[BlackRazor]

This is an incumbent vs. incumbent race. I've had this one leaning GOP from the start. Demographics favor Shimkus and he also has a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage over Phelps. However, Phelps is a conservative Democrat who could win in a district like this. I think this is a particularly important seat for the GOP to win if they want to retain the House, and I worry that Jim Ryan's poor showing in the gubernatorial race might hurt his chances. This is a Dem poll, so in reality, Shimkus probably has a slight lead here, but it is close.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

Coop: Do you want me to flag you on the House race polls, or just the Gubernatorial/Senate ones?

[rightwingbob]

GOP just may lose.

1. Phelps has an acu rating in the upper-40's, not bad for a dem.

2. Blagojevich/Durbin coat-tails will probably be very strong. Might even be strong enough to knock out Mark Kirk (a RINO more liberal than Phelps) in IL-10, a GORE-VOTING district.