Clement Camp Says Alexander Lead Is 7 Points [TN Senate]

Democratic pundit Tommy Burnett today cited recent a new poll placing Bob Clement "only 7 points behind Lamar Alexander despite the fact that Alexander has spent millions on television advertising and Clement has yet to spend one dime," the Clement campaign said.

A tracking poll taken this week puts Alexander under 50% at 49, with Clement landing on 42%, it was stated.

Burnett made these remarks this morning on Teddy Bart's Roundtable: "The polls that were run, particularly a tracking poll that was run September the 9th, statewide, shows that Mr. Alexander is at 49% of the vote and Bob Clement is at 42. That's a 7-point difference. And I realize that's a pretty good difference when you think about it. But what you don't realize is, and think about it, is that Alexander has spent $2.5 million dollars in campaign advertising in the primary and up to date on television. And Bob Clement hasn’t spent a penny. In the next 10 days he will start his political ads on television.

"So for my friend Alexander, it's got to be somewhat of a warning, to know that he's still less than 50% having spent $2.4 million And that Clement has 42% on his own volition and only 7 points difference between the two, and hasn't spent a dime."

The Clement campaign said the poll is "phenomenal and testimony that Clement's message of lowering prescription drug costs, enacting a real Patients' Bill of Rights, protecting Social Security, bolstering homeland security and strengthening public education resonates with Tennesseans. That's because Bob Clement puts Tennesseans first, every single time."

Reading between the lines on this one, I feel pretty certain this is a Dem-sponsored poll. Otherwise, Burnett probably would have gone out of his way to state it was an independent one. If so, these results aren't so different from the last independent poll done in June, which gave Alexander a 48-37 lead.

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

Any moderate to conservative Democrat is always a threat in Tennessee. Furthermore, the Tennessee Republican Party is likely still somewhat split over the ugly primary battles. At this point, 42 to 49 is pretty good news for Lamar Alexander.

WFTR
Bill

"Any moderate to conservative Democrat is always a threat in Tennessee."

Being one of Clement's constituents during his too-long tenure of almost 15 years (come January), he's rather liberal with an occasional moderate tendency, but often ranks only 2nd to the Memphis Fords for liberalism. I would likely predict his low 20s (ACU) Conservative vote would drop into the teens to resemble the last 2 elected Senate Dems voting records, a fella named Sasser and another fella named Gore... The GOP ain't nearly as split as the Dems would want folks to believe, most of us stridently Ed Bryant supporters were able to make the leap to the other guy with only minimal grousing. Look for this to probably be about a ten to dozen point win for Lamar! over Bob.

Reality is that Clement's voting record is liberal, but he is working to create a conservative personna for the campaign. I think it will fool some people.

I don't think that the division in the GOP ranks will cause those who were faithful to one candidate to refuse to vote for the other. I do think that many normally enthusiastic volunteers will greatly reduce their campaign activities this time.

I think Lamar by seven or eight would be most likely, but he may get the double-digit win.

WFTR
Bill

A tracking poll taken this week puts Alexander under 50% at 49, with Clement landing on 42%, it was stated.

A 7 point spread is a big spread in elections. What that means is there are 9 percent of the voters who are undecided. For the Democrat to win about 8 out of the 9 undecideds would have to go to the Democrat.

Undecideds often fall 2 to 1 for the challenger in a race. So if you class the Democrat as a challneger it becomes a 52 48 win for Alenander. But since neither is the incumbant it is more likely to fall no worse than 60 40 against Alexander. That would mean a 53 to 47 win for Alexander.

When considering numbers remember that Reagan has the biggest landslide over Walter Mondale in 1984 with a 58 to 42 win. A 53 to 47 win is a very solid win.

A seven point spread with 9 points undecided is a big lead and very very hard to overcome.

A seven point spread with 9 points undecided is a big lead and very very hard to overcome.

Of course, that assumes that the lead is really and truly 7 points. Unfortunately, we don't know that for a fact. Assuming a fairly typical margin of error of around 3.5%, this very same poll could theoretically mean the race is dead even! (Or alternatively that Alexander leads by 14). Due to such statistical uncertainty, it is dangerous to write off any race that remains in the single digits.

BTW, in case you haven't seen it yet, a new independent poll released today shows Alexander with a 45-27 lead.

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