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Will America really pick Slow Joe over the best president we've had since Reagan? I don't think so.
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Most accurate model!!!
Stop before model kills again...
I hope that’s a good model. The following is what I’m hearing locally between women. Most of them are like zombies, their noses following the clucking from big television companies and socialist counterculture social media.
LADY TROUBLES Trump ‘losing female vote to Biden by a historic margin not seen in more than 50 years’ – but men still on his side
https://www.the-sun.com/news/979095/president-trump-joe-biden-female-vote-historic-margin/
Let’s hope it’s the Pocketbook model. But, honestly, I think all best are off with this election. Massive highs and lows in one term plus the polarizing effect of the media and the massive vote fraud that is likely in the works could change the equation dramatically.
In 2016, the Democrats thought they didn’t have to cheat to win. In 2020, they KNOW they will have to cheat to win. And so they will in every way possible. And the idiot GOP will not even challenge them over it.
if the dems can’t cheat nationwide with mail-in voting.
It will be bad enough they will attempt to do so with computer counted voting, they will be running mountains of fake ballots for dems through and that will be bad enough.
2020 Georgia primary voters: Dem 915,000; Rep 806,000
2016 Georgia primary voters: Dem 765,000: Rep 1,296,000
2020 Ohio primary voters: Dem 861,000; Rep 677,000
2016 Ohio primary voters: Dem 1,241,000; Rep 1,989,000
Sadly this is ridiculous.
First of all this model is based on the good economic numbers back in October 2019—not the economic disaster we have right now.
Secondly backfitting new models to what historical data shows is notoriously sketchy. By definition a model that is carved around past results is easy to find, but not at all proven in a predictive sense. A model only has real legitimacy if it has been used repeatedly to hypothesis results—and then repeatedly turned out to be correct.
As has been pointed out, this is “history data” that is, it is 10 months old. The election is five months away, which is a lifetime in political terms.
Today the stock market (S&P) is down from its high in February by 10% and likely to be much lower in November. Unemployment is at 13% today and most estimates seem to put it at 10% by election date. No president has been elected since WWII with anything close to a 10% unemployment rate.
I want Trump to be our next President as bad as the next person, but if you look at the facts today, it does not look good — at all.
Five months is a lifetime. While you might “feel” that Trump will be the next President, the facts don’t bear that out today.
President Trump will win.