Michigan Republicans in the lead, Dems in disarray!

4-29-2002 | Rusty Hills

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

TO: Republican Leaders FROM: Chairman Rusty Hills DATE: Monday, April 29, 2002 RE: Republicans in the Lead

There's been considerable rumbling in the media and among so-called "opinion leaders" that Michigan Republicans are facing an impossible task this November. For the past year, the fortune-tellers in Lansing have said retaining the Governor's office and our majorities in the state House and state Senate is simply not in the cards.

I'm happy to report that we are well on our way to proving the "experts" wrong.

According to recently filed campaign finance reports, both Michigan State House Republicans and State Senate Republicans have a significant cash edge on their Democratic counterparts.

Strong GOP House

Those reports show the House Republican Campaign Committee reports having $544,962 cash on hand through April 20, 2002. The Michigan House Democratic Fund reports less than half that, $238,396.

Stronger GOP Senate

Republicans in the Michigan State Senate show an even larger lead over their Democratic counterparts. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee reports $1.26 million cash on hand. That figure is two-and-a-half times the $494,973 reported by the Senate Democratic Fund. And all this comes before the Senate Republicans hold their annual fundraiser.

People vote with their dollars as well as with their votes, and as a result, Republicans in both the Michigan House and Senate are well positioned to keep and/or expand their majorities following the 2002 election.

Dem Disarray

While Republicans in the statehouse are taking bold steps to consolidate their positions of strength, the Democratic gubernatorial race shows more volatility than ever.

According to the most recent EPIC/MRA poll, former Governor Jim Blanchard is tied for first with Attorney General Jennifer Granholm, both at 34%. Congressman David Bonior is third with 16% support.

The poll is of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, with a 5 percent plus-or-minus margin of error.

This poll raises several interesting points:

1. The race is getting tighter. Many pundits expected this race to start to spread-eagle at this point, with one candidate pulling away. Not so. In fact, just the opposite is occurring, with the race between Blanchard, Bonior and Granholm getting tighter.

2. Bonior showed the greatest single gain of any candidate. But the largest overall gain was of undecideds. The number of respondents saying they are undecided rose from 10% to 17% (putting undecided voters (17%) ahead of Bonior supporters (16%), though statistically the difference is insignificant).

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

A ping to all Michiganders. Can we please start a ping list of folks who are interested in the next election and Michigan issues?

[Dan from Michigan]

I'm 75% sure I'm voting dem in the primary, despite being on the ballot for precinct delegate. I'm probably voting for Blanchard, or whoever is closest to Granholm. If Bonior gets to 30% in the EPIC poll(Dems internal poll), I MAY go Bonior. What worries me is a bunch of GOP votes splitting between Bonior and Blanchard. If Granholm wins with 35% because of a split, we're in a bad way. I do think Alma Smith's blistering attack on Granholm helped. She basically called her an empty suit, and said she wanted the first woman governor to be qualified.

I know some gunowners who are even getting Blanchard Signs out just for the primary. They'll vote for Posthumus in November, but want Granholm gone. I can't get myself to get a Blanchard sign though.

[RCW2001]

I was wondering the other day if you would still be able to vote in the Dem primary while running for the GOP precinct. Guess you have answered that one.

Do you have Blanchard's position on gun's, especially in regards to the CCW?

Going to bring back memories getting into the ole democrat line at the fire barn... Hope I can find some good smoke...to really make it 'surreal'...LOL!!!

[The Energizer]

Thanks. This is good news. But all of us need to work hard on the various campaigns. We can't afford to get cocky!

[Dan from Michigan]

Blanchard said on "Off the Record" with Tim Skubic that he would have vetoed CCW. He's not our friend. He's not as rabid as Granholm, and he's easier to beat than Granholm.

[msuMD]

What are the poll numbers of Posthumus head to head with Blanchard or Granholm? I have looked for them, but have never been able to find them.

[Dan from Michigan]

According to the polls, Granholm wins by 20pts, and Blanchard by 18. Blanchard was up about 10% back in 1990 against Engler, and lost.

I don't believe much in polls myself(Gop vs dem). Anything within 10 points is a tie.

[Dan from Michigan]

And on the other side Spence abraham was up 20pts on Stabenow in July. We all know what happened there.