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Notice Pollymarket spread?

Posted on 10/14/2024 5:49:58 AM PDT by Slingwing

Even Polymarket is skewed. If you note the buy/sell spread for Trumpster is -7.7 but when you look at Kameltoes the spread is +9.5 in the opposite direction. Totals should equal 100% but totals on buy is 99.2% and sell is 100.9%. I suspect there is bias in everything.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
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1 posted on 10/14/2024 5:49:58 AM PDT by Slingwing
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To: Slingwing

The spread is what the house wins. The house always wins.


2 posted on 10/14/2024 5:55:31 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (Don’t vote for anyone over 70 years old. Get rid of the geriatric politicians.)
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To: Slingwing
Just as the typical gambler in Vegas loses at the roulette wheel I think the average bettor loses on political bets. I'm more inclined to look at the polling firms with the most accurate records and add 1 to 2 points to DJT’s numbers because he's always underestimated in polls.
3 posted on 10/14/2024 5:56:02 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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To: Slingwing

What is surprising is that PredictIt.com, which has always skewed heavily to Kamala, suddenly switched to Trump 2 days ago, 54 to 49.


4 posted on 10/14/2024 6:18:29 AM PDT by montag813
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To: Slingwing

“I suspect there is bias in everything.”


smh


5 posted on 10/14/2024 7:06:40 AM PDT by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: Slingwing

It’s due to the bid-ask spread. It’s not uncommon for those binary “futures” markets for that to happen.


6 posted on 10/14/2024 7:18:42 AM PDT by BuchananBrigadeTrumpFan (If in doubt, it's probably sarcasm)
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To: montag813

At one point the Kackling hyena was between 43-45 range no higher than that so apparently today she made some gains. I don’t know how this polymarket works but you do have to consider she does have close to $1 billion to play with. Maybe her campaign people are manipulating the market behind closed doors to make it look like she’s gaining steam. Last week was a disaster for her and even the polymarkets showed it and now all of a sudden they have her at 47? Something’s off here folks. Manipulation? Probably.


7 posted on 10/14/2024 7:23:09 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Slingwing

That is an arb waiting to happen. It won’t last


8 posted on 10/14/2024 8:22:15 AM PDT by tanstaafl.72555
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To: Slingwing

How do they not get 100%?


9 posted on 10/15/2024 9:35:44 AM PDT by TBP (Decent people cannot fathom the amoral creulty of the Biden-Harris regime.)
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To: RoseofTexas

She is at 41% now and sinking like a bag of hammers


10 posted on 10/15/2024 9:38:00 AM PDT by Tuxedo (No quarter)
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