Posted on 09/16/2002 7:16:36 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Alexander grabs 18-point advantage over Clement
By Tom Humphrey
The Knoxville News-Sentinel
September 16, 2002
Republican Lamar Alexander has a commanding lead in the U.S. Senate race over Democrat Bob Clement, according to a new Tennessee Poll.
"Alexander has all but got this thing wrapped up - unless something really strange happens," said Dr. Michael Gant, a University of Tennessee, Knoxville, political science professor and director of the UT Social Science Research Institute.
Forty-five percent of the 605 registered voters who took part in the statewide telephone survey said they intended to vote for Alexander, a former governor, in November.
Clement, first elected to Congress in 1988, was the choice of 27 percent. Twenty-eight percent of those polled were undecided or favored another candidate.
The Tennessee Poll, commissioned by The Knoxville News-Sentinel, was conducted Sept. 3-10.
Clement spokesman Carol Andrews questioned poll results, saying a Democratic National Senatorial Committee survey released last week found the race considerably closer - Alexander at 49 percent and Clement at 42 percent.
An Alexander poll in late August put the margin at 14 points, 53-39 percent.
The Tennessee Poll survey results have a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Andrews said an Alexander advantage is to be expected at this point, since the Republican had spent more than $2 million on television advertising at the time the poll was taken while "we haven't spent a dime."
Clement plans to begin TV advertising this week, she said, predicting the Democrat will soon be gaining ground as his "message of lowering prescription drug costs, enacting a real patients' bill of rights, protecting Social Security, bolstering homeland security and strengthening public education resonates with Tennesseans."
The congressman also has been critical of multimillionaire Alexander for "sweetheart deals" in his business career, and those also may be a topic of Clement advertising to come.
Kevin Phillips, spokesman for Alexander, said the Tennessee Poll was good news for the campaign.
"This poll shows Gov. Alexander with a double-digit lead, consistent with our own poll," he said. "It's clear that more voters believe Lamar was a good governor who'll be a good senator. But we're taking nothing for granted and will campaign hard every day."
Gant said that Clement can be expected to draw closer when his advertising gets under way, but said it would take some "ugly skeletons" from an Alexander closet to put the Democrat ahead.
"Once they start spending, they're going to close the gap. But it's a huge gap now," said Gant. "Even with a good scenario for Clement, I can't see Alexander dropping much below 55 percent by Election Day."
The poll indicated considerable support for Alexander across the political spectrum. He was ahead in all three of the state's geographic grand divisions and by more than 2-to-1 in his native East Tennessee, which is predominantly Republican.
Twenty-two percent of poll participants who consider themselves Democrats said they would vote for Alexander; 8 percent of those considering themselves Republicans said they would prefer Clement.
A third of those who said they would vote for Democrat Phil Bredesen in the governor's race said they preferred Alexander for the Senate. As reported on Sunday, the poll found Bredesen leading Republican Van Hilleary by 8 percentage points in the governor's race.
"Bredesen and Alexander look an awful lot alike to me on many issues," said Gant. "You can make the case that the difference between them is no greater, and maybe less, than the difference between Alexander and Hilleary."
Three-fourths of voters who said they were politically conservative preferred Alexander vs. 25 percent for Clement; 58 percent of political moderates chose Alexander vs. 42 percent for Clement.
Only among those who consider themselves as politically liberal did Clement hold the lead, 57 percent to 33 percent.
While black voters favored Clement heavily, 26 percent said they would vote for Alexander in November. Gant said this support is well ahead of what Republicans typically draw.
Older voters were more likely to prefer Clement and, among those over age 65, the difference between the two candidates was a single percentage point in Alexander's favor.
President Bush, who holds a 60 percent approval rating among Tennessee voters, will campaign for Alexander in Nashville on Tuesday. The poll indicated a correlation between support for Bush and for Alexander, who has repeatedly promised to back Bush on issues if elected.
The GOP has been very smart this primary season. The folks have done well in almost all cases for federal offices in picking their strongest candidate. Kudos to them all.
Yes I generally agree. However failing to recruit a strong candidate in Montana was a huge screw up. Baucus should have been the most vulnerable incumbant and a sure pick-up this election cycle.
They sure are awfully low numbers! Around primary-time, Clement was polling in the high 30's. I can think of no reason why his numbers would have declined (so precipitously) in the time since. Perhaps this poll didn't push "leaners" to make a decision, while the earlier polls did? Who knows.
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