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Hensarling-Chapman Race Remains Tight [TX-05]
Roll Call ^
| 9/9/02
| Chris Cillizza
Posted on 09/09/2002 8:07:49 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Hensarling-Chapman Race Remains Tight
Former National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Jeb Hensarling (R) enjoyed a 6-point lead over former Dallas County judge Ron Chapman(D) in the open 5th district race, according to a poll conducted for Hensarling's campaign.
Hensarling took 39 percent of the vote to 33 percent for Chapman in the Baselice & Associates survey.
In the field from Aug. 11 to 13, the poll's sample was 400 likely voters with a 4.9 percent margin of error.
In a generic ballot question 46 percent said they would support a Republican candidate while 33 percent said they would back a Democrat.
Interestingly, the poll also claimed that much of Chapman's support comes from voters who confuse him with a Dallas radio disc jockeywith the same name.
"Dallas voters, who represent 58 percent of the district's electorate, are six times more likely than voters in the district's other counties to think RonChapman is a radio DJ," the polling memo noted.
The seat came open when Rep. Pete Sessions (R) announced he would move to the new 32nd district, a more safely Republican Dallas-area seat.
Chris Cillizza
TOPICS: Texas; Campaign News; Polls; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS: chapman; hensarling; house; texas
The Cook Political Report moved this race from Likely GOP to Leans GOP in early August. Now, this GOP poll confirms the race has tightened. I'm a bit concerned about this one. I didn't really expect it to be in play, but when Hensarling's own polling shows it so close, I guess it's time to take notice!
There's a bunch of other good information at this link: A GOP poll showing Tim Hutchinson with a 3-point lead; a Dem poll showing Ron Kirk with a 5-point lead over John Cornyn; and an independent poll showing Anne Northrup (R) with a 10-point lead in KY-05. That last one, in particular, is good news!
To: Torie; Coop
Flag - see my comments in Post 1.
To: BlackRazor
Correction: I meant to say KY-03 in Post 1.
To: BlackRazor
a Dem poll showing Ron Kirk with a 5-point lead over John Cornyn;
Well I guess the Dims did not like the two independent polls that showed General Cornyn up 5 and 6 points.
4
posted on
09/09/2002 9:00:58 AM PDT
by
jf55510
To: BlackRazor
I had started noticing Texas-05 a little while back. A dated Democratic poll had Chapman up by 5 or 6, now a Republican poll has Hensarling up by 6. So in reality they're probably running about even right now. We should win this one, but can't take it for granted.
I expected that the national parties would show Kirk and Hutchinson with leads. The last two polls had showed Cornyn picking up momentum; 1 of them was even a Democratic poll. And the last independent poll showed Hutchinson down 10, although it's hard to believe. So what do you know, the national parties released polls showing their man in the lead. Not surprising.
Northup is always in a tough race. Her district is actually Democratic, she's just been able to overcome it. She'll never have a cakewalk. She's always been a great fundraiser and that's been her savior. This time she faces a tough opponent. He's raised a lot of money himself and had very good favorable/unfavorable numbers in that poll. With leaners factored in, IMO a more reliable number, Northup leads 51-38%. I'm guessing she'll win with a typical 53-54% of the vote.
To: conservative_2001
I had started noticing Texas-05 a little while back. A dated Democratic poll had Chapman up by 5 or 6, now a Republican poll has Hensarling up by 6. So in reality they're probably running about even right now. We should win this one, but can't take it for granted. Yes, there was a mid-July Dem poll that showed Chapman with a 43-37 lead. That was also when I put this race on my radar screen, but didn't really take Chapman's challenge too seriously until I saw this latest poll from Hensarling's group. This district is heavily GOP, however, and if the Hensarling campaign can get people to realize Chapman is not this popular disc jockey with the same name, they should be OK. But like you said, it can't be taken for granted.
To: BlackRazor
If we lose this seat, Pete Sessions is to blame.
He could have stayed and kept this seat(TX-5) safely in our hands. However, he chose to move to the new(TX-32) Plano district which is so heavily Republican that he would never have to run a campaign again.
Don't get me wrong - Sessions is definitely one of the good guys in Congress - a true Conservative. On this point, however, he needs to be chided for putting his personal interests ahead of the Conservative Cause.
7
posted on
09/09/2002 10:37:31 AM PDT
by
pbranham
To: BlackRazor
This district is heavily GOP No, I'm afraid it is not, which is why Sessions left it. It was a RAT district until SCOTUS tinkered with it in '96, making it a very slightly Republican district, and allowing Sessions to eke out a victory. It was redrawn last year by a federal court which made it a little more Republican. Now it is probably in the +5-10% Republican range -- certainly not a safe margin.
8
posted on
09/09/2002 10:45:58 AM PDT
by
pbranham
To: conservative_2001; BlackRazor
Here's the poll you two mentioned:
July 10-15 Chapman 43, Hensarling 37 [Bennett Petts Blumenthal (D), 450 reg, MOE 4.9]
To: pbranham
No, I'm afraid it is not, which is why Sessions left it. It was a RAT district until SCOTUS tinkered with it in '96, making it a very slightly Republican district, and allowing Sessions to eke out a victory. It was redrawn last year by a federal court which made it a little more Republican. Now it is probably in the +5-10% Republican range -- certainly not a safe margin. From what I had seen, the newly drawn district has a 59-41 GOP registration advantage. Sessions won with 55% in 2000, while Bush received 62% in this district. Those numbers appear consistent with the registration edge, especially since they do not reflect the extra-GOP lean given by redistricting. However, races here can be much closer than that. The 1998 votes for Governor and Comptroller would have produced only about 53% for the GOP candidates in the newly drawn district. In any case, your estimate of 5-10% is probably dead-on when it comes to voter behavior, and that's all that really matters.
To: BlackRazor
that is all that matters in an open seat, but sessions with his incumbency advantage could have hold the seat for the decade without a democratic national tsunami, so he really put his interests above the party
11
posted on
09/10/2002 2:47:44 AM PDT
by
Hellwege
To: conservative_2001
This same poll gives Hensarling about 20% name-recognition, and chapman has over 70%. That basically explains the poll results.
To: BlackRazor
a Dem poll showing Ron Kirk with a 5-point lead over John Cornyn; I thought Cornyn had about a 5 point lead. Since it's a Dem poll, if you subtract 5 points that makes them only tied.
13
posted on
09/10/2002 8:53:00 AM PDT
by
lasereye
To: lasereye
There have been three polls put out on this race over the past week. An independent poll giving Cornyn a 5-point lead, a Dem poll giving Cornyn a 6-point lead, and now this Dem poll giving Kirk a 5-point lead.
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