Posted on 10/14/2024 5:49:58 AM PDT by Slingwing
Even Polymarket is skewed. If you note the buy/sell spread for Trumpster is -7.7 but when you look at Kameltoes the spread is +9.5 in the opposite direction. Totals should equal 100% but totals on buy is 99.2% and sell is 100.9%. I suspect there is bias in everything.
The spread is what the house wins. The house always wins.
What is surprising is that PredictIt.com, which has always skewed heavily to Kamala, suddenly switched to Trump 2 days ago, 54 to 49.
“I suspect there is bias in everything.”
smh
It’s due to the bid-ask spread. It’s not uncommon for those binary “futures” markets for that to happen.
At one point the Kackling hyena was between 43-45 range no higher than that so apparently today she made some gains. I don’t know how this polymarket works but you do have to consider she does have close to $1 billion to play with. Maybe her campaign people are manipulating the market behind closed doors to make it look like she’s gaining steam. Last week was a disaster for her and even the polymarkets showed it and now all of a sudden they have her at 47? Something’s off here folks. Manipulation? Probably.
That is an arb waiting to happen. It won’t last
How do they not get 100%?
She is at 41% now and sinking like a bag of hammers
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