Phelps' Poll Shows Him Even With Shimkus [IL-19]

Roll Call ^ | 9/16/02 | Lauren W. Whittington

[BlackRazor]

Phelps' Poll Shows Him Even With Shimkus

A new Democratic poll in the 19th district contest between Reps. John Shimkus (R) and David Phelps (D) showed the race in a statistical dead heat.

The poll, conducted for Phelps' campaign by Alan Secrest of the Alexandria, Va.-based polling firm Cooper & Secrest Associates, found Phelps at 40 percent and Shimkus at 38 percent, a lead within the survey's 4 percent margin of error.

The poll surveyed 504 likely voters Sept. 4 and 5. It also found Shimkus held a 75 percent to 68 percent name-identification advantage over Phelps.

In the gubernatorial matchup between Rep. Rod Blagojevich (D) and state Attorney General Jim Ryan, the survey found Blagojevich leading 45 percent to 31 percent in the district.

The redrawn district favors Republicans. Shimkus currently represents about 63 percent of the territory, while Phelps represents 34 percent.

Phelps and Shimkus are one of the four pairs of Members forced to run against each other this year because of redistricting.

The only other polling that has been released in the 19th district race was a Cooper & Secrest poll conducted last November that showed Shimkus leading 40 percent to 34 percent.

[BlackRazor]

This is an incumbent vs. incumbent race. I've had this one leaning GOP from the start. Demographics favor Shimkus and he also has a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage over Phelps. However, Phelps is a conservative Democrat who could win in a district like this. I think this is a particularly important seat for the GOP to win if they want to retain the House, and I worry that Jim Ryan's poor showing in the gubernatorial race might hurt his chances. This is a Dem poll, so in reality, Shimkus probably has a slight lead here, but it is close.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

Coop: Do you want me to flag you on the House race polls, or just the Gubernatorial/Senate ones?

[Coop]

Bring 'em all on! I enjoy reading about the various districts, even if I don't track them. In this case, there was a gov poll buried in the House poll, so I doubly benefitted. Thanks!

[rightwingbob]

GOP just may lose.

1. Phelps has an acu rating in the upper-40's, not bad for a dem.

2. Blagojevich/Durbin coat-tails will probably be very strong. Might even be strong enough to knock out Mark Kirk (a RINO more liberal than Phelps) in IL-10, a GORE-VOTING district.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The GOP ain't gonna lose this one (or RINO Kirk's, either -- that isn't a seriously contested seat this year). Rod probably won't have coattails (and I'm predicting Lisa Madigan will go down to a narrow defeat, and we may even see an upset for Sec of State), although the Dems (due to gerrymandering) will likely reclaim the Senate. Good luck in getting that back anytime soon. :-(