for a particular candidate.

Sebelius is leading in Wichita and western Kansas.

While a Democrat leads in the race for governor, Republican candidates are ahead in the races for attorney general, state treasurer and insurance commissioner.


TOPICS: Kansas; Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: governor; kansas; sebelius; shallenburger
Disappointing news out of Kansas, but I can't say it's really unexpected. Sebelius held a 16-point lead in a pre-primary poll against Shallenburger, so I'm somewhat surprised the race hasn't tightened at all in the aftermath of the primary. But then again, GOP infighting over this one (the current GOP governor has yet to endorse Shallenburger) has been damaging.

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

1 posted on 09/17/2002 7:08:49 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: conservative_2001; Coop; DeaconBenjamin; rightwingbob
Poll Ping!
2 posted on 09/17/2002 7:09:17 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel
Unless I'm mistaken, Shallenburger was the most conservative of all the GOP candidates running the primary. Or are you referring to the current Governor as the RINO?
4 posted on 09/17/2002 7:12:44 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: BlackRazor
This race is far from over.
7 posted on 09/17/2002 12:23:50 PM PDT by RAT Patrol
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To: William Creel
Some candidates who are not all that bad get tagged with RINO. Graves deserves it but others don't. Also, many voters see themselves as moderate who really lean more conservative than they realize. "Moderate" is a broad term. We need to target the moderate moderates and win them over. Graves is history so we probably should not worry about him. He's just a bitter ingrate at this point.
8 posted on 09/17/2002 12:28:07 PM PDT by RAT Patrol
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To: William Creel; AdA$tra; jonefab; TroutStalker; Steel Eye
ping
9 posted on 09/17/2002 12:31:13 PM PDT by RAT Patrol
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To: RAT Patrol
Haven't seen hide nor hair of Shallenburger yet anyway. Kathleen is advertising on every commercial break in the Topeka market.

This is going to be an uphill climb. Just as I told RW the first time I posted on a Kansas politics thread: Shallenburger has all the right philosophies intact, but his personality may prove a liability. He just isn't as "slick" and well spoken as some politicians. To me that is fine. To soccer moms it may be an issue. Prove me wrong Tim, Please!
10 posted on 09/17/2002 2:43:31 PM PDT by AdA$tra
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To: AdA$tra
Keep in mind the polls were all wrong about the primary.

I doubt Sebelius can do that much harm anyway. I believe she is a true liberal at heart but she will not have enough 'rats to help her agenda. On most issues she won't be any worse than Graves has been. On abortion--the issue that seems to dominate--she can't make it MORE legal. She will raise our taxes, you can bank on that. It's her public school and other spending agendas that worry me the most. This is the wrong time for a tax and spend democrat to take control.

What I don't get about voters is that they can vote for Sebelius for Gov. and Kline for AG. How weird is that? Right now I think it's primarily name recognition.

11 posted on 09/17/2002 3:15:10 PM PDT by RAT Patrol
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To: BlackRazor
I had grave fears this would be the case.

Shallenburger has yet to run ONE tv ad.

He is toast.
12 posted on 09/17/2002 3:33:17 PM PDT by rwfromkansas
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Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: AdA$tra
I am getting extremely pessimistic about this race.

Shallenburger is now 16 points down, not 25 or so like primary-time polls showed. But he will have a lot of work ahead of him.....this will not be easy at all. He has been at the state fair every day....very good. But by golly, he needs to get on the dang airwaves and start refuting Sebelius or people will just believe her.....she is extremely good at luring people in.....when I watch her commercials I just just about want to put up a Sebelius sign in the window (well, that is a bit of a stretch obviously, but you get the point that she is a slick politician). It is now almost October. The time for ads is now......
14 posted on 09/17/2002 3:37:57 PM PDT by rwfromkansas
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To: rwfromkansas
Note that I am speaking of Shallenburger/Sebelius polls.
15 posted on 09/17/2002 3:38:38 PM PDT by rwfromkansas
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To: William Creel
Can't the Republicans override her? Exactly. Hopefully she can be kept from taxing and spending too much that way. But I still think she will lose. The polls were wrong about the primary. She has a decent chance because the Mods are bitter at the Conservatives. The other way a 'rat wins is if they are pro-life and draw some conservatives to their side. It's all a coalition thing for the 'rats. The media helps them by playing up the GOP division and by defining the 'rat as "conservative" or "centrist." That's why Sebelius is misrepresenting herself as a "conservative."
16 posted on 09/17/2002 4:07:01 PM PDT by RAT Patrol
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To: BlackRazor
put me on your ping list
17 posted on 09/19/2002 6:57:33 PM PDT by Tribune7
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