Posted on 03/21/2025 8:17:41 AM PDT by Signalman
Democrats may be in for a wake-up call in New Hampshire as early polling suggests Republicans could easily win a Senate seat in the blue state. Former Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH) by a sizable 53% to 44% margin in a hypothetical 2026 Senate race, according to a newly released poll.
While neither Sununu nor Pappas has formally declared their candidacy, both are expected to run, and the numbers show an early advantage for the GOP in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. If these figures hold, it would represent a major warning sign for Democrats heading into a crucial election year.
Sununu’s early lead is powered by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a commanding performance among independents (52%-44%), and a significant advantage with male voters (59%-39%) according to Quantus Insights. Even more troubling for Democrats, Sununu is holding his own with women voters, splitting the vote at 48%.
Another critical factor in Sununu’s strength is his appeal to non-college voters, where he holds a 58% lead. This demographic has played a growing role in shaping New Hampshire elections, particularly in working-class areas that have drifted rightward in recent years.
The numbers show a growing trend of Republican gains in the state. While former President Joe Biden carried New Hampshire by over seven points in 2020, President Donald Trump cut that margin to just 2.8 points against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
If that trend continues, it could spell trouble for Democrats trying to hold onto their Senate majority.
Despite Sununu’s early lead, Democrats are not out of the fight. Pappas remains a well-known figure in New Hampshire politics, having won multiple terms in the state’s First Congressional District, a swing seat that often flips between parties.
But he will need to overcome some significant hurdles.
The national mood in 2026 remains uncertain. President Trump holds a 43.8% approval rating in New Hampshire, with 48.5% disapproving.
While he has strong Republican support (83% approval), he remains underwater with independents (37% approve, 54% disapprove), a key voting bloc.
If national Democratic leaders struggle in 2026, Pappas may have difficulty distancing himself from the party’s broader challenges. Regardless, if Sununu maintains his popularity and crossover appeal, it will force Democrats to play defense in a state that has long been considered safe for their party.
Democrats have consistently won New Hampshire Senate races over the past two decades, but Sununu’s strong position suggests the political map may be shifting. If Republicans can flip the seat, it would represent a major blow to Democrats’ efforts to hold their Senate majority.
With nearly two years to go until the election, both parties will be watching closely to see if these early trends hold. However, Democrats can no longer take New Hampshire for granted.
He’s a RINO, but until we get true election security that’s all we can hope for from there.
Cheating is still in place and so is most of the funding
If these figures hold, it would represent a major warning sign for Democrats heading into a crucial election year.
Republican Sununu’s early lead in a potential Senate race is powered by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a commanding performance among independents (52%-44%), and a significant advantage with male voters (59%-39%) according to Quantus Insights. Even more troubling for Democrats, Sununu is holding his own with women voters, splitting the vote at 48%.
Another critical factor in Sununu’s strength is his appeal to non-college voters, where he holds a 58% lead. This demographic has played a growing role in shaping New Hampshire elections, particularly in working-class areas that have drifted rightward in recent years.
Democrats are not going to have a good 2024 in either the US Senate or the House.
“If that trend continues, it could spell trouble for Democrats trying to hold onto their Senate majority.”
What is this writer talking about?
2024 should be 2026.
Sununu gets elected and you have a threesome with the two witches Collins and Murkowski although the sexual ambiguity among the three makes it difficult to imagine how that would work out, but wisely I will save my imagination for other tasks.
I guess you could throw in Mitch for a foursome for bridge although it’s doubtful that dotard is mentally competent enough to do anything but sit in front of the dummy hand.
Sununu can win the Senate seat in NH easily and I think he wants to run. He’ll be much better than either Murkowski or Collins. If he runs, we FReepers should support him in the general election.
I saw him yesterday on TV and he was VERY PRO TRUMP!! I was SHOCKED!
“Sununu can win the Senate seat in NH easily and I think he wants to run.”
I don’t know much about him. Seems he went through a TDS episode a while back.
Have seen him in a few interviews and I think he’ll be attractive if he runs.
I live in NH in the Mel Thompson days. Long gone.
He bet on the wrong horse, birdbrain, now he is backing Trump. Doesn't inspire confidence but probably better than a Dem.
Then good for him. His and his father’s history ain’t good. But he’s the best we have for now anyway.
Democrats don't have a Senate majority.
Yeah, I get that, though it is the legacy of that NH that has made the current wealthy and well-educated state.
This could be a key Senate pick up.
I’ve heard 2026 is going to be tough for Democrats in Senate races. But let’s be cautious, as history tells us the party in power often loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections.
I have not studied the Senate races in detail. I’m sure we really have to go state by state, and look at each one individually.
Sununu: exhibit A as to when the Bush money runs out and you don’t know how to do anything except politics so you lift your skirt for the next political John.
Assume the birdbrain is Sununu, and not me? 😁
“Doesn’t inspire confidence but probably better than a Dem.”
That’s for sure!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.