Posted on 03/21/2025 8:17:41 AM PDT by Signalman
Democrats may be in for a wake-up call in New Hampshire as early polling suggests Republicans could easily win a Senate seat in the blue state. Former Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH) by a sizable 53% to 44% margin in a hypothetical 2026 Senate race, according to a newly released poll.
While neither Sununu nor Pappas has formally declared their candidacy, both are expected to run, and the numbers show an early advantage for the GOP in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. If these figures hold, it would represent a major warning sign for Democrats heading into a crucial election year.
Sununu’s early lead is powered by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a commanding performance among independents (52%-44%), and a significant advantage with male voters (59%-39%) according to Quantus Insights. Even more troubling for Democrats, Sununu is holding his own with women voters, splitting the vote at 48%.
Another critical factor in Sununu’s strength is his appeal to non-college voters, where he holds a 58% lead. This demographic has played a growing role in shaping New Hampshire elections, particularly in working-class areas that have drifted rightward in recent years.
The numbers show a growing trend of Republican gains in the state. While former President Joe Biden carried New Hampshire by over seven points in 2020, President Donald Trump cut that margin to just 2.8 points against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
If that trend continues, it could spell trouble for Democrats trying to hold onto their Senate majority.
Despite Sununu’s early lead, Democrats are not out of the fight. Pappas remains a well-known figure in New Hampshire politics, having won multiple terms in the state’s First Congressional District, a swing seat that often flips between parties.
But he will need to overcome some significant hurdles.
The national mood in 2026 remains uncertain. President Trump holds a 43.8% approval rating in New Hampshire, with 48.5% disapproving.
While he has strong Republican support (83% approval), he remains underwater with independents (37% approve, 54% disapprove), a key voting bloc.
If national Democratic leaders struggle in 2026, Pappas may have difficulty distancing himself from the party’s broader challenges. Regardless, if Sununu maintains his popularity and crossover appeal, it will force Democrats to play defense in a state that has long been considered safe for their party.
Democrats have consistently won New Hampshire Senate races over the past two decades, but Sununu’s strong position suggests the political map may be shifting. If Republicans can flip the seat, it would represent a major blow to Democrats’ efforts to hold their Senate majority.
With nearly two years to go until the election, both parties will be watching closely to see if these early trends hold. However, Democrats can no longer take New Hampshire for granted.
he’s fine for New Hampshire.
If Anderson Cooper called him a bad name, he must be at least ok!
Republicans have more seats to defend next year. Here in AZ, meathead, er I mean Mark Kelly is up and I would sure love to see a solid Republican who can Win with Mccainville clan. I wish we could get a celebrity like Larry Fitzgerald or Alice Cooper to run!
It depends on the issue.
When the dems controlled the house and senate in NH, they started the first day with over 900 bills they had ready to pass.
Sununu vetoed a lot of them.
Depending on the issue, he is a RINO, libertarian or conservative.
Sununu vs. Democrat = either a Democrat or a Democrat supporter will go to the Senate and will fight against Trump.
I’ll take it. It’s way better than any DEMOCRAT!
Yeah
Chris doesn’t seem to be his father
May be an act, but it’s a good one
“Republicans have more seats to defend next year.”
True, but not relevant since most of those are slam-dunk retentions.
Kelly is not up next year. He was elected to a full term in 2022.
The only states in which either party has any real chance to flip a Senate seat are:
D to R: Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota (sort of a chance, but highly unlikely as things stand now)
R to D: Maine, North Carolina
It will also be very helpful if actual conservatives defeat RINOs in Senate primaries in Louisiana (Cassidy) and Texas (Cornyn).
You better get someone to get rid of Mr. Giffords or else Phoenix is going to end up the same way West Covina did: just another town in Mexico Norte.
He supported birdbrain Nikki Haley in the primaries.
“You better get someone to get rid of Mr. Giffords”
Plenty of time to find someone for that task.
His next election is in 2028.
Oh, the birdbrain Nikki. 😠 She deserves a capital “B”. LOL! Trump comes up with the best nicknames.
No kidding, not only do they stick, they make me LOL
He probably thinks the Dems have the majority because all you see on tv is Schumer and his ugly mug.
In Northern New England, where I live, for US Senate, you can have a RINO or you can have a communist.
Make up your minds.
This might not be the victory hoped for since this guy is wa-a-a-a-ay anti-Trump. Dems may get a win either way.
The writer possibly confused some facts so that the conclusion he posts sounds totally wrong. It is and isn’t. True the Dems
do not have a Senate majority. But what they do have is a 60 vote rule to lean on and Repubs do not have 60 but barely over 50...53 to be exact and some of those are squishes...
Some votes require 6o...
Start Now!
Beat the Cheat.
Just ask Kari.
lol, Meathead is appropriate! Hoping for the best!
Why have elections? Up here we just trade one democrat for another. New Hampshire has the uni-party.
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